Final predictions, 7 November 2016

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Here is the map I am expecting for Clinton vs. Trump. Iowa and Nevada were both 50-50 toss-ups this morning, but new polls have split the difference, with Iowa leaning Trump and Nevada leading Clinton. Here's the numbers I am hanging my hat on.

Electoral college count
Clinton 323
Trump 215

This does not take into account two electors from the Clinton delegation in Washington saying they won't vote for her. Who knows, they might get kicked out of the club, we'll wait and see.  Here is the graph of my weekly snapshots. The odds right now are about 99% to 1% in Clinton's favor.

   I've read accounts that if Trump can't win, he'd like to out-perform Romney's 206. He's got a good chance to do that, but he isn't facing Obama, who is a much more popular figure in his eighth year than either Clinton or Trump.

The Senate prediction

This prediction is split into good news and bad news. The order depends on your political persuasion.


The GOP currently holds 54 seats to the Democratic/Independent coalitions' 46.  My algorithm considers the Democrats will hold all ten seats they are defending, including the close race in Nevada for the seat Harry Reid is vacating. The algorithm predicts three losses for the GOP in Illinois, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. There are four very close races still in the mix, but the forecast from my algorithm says the GOP will hold New Hampshire, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. This will mean the GOP will have 51 seats and retain control of the Senate. I do not have the resources to predict the House, but this doesn't look like the kind of landslide that can make that chamber switch sides.

My competitive side would love to see my algorithm go 90-0 in predictions, but if I miss any, I hope some of my errors give control of the Senate to the Democrats. It's hard to pay attention to anything but Trump this year, but I'll take this moment to remind people that the Republican Party has very few places where they part company with Trump on policy and they have decided they would rather take hostages than enact legislation through the democratic process. Hillary is not going to have an easy gig, but a Democratic Senate would make it a little easier.

Go out and vote and if you are on the left side of the political spectrum, vote down ticket (!) and hope for the best in the Senate. It will take a evil miracle for Trump to come back from his current position.
     

The Senate race 5 November 2016

My schedule for the weekend is Senate today and the Presidential races on Sunday, but I'll also have a final prediction on Monday night. My feeling is that there are only three races where changing a seat from one party to another looks like a lock now, and there are five races that are not completely decided. Here's the chances for how many senators will be in the Republican caucus this January.

Three races where the Republican seat is likely to switch.

Illinois
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: over 99.99%
Polls in the last three weeks: 3
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 3

Even before Mark Kirk went Full Metal Asshole in the debate (first mistake) and then apologized (for a 21st Century Republican, his second mistake), the polls showed him way behind. My system counts this as a lock. Eventually, my system will get one of these wrong, but it hasn't happened yet. Tammy Duckworth will be in the Senate in January if 1+1 = 2 still is true this Tuesday.



Wisconsin
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: 85%
Polls in the last three weeks: 9
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 9

The median poll says this shouldn't be a blowout, but it would be a real shock if this is wrong. Russ Feingold should be back.


Pennsylvania
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: 75%
Polls in the last week: 8
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 7

Pennsylvania has no early voting, so I change the freshness dating to one week. Knowing the universal popularity of absentee ballots, which are allowed in every state though some ask for an excuse ("I'm going to be on one of the moons of Saturn that week"), this is a part of the algorithm I might change. Even if I did, I do limit my data set to the most recent ten polls, and in that set the Democrat leads in eight, with one tie for the GOP and one lead. Katie McGinty should prevail over Pat Toomey in this all-Irish American donnybrook. For me, this is kind of a sweet reminder of old school East Coast politics.

Five races that are still not completely determined.

Indiana   
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: 50%
Polls in the last three weeks: 5
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat:2
Polls showing a tie: 1
Polls showing a lead for the Republican:2

Any new poll in the next 60 hours or so could change my current view of the race. Right now, with a tie in three weeks, I'd look at the latest three polls and give the nod to the Republicans. One new poll that doesn't show a tie between now an Monday night will tip the scale, which now favors the GOP.


New Hampshire
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: 50.73%
Polls in the last week: 8
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat:4
Polls showing a lead for the Republican: 4

As the designer of the algorithm in which I put my faith, this race shakes that faith to the core. Maggie Hassan's lead here is one due to her two point lead in one poll looks a little better than Kelly Ayotte's two point lead in another. Any new poll will turn the algorithm around. I'm only use eight polls, all from the last seven days because New Hampshire has no early voting. If I used more, it would be advantage Ayotte.

I really don't know what will happen here and right now, this is the race that decides the control of the Senate.

