Sunday, January 31, 2016
Entire month's median lead: 2 points for Clinton
Last two weeks' median lead: 2 points for Clinton
Last week's median lead: 2.5 points for Clinton
Of course, tomorrow is the proof of the pudding.
The median lead for the Republicans has not been as consistent.
Entire month's median lead: 2 points for Trump
Last two weeks' median lead: 5 points for Trump
Last week's median lead: 3 points for Trump
Both races are proportional, so all four candidates should get delegates. The big question is about organization, especially Trump's. News stories agreed in December he had no organization to speak of, but in January, he clearly paid for some boots on the ground, though stories disagree on how good that organization is.
Tomorrow, it's a report on the New Hampshire numbers, Tuesday a re-cap of Iowa and Wednesday, the national polls.
I've been keep tabs for quite a while. Now the shit gets real.
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
The next time I post these numbers, Iowa will be in the books. Conventional wisdom is that outside of Iowa and New Hampshire, only political junkies like me (and since you are reading this, you) are paying attention, though I do not know how anyone who watches the news can avoid hearing about Trump. Maybe when more people take an interest, all those good and sensible conservatives George Will and David Brooks love so much will put their support behind one of the "mainstream" Republicans, but that is a big maybe. When I started this blog, I didn't think Trump would still be leading in late January, and certainly didn't think his lead would be so commanding. I thought he was going to be one of a series of flashes in the pan before a party favorite like Rubio or Jeb:( finally got enough delegates. I'm slowly getting used to the idea that the fever that grips the right wing voters is not going to break soon.
Next update: the last numbers from Iowa will be posted on Sunday. See you then.
Monday, January 25, 2016
I will admit that I always thought Trump would have faded by now, but he plays the media like a violin and his voters have not been turned off by anything he has said or done so far. Chuck Grassley introduced him to a crowd in Iowa, and though Grassley didn't endorse him, if the old school Republicans will be seen on the same stage with him, it's a sign the establishment is moving forward in its stages of grief. Bob Dole made a statement condemning Ted 'The Snake' Cruz - it looks like the 'nobody likes him' meme isn't an overstatement - and said Trump would be better than Cruz.
Here's a tiny piece of math the establishment could cling to. In this polling data, the two main outsiders add up to 41.9% and the four establishment Republicans add up to 41.8%. (I'm not counting Fiorina and Carson anymore, as their campaigns show no signs of life.) The thing is no one has really mounted an Anyone But Trump campaign effectively, so even when people drop out - and I expect several people to drop out after Iowa and New Hampshire - even voters whose first choice was someone traditional might switch over to Trump or Cruz, the least palatable candidates in the eyes of the establishment.
To quote Nassim Taleb, a writer I intensely dislike, this does look like a Black Swan event.
Sunday, January 24, 2016
A lot of GOP races are winner take all, but Iowa is proportional. Unless there is a huge upset, both Trump and Cruz together should get the lion's share of the delegates and the difference in number between them will be minimal.
The Democratic party process in Iowa is more convoluted than the Republican, the Feb. 1 caucus being just the first of a three step process.
Tomorrow, a report on the New Hampshire numbers.
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Iowa is less than two weeks away, and I expect nothing dramatic in the national polls until then, barring some major scandal.
Back next Sunday with more, starting with Iowa.
Monday, January 18, 2016
Tomorrow: the national polls.
Sunday, January 17, 2016
So the average of the five polls now has Hillary with a 0.6 point lead. Since this is effectively a two candidate race, I can use my Confidence of Victory method and give Hillary about a 70% chance to come out ahead using the median poll, where her lead is 42% to 40% in a poll of 504 likely voters. As more polls come in, these numbers are very likely to change, but in what direction I cannot say.
A story on the fivethirtyeight.com website rates the Cruz ground game as much better than Trump's, but for a news organization that prides itself on using math well, the method used for this story is slipshod.
A number that looks unimportant that I still find interesting is the slowing rate of decline for The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson in Iowa. In New Hampshire, his numbers are down among the no-hopers, but in Iowa he is still dominating establishment guys like Christie, Kasich and Jeb:(, all of whom are in the race for second in the Granite State. Once again, the ground game can make a big difference in Iowa, where turnout is tiny compared to New Hampshire, so I would actually be surprised if the polls are a perfect predictor of the candidate's relative positions when The Voters of the Corn actually come out on February 1st.
Tomorrow, the numbers from New Hampshire.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
I'm confident there will be more polling data by next week, but right now this is the most dramatic polling news of the new year.
More polls next weekend.
Monday, January 11, 2016
There were only five New Hampshire polls in December and so far, there are only three in January. The story hasn't changed much since the change from November. Bernie Sanders holds a small but steady lead over Hillary.
The race for first place has no drama at all, but there is a fierce competition for second through sixth. Right now, Marco Rubio is alone in second at 13.3% in an average of four polls, while four candidates - Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, Jeb:(, Chris Christie and John Kasich - are all within spitting distance of one another at around 10%. I am breaking the rules I set for myself to mention everyone above None of the Above, but the crowd between 3% and 5% - Rand Paul, The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina - don't show any signs of gaining any traction.
Tomorrow: The earliest polls from Iowa.
Sunday, January 10, 2016
I didn't report last week because there was a polling drought during Christmas week, and the first week in January is only slightly better. I absolutely do not consider any change from the grid point before this one a trend. The only thing that looks clear is Trump is in first nationally and Ted 'The Snake' Cruz is in second. The top four here are the top four in Iowa, except that Cruz is ahead of Trump. In New Hampshire, Carson is not in the picture, but Jeb:(, Kasich and Christie are above None of the Above. More details in the next few days.
On the other hand, I will give a teaser that Sanders does look like he has some good news in the early states. To find out more, come back tomorrow and Tuesday for New Hampshire and Iowa, respectively.