Monday, March 14, 2016

Thoughts on March 15

I call my system Confidence of Victory. I say the Pollster website from Huffington Post use Confidence of Lead, and I wish I had thought of that first. The thing is I am not at all confident of predictions made off of polls in primaries, so I can't attach numbers to anything tomorrow, but I get still give a basic sketch of each situation, starting with the big winner-take-all contest on the GOP side.

Florida: If the polls can be trusted, and it would take a Michigan level upset for them to be wrong, Trump has smacked down Rubio just as hard as he smacked down Jeb:( earlier this year. Nearly all the polls say Trump will get over 40% of the votes while Rubio will end up with less than 30%. If you have seen Rubio on the stump this last week, it looks like he talked to his numbers guys and he believed them.

Rubio the Savior is going down in the books with Lieberman's Joe-mentum, a truly sad showing.

Ohio: The polls say Kasich is a much better favorite son than Rubio, and the race for first in Ohio could go either way, Kasich or Trump. Sam Wang, the poll aggregator I trust most, says losing Ohio helps Trump because it could keep Kasich in the game longer, diluting the anti-Trump vote. if Kasich wins then drops out immediately, then Trump's path to the first ballot gets much murkier.

Illinois: The polling is very spotty, but Trump appears to have an advantage over Cruz. What the reaction from Trump voters to all the craziness there this month is anybody's guess, but I agree with the folks that say all publicity is good publicity for Trump, at least in the primaries.

The Democrats:  No winner take all contests tomorrow on the Democratic side, so wins and losses will not be as dramatic. I would not be surprised by a Sanders victory in either Illinois or Missouri. Florida looks like a lock for Clinton and if Sanders wins Ohio, that would be considered an upset.

Back on Wednesday with post mortem.

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