No pressure.


Missouri  

Confidence of Victory for the Republican: 59%
Polls in the last three weeks: 8
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 2
Polls showing a tie: 2
Polls showing a lead for the Republican: 4

It will take several polls to get my algorithm to favor upstart Jason Kander over incumbent Roy Blount. I consider this a hold for the GOP unless new data goes crazy in favor of the challenger in the next few days.
 

North Carolina  

Confidence of Victory for the Republican: 59%
Polls in the last three weeks:11
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat:3
Polls showing a tie: 2
Polls showing a lead for the Republican: 6

My best guess is a held seat for the Republicans. Only a pro-Democratic flurry between now and Monday night will sway me from this opinion.



Nevada  

Confidence of Victory for the Democrat: 66%
Polls in the last three weeks: 10
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 6
Polls showing a tie: 1
Polls showing a lead for the Republican:3

This is the only seat where the Democrats are playing defense in a serious way, hoping Cathy Cortez Masto can defend Harry Reid's vacant seat. The lines for early voting in Latino precincts are a data point worth noting, but they aren't in my algorithm. I'm assuming this prediction will not change between now and Monday night.


The dress rehearsal for the final prediction.

Democrats hold 10 of 10 seats.
Republicans lose 4 of 24 seats.
Senate numbers in January: 50 Dem and allies, 50 Republican

I don't do any work towards the prediction of the House, but my guess is the closeness of the Senate and the race for the White House is likely not enough for the Democrats to re-take the House from the GOP. Unless the Democrats can convince their base that elections happen every two years instead of every four, this will mean obstructionism will likely continue in Washington for the foreseeable future.

In some ways I hope I'm wrong, and I put no confidence in my guess about the House, but that's what the numbers say right now.

Tomorrow: the dress rehearsal of the final prediction for Clinton-Trump. (Spoiler alert: Clinton.)
 

The Senate Races 15 October 2016

The Senate races are polled much less often than the presidential election and there are fewer states I would consider true battlegrounds. The news was generally good for the Democrats' chances to re-take the Senate, returning the race to about the same shape it was two weeks ago.

Let's begin with the chart showing the odds for the number of GOP seats that will be held.

Instead of a two week look as usual, here's the last three week's numbers by category.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright:
15 October: 41.2%
8 October: 53.8%
1 October: 43.8%

Probability of a 50-50 split: 
15 October: 31.0%
8 October: 29.2%
1 October: 30.7%

Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back outright:
15 October: 28.8%
8 October:18.0%
1 October: 25.5%

Technically, a 50-50 Senate belongs to the party who has the vice president, and right now the presidential race is not much of a contest.

Here is the movement in the closest current races.

Nevada: Joe Heck still leads Catherine Cortez Masto in the race to replace Harry Reid, but this week one poll showed Cortez Masto ahead. This coincided with Heck withdrawing his support for Trump. Trump is likely to want revenge, but his first priority right now is proving all the women who have claimed he groped them are delusional or too ugly to be molested or both. We'll see if Trump can multi-task enough to hurt the GOP brand as much as he has hurt his own.

Current odds: 75%-25% GOP gain

Wisconsin: On the flip side, Wisconsin looked like a cakewalk for former Senator Russ Feingold to unseat Republican Ron Johnson, the race has tightened here and the median poll has a three point lead for the Democratic challenger.

Current odds: 85%-15% Democratic gain

Indiana: Challenger Evan Bayh has held the lead consistently, but the median poll says he only leads by three.

Current odds: 83%-16% Democratic gain

Missouri: My system uses the median poll and freshness dating. Any time a new poll is entered, any poll more than three weeks old is no longer considered. Early on, it looked like Roy Blount was a prohibitive favorite, but a mid month September poll showed challenger Jason Kander ahead. Now a mid-month October poll has Blount back in the lead in a close contest, all the older polls now being ignored. Even though I'm a libtard Commie, I assume the free market of the polling industry will be intrigued by something that looks like a close race and I will get more data to play with. So far in Missouri, the market has been disappointing.

Current odds: 66%-34% Republicans keep the seat

North Carolina: In these last three contests, the polling industry definitely treats these races as interesting. In North Carolina, ten polls have been taken in the last three weeks. Incumbent Republican Richard Burr has the lead in five polls, challenger Deborah Ross leads in three and two have an even split. While it has been going back and forth, Burr looks better in recent polls and my freshness dating factor could help in the weeks ahead as older polls fall out of the data set.

