Tuesday, December 29, 2015
1. On the Democratic side, there is so little data to track, adding O'Malley to the mix doesn't make the graph any harder to read.
2. Jeb:( is not making a surge, the NotA has taken a plunge. Jeb:( has actually gone down, from 5.5% in November to 5.0% in December, not even half the very weak numbers of The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson.
As for the leaders, the news gets better and better for the two de facto front runners, Donald Trump and Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, while Rubio and Carson are slipping slightly.
This will be the last report on the blog in 2015 and on Sunday the 3 of January the weekly reports will begin again. I wish all my readers a Happy New Year and the polling starts to get serious, especially in the first two states to report.
Monday, December 28, 2015
Tomorrow: the monthly averages from Iowa polling.
Sunday, December 27, 2015
1. Donald Trump is obviously leading, but I don't know what the ceiling of his upward trend is, or even if the trend is truly still upward.
2. Ted 'The Snake' Cruz has a true upward trend. I can't say that with certainty about anybody else whose numbers are above the None of the Above threshold.
3. The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson is still falling, though the rate of change this week was less than worst tumbles this month.
Here's what I know about the stuff I don't show.
1. Chris Christie and Jeb:( are in a flat-footed tie for fifth/sixth place. The Christie camp should spin this as good news. The Jeb:( camp... I have no idea how bad things are there, and I worked at failed start-ups in Silicon Valley back in the day.
Tomorrow, the New Hampshire numbers.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Here are the changes in the numbers from the previous December averages.
Cruz: up 1.4 percentage points
Trump: up 1.1 percentage points
Rubio: up 0.1 percentage points
Carson: down 1.1 percentage points
None of the Above: down 1.4 percentage points
As you can see, the sum of these five categories have changed only a little, so there hasn't been much movement in the numbers of the folks not mentioned here. The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson is in serious free fall, but so is None of the Above. Jeb:( is now above None of the Above, but only slightly. If he has another good week and NotA stays low, he might get on the graph as his Festivus present.
Hillary: up 0.6 percentage points
Bernie: up 0.3 percentage points
None of the Above: down 1.1 percentage points
O'Malley: up 0.2 percentage points
The gap isn't closing for Sanders, but once again, I have to say Iowa is a caucus state and by their nature, they are tough to predict. I have no idea how well organized the two main candidates are in Iowa, but they are pros and I expect they have boots on the ground in sufficient numbers. The big question will be supporter enthusiasm and that means Bernie has a chance to surprise.
More numbers next week.
Monday, December 21, 2015
None of the Above:-1.8
Since I am supposed to be tracking the candidates above the None of the Above threshold, it's time to say goodbye to The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson. This chart shows him in fifth, but as of the latest polls, he is now in seventh, trailing Jeb:( and John Kasich. Barring a miracle, his numbers will not be part of the picture next week in New Hampshire, though he does remain in fourth place in Iowa and well ahead of the guys jockeying for fifth.
None of the Above -2.5
Of course, Iowa comes before New Hampshire and a good showing in the caucuses will effect the campaign coverage at the very least. A view of both races in The Hawkeye State tomorrow.
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Tropical Depression Trump is reaching hurricane force and only Ted 'The Snake' Cruz is making any headway.
Politicians vs Non-politicians: This particular graph is meaning less and less as time goes on, as Fiorina is still on a slow slide after her spectacular crash and Carson is still mid-spectacular crash. I think it might make more sense to start tracking Trump vs. The Next Three, because this week for the first time he is out-polling Cruz, Rubio and Carson combined.
(Note: for anyone terrified that sanity cannot prevail, the state level polls in Hew Hampshire and Iowa tell a different story.)
Tomorrow: the polls from New Hampshire.
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
National polls: Clinton +25.1%
New Hampshire polls: Sanders +4%
Iowa polls: Clinton +15.8%
This small sample size says more scrutiny is not a good thing for Hillary and can give the Sanders fans some hope. As for O'Malley supporters, the numbers right now say... m'eh.
