Sunday, November 8, 2015

Post #15: First week of November

The GOP: Well, it finally happened. The press has been harping on the misfortunes of Jeb:( for some time now, while his numbers had been hovering in fourth place, neither gaining or retreating much. The polls this week really beat him up and he slid well below None of the Above and off the chart of this blog for the time being.

It's my view the media just got its teeth into a narrative about Jeb:( in disarray and never let go. I'll admit he sucks at running, but this field is chock full of guys (and gal) who suck at campaigning. The media might pick on him in particular because he has so much money, but what good does the money do right now? There are a few ads running aimed at New Hampshire and Iowa, but it's chump change compared to what December and January will look like.

Overtaking both him and the None of the Above threshold is Ted 'The Snake' Cruz. Cruz's progress is the dotted orange line with the black boxes. I will likely experiment with this to make it even more serpent-like in the next few weeks, Think coral snake or diamondback.

Non-politicians vs. politicians: A bad week for Carson and Trump was mirrored by good weeks for Rubio and Cruz, so the upward trend for the newbies has finally been halted for now. I have no idea if the self-inflicted wounds of Ben Carson will really hurt him with his base or not, but most happened after the last polls of the week, so the results of the next few weeks will be instructive. It's my view that evangelicals have decided in the majority Trump is not one of them, so I think votes Carson loses will go to a politician. Ted Cruz makes the right noises for the right-wing Christians, but I wouldn't be surprised if it also helps the fortunes of Mike Huckabee, who needs all the help he can get.

The Dems: One nice thing about the Democratic chart is that it is easy to read. Sanders made a slight gain, but I can't say that it's necessarily anything but the random wobble we see from week to week. It will be clearer if and when None of the Above gets down to about 10% again.

More news next week.

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