Current odds: 60%-40% Republicans keep the seat

New Hampshire: The race between GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte and Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan has five polls in the past three weeks. Each candidate has two polls showing her as the leader and the median has a flat-footed tie. Freshness dating doesn't favor either candidate.  This really looks like a nail-biter.


Current odds: 50%-50% Republicans on defense

Pennsylvania:In the past ten polls, Democratic challenger Katie McGinty leads in five, two show a tie and GOP incumbent Pat Toomey leads in the other three. Freshness dating moving forward gives Toomey a chance to climb up.

On a personal note, I love this all-Irish contest. It reminds me of old school East Coast politics. 
 
Current odds: 61%-39% Republicans lose the seat

The Senate Races 8 October 2016

The news for the GOP in the presidential race has been bad, but this week brought them good news in the battle to retain control of the Senate. One good poll for the Democratic challenger in Missouri has been outweighed by several good polls for the incumbent, and Evan Bayh's advantage in Indiana is slipping. The most likely single outcome is now 51 seats for the GOP. For four weeks, my system had a 50-50 split as the most likely result.

Here are the changes from last week.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 53.8%, up from 43.8%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 29.2%, down from 30.7% 
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 18.0%, down from 25.5%


My algorithm currently is set up to follow ten close races. As of this week, there are only four I consider truly close and the Republicans are playing defense in all of them.

Probable Republican pick-up: Harry Reid is retiring and Republican Joe Heck has held a consistent slim lead in the polls for months now in the race to replace Reid.

Very likely Republican losses: Russ Feingold in Wisconsin and Tammy Duckworth in Illinois are strong favorites to gain two seats for the Democrats. This would mean a net gain of one for the Democrats and the GOP would still have 53 senators.

Very likely holds for both parties: There's currently very little drama in Missouri or Florida for the Republican incumbents and even less drama in Colorado for the Democratic incumbent.

The four close races:
Indiana: Very little polling here and the most recent poll has Evan Bayh with a very slender one point lead, down from four in September and seven in August. My system now puts him as a 61% to 39% favorite, down from 85% to 15% just last month.

Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina: Many senate races have been polled only sporadically, but that is not true in these three states. In all three cases, there have been recent polls in favor of the Republican incumbents and others in favor of the Democratic challengers. Both Pennsylvania and North Carolina are flat-footed ties in my system and Kelly Ayotte's advantage in New Hampshire is about 51% to 49%. All three of these states are now in the Leaning Clinton camp. So far, the coattails on Hillary's pantsuits have been literally and figuratively very short.

Back tomorrow with news on the presidential race. Spoiler alert: all the competent aggregators agree on the general trend, though there is disagreement on the current odds.

The Senate Races 24 September 2016

This week's polling has been very good for the Democrats in the Senate. Last week, the Republicans looked to be favorites to keep their majority, but good news for the Democrats in North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania has turned the numbers around. Last week, the single most likely event was a 51-49 advantage for the GOP. Now the most likely event is a 50-50 tie.

Here are the changes from last week.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 37.5%, down from 54.3%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 32.1%, up from 29.4%
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 28.6%, up from 16.4%

Races that look close.
1. In North Carolina last week, incumbent Richard Burr was ahead of challenger Deborah Ross by 87% to 13%. This week shows a 50% to 50% tie.

2. Missouri is now the second closest race, though the numbers there did not move. The odds right now are 57% to 43% in favor of incumbent Blount over Democrat Jason Kander.
 
3. In Pennsylvania, challenger Katie McGinty is now ahead of GOP incumbent Pat Toomey 63% to 37%. Last week, this was a 50% to 50% call. McGinty looked like a favorite in August.

4. Kelly Ayotte still leads her Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, but the odds have slipped to 69% to 31%, marginally down from 72% to 28%.

5. Nevada is next closest and it favors the Republican Joe Heck over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, vying for the seat being vacated by Harry Reid. This would be a gain for the GOP. The probabilities of victory in an election held today are 74% for Heck and 26% for Cortez Masto, which is a gain for Heck over last week's 72% to 28% numbers. While the numbers have been relatively close, Heck has had the lead in five of the polls taken in the past three months, while one poll showed a tie.

6. Two new polls in Illinois show challenger Tammy Duckworth still leading incumbent GOP senator Mark Kirk, but the race got somewhat closer, now at 82% to 18% chance for the Democrats to gain a seat here.

7. In Indiana, incumbent Todd Young leads trails challenger Evan Bayh. This would be a loss of a seat for the GOP. The current odds are 14% to 86%, respectively, unchanged from last week.