Cruz: up 12.2 points
Carson: down 8.4 points
None of the Above: down 2.7 points
The net effect looks like lots of Iowans are changing their minds and their new choice is Ted 'The Snake' Cruz. Of course, Trump is apoplectic about the bad news. I would not put it past Trump to simply buy a few thousand eligible Iowans for some single day payment in the $100 range to boost his numbers, though it will make his true believers feel like saps for showing up for free.
Making people feel like saps is standard operating procedure for Trump, so I don't think he'll lose any sleep over it.
More news next week.
Monday, December 14, 2015
On the Republican side, Donald Trump does have a lead in the Granite State, though not quite as dominant as his lead nationwide, and it's Marco Rubio in second. Ben Carson's fall from grace in New Hampshire is much steeper than his national slippage and he is currently hovering below the None of the Above numbers.
Chris Christie is currently in fourth in New Hampshire and just barely behind Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, much better than his anemic national numbers putting him in sixth place, barely in the lead of the group hovering around 3%.
Not shown on the chart are Jeb:(, tied with Carson at 7.3%, and Kasich, polling at 7%. They aren't part of the picture because they haven't been above None of the Above either in November or December. If they improve, they could be included in the overall picture.
And then we have the Democrats, where we see our first inversion. Bernie Sanders is in the lead this month, though that only means two polls so far. (The paucity of polls is the reason I'm going with the monthly picture. This might change in January.) I can't predict if the press will give Sanders more coverage if he wins and makes it a horse race - the press loves horse races- or if they will accept the conventional wisdom that winning in New Hampshire is not a surprise because he's from Vermont. I think it will be the former, and if he pulls off a win in Iowa as well, then the press will run with the "Hillary's in trouble" meme for sure.
What's Bernie's situation in Iowa? Stop by tomorrow to find out.
Sunday, December 13, 2015
The advantage the non-politicians (Trump, Carson, Fiorina) have over the rest of the GOP field shrunk a little. Given Carson's extended slump and Fiorina's hovering around 3%, I think these numbers could tighten up even more. Of course, Trump is still getting good news in the polls, but so are Cruz, Rubio and occasionally some of the folks in the back of the pack, notably Chris Christie in New Hampshire.
I would also like to say I predicted in mid-November that the advantage for non-politicians would continue a downward turn by Chanukah, and now that it's Chanukah, I can a small victory in a very mild prediction.
New features this week: It is my experience from 2011-12 that the national polls give a rough idea, but the state polls are where the real action is. Accordingly, I will be publishing three times a week starting tomorrow.
Sundays: Still the same stuff I've been doing since August, national poll averages for the week for the GOP and Dems, as well as tracking the Non-politicians vs. politicians on the Republican side.
Mondays: Monthly averages for the top candidates in New Hampshire in both parties.
Tuesdays: Monthly averages for the top candidates in Iowa in both parties.
As a teaser, I can say that each state has bad news for at least one front runner.
Tune in tomorrow!
Sunday, December 6, 2015
Ben Carson plummeted last week, but he came back up. His general trend is still negative, but he is back in second place, with Ted "The Snake" Cruz in third and Marco Rubio in fourth. Jeb:( is still in fifth at around 6%. No one in the lower tier is above 3% this week. I speculated Mike Huckabee might make a run if Carson's numbers slipped, but his numbers just sit there like an old dead animal. I don't know how anyone now polling less than Jeb:( is going to make their mark in the next two months, and anyone who stinks the place out in both Iowa and New Hampshire is pretty much toast.
The one thing that makes me trust this week's three polls over last week's three polls is that None of the Above also bounced back. The big drop was due to a poll that said the undecided vote was at -2%. This is the perfect example of why I like more polls on which to base a weekly average, mainly to give the outliers less power. That said, Trump's alleged slump is based on a single outlier as well. We may not have seen Peak Trump yet.
Another update next week.