Sunday, October 4, 2015

Post #10:
The week of September 26 to October 2

 Dems: I always start with the GOP, so I decided to switch up this week. This week, I ask the question "Have we seen peak _____?" Both Clinton and Sanders are at lower numbers than their highest, but I'm not convinced that one or both of them can see higher numbers in the future. It all depends on Joe Biden shitting or getting off the pot.

Back in early September, there were some polls that didn't list Biden as an option, but for about a month now, his name is included in every poll and he is doing well. This week he is at 19.7%, well above None of the Above, but I'm taking him at his word that he hasn't made up his mind and looks more likely to say no than yes. When he is no longer an option, I expect both Clinton and Sanders to get a boost.

GOP:  On the Republican side, the question is "Have we seen Peak Everybody?" Obviously that is impossible, but this week the only candidate we follow who made a gain over last week is Rubio. For the non-politicians, each had a slow leak, but the three of them are still seriously out-polling everyone who has actually held elected office.

Non-politicians: 51.2%
Politicians: 38.2%
None of the Above: 9.6%

I am also announcing that JeBush Bush is now on double secret probation. For the third week in a row he has been below the average for None of the Above, and if that's true next week, he gets his numbers turned off. It really does seem that every time he opens his mouth, things get a little worse. No one below None of the Above is showing anything like a surge, but Ted Cruz is holding steady at around 6%. For the GOP voter in the "I want a jerk, but I'm not sure Trump is the jerk for me" category, I think a lot of them might find Cruz is just who they are looking for.

Back next week with more numbers from both races.

1 comment:

  1. Given that Walker, upon his return, is immediately trying to destroy what's left of Wisconsin's civil service, I am hoping everyone else flames out to the point that the Kochs pay to re-insert him into the race...