In a race that looked close but no longer does, Russ Feingold's probability of victory has moved back over the 99% mark, a big improvement over last week's 89% to 11%. This would be a gain for the Democrats.

These races would say the Republicans are most likely to lose three or four seats, which would put them at either 51 or 50 seats, as shown in the line graph above. If the election were held today, it's in the realm of possibility the GOP would be the minority at 49 seats. Even that number could improve for the Democrats over the next month and half. It's not uncommon to see the public change their views in October in Senate races, when larger numbers begin to focus on these down ticket contests in a presidential election year.

Back tomorrow with the numbers in the presidential race.

The Senate Races 17 September 2016

There has now been polling in Arizona and John McCain looks comfortably in control. The changes this week that have made the most difference are in New Hampshire, where incumbent Kelly Ayotte has become the favorite, and Missouri, where Roy Blount's re-election in no longer a sure thing. 

Here are the changes from last week.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 54.3%, up from 45.5%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 29.4% down from 34.2%
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 16.4%, down from 20.1%

Races that look close.
1. In Pennsylvania, GOP incumbent Pat Toomey was trailing challenger Katie McGinty in August, but is now in a flat-footed tie at 50% to 50%. These numbers are the same as last week's.

2. A surprising poll in Missouri says Jason Kander is now in a race with one term senator Roy Blount. Articles are crediting Kander's ad in which he assembles a firearm blindfolded, one of those valuable skills every senator from Missouri needs, I suppose. The odds right now are 57% to 43% in favor of Blount. Prior to this week it was about 91% to 9% in Blount's favor.

3. Nevada is next closest and it favors the Republican Joe Heck over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, vying for the seat being vacated by Harry Reid. This would be a gain for the GOP. The probabilities of victory in an election held today are 72% for Heck and 28% for Cortez Masto, which is a gain for Heck over last week's 56% to 44% numbers.

4. New Hampshire is the third closest and Kelly Ayotte has pulled ahead of her Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan. The odds here are 72% to 28%, respectively. This change is the biggest reason for the overall improvement in the Republican chances in the upper chamber.

5. In Indiana, incumbent Todd Young leads trails challenger Evan Bayh. This would be a loss of a seat for the GOP. The current odds are 14% to 86%, respectively, unchanged from last week.

6. In North Carolina, incumbent Richard Burr leads challenger Deborah Ross. This would be a hold of a seat for the GOP, so no net gain. The current odds are 87% to 13%, also unchanged from last week.

7. In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold is a solid favorite to beat Ron Johnson at 89% to 11%. This would be a gain for the Democrats, and the number is yet again unchanged for last week.

These races would say the Republicans are most likely to lose three or maybe four seats, which would put them at either 51 or 50 seats, as shown in the line graph above. I have set 95% as the arbitrary mark for a solid lead, but in my experience it's the races that are closer than 75% to 25% that are actually contests in doubt. Pennsylvania, Missouri, Nevada and New Hampshire would count by that standard.

Back tomorrow with the numbers in the presidential race.

The Senate Races10 September 2016

The polls this week mainly favored the Republicans. The race I would like to see most is Arizona, where McCain faces a stronger than usual challenger.

Here are the changes from last week:

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 45.5%, up from 26.1%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 34.2%, slightly down from from 34.3%
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 20.1%, down from 36.8%

Races that look close.
1. In Pennsylvania, GOP incumbent Pat Toomey was trailing challenger Katie McGinty, but is now in a flat-footed tie at 50% to 50%.
2. Nevada is next closest and it favors the Republican Joe Heck over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, vying for the seat being vacated by Harry Reid. This would be a gain for the GOP. The probabilities of victory in an election held today are 56% for Heck and 44% for Cortez Masto.
3. New Hampshire is the third closest and Kelly Ayotte is trailing her Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan. This would be a loss for the GOP. The odds here are 33% to 67%, respectively.
4. In Indiana, incumbent Todd Young leads trails challenger Evan Bayh. This would be a loss of a seat for the GOP. The current odds are 14% to 86%, respectively.
5. In North Carolina, incumbent Richard Burr leads challenger Deborah Ross. This would be a hold of a seat for the GOP, so no net gain. The current odds are 87% to 13%.
6. In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold is a solid favorite to beat Ron Johnson, but the current Confidence of Victory number is slightly under the arbitrary 90% mark at 89% to 11%. This would be a gain for the Democrats.



These six races would say the Republicans are most likely to lose three or maybe four seats, which would put them at either 51 or 50 seats, these are the two most likely results, as shown by the line graph above.

Back tomorrow with the numbers in the presidential race.