Sunday, October 11, 2015

Post #11:
The week of October 3 to 9

 GOP: A confession. My weeks for polling end on Friday, but sometimes a poll gets reported late. Last week on Sunday it looked like nearly everyone we are watching was deflating, but a late poll helped both Trump and Carson. Now Trump is on a two-week surge, though it looks nothing like big August boom.  Can he reach his previous heights? As long as the media focus on him, I can't see him falling farther than second, and I have serious doubts about Ben Carson being able to stand up to the withering scrutiny he is about to get over his incessant comparison of everything to Hitler.

The guy who looked to be in trouble last week was JeBush Bush, but instead the polls were unkind to Carly Fiorina. She is not only below None of the Above, but a little downward pressure and she could sink below Mr. Waiting in the Wings, Ted Cruz.  If that happens, her orange line with the dung colored triangle will disappear.

I have written it before and I write it now again. When Trump and Carson deflate as I think they have to eventually, I see Ted Cruz as the standard bearer for the truly pissed off. No other candidate who holds office embraces the nihilistic wing of the GOP like Cruz, and when votes actually start getting counted next year, I think he will be a force.

Dems: Hillary is up, Bernie is up and that means... Joe Biden is down. The first debate is on Tuesday and Joe won't be there. Some think this will help him, but I am not convinced of this. I think it's much more likely one of the three guys at the bottom end will make a good impression and get a boost, though I can't say which one.

I expect Biden to make a real statement by the end of the month and I expect it to be no. I have no idea what happens then, but I certainly don't think Hillary is inevitable, any more than JeBush Bush is.  We have a long way to go and there are a lot of possibilities.

I mean except for a President named Donald, Benjamin or Carly.  That's just crazy talk.

Back next week with more.


  1. I have to say I'm looking forward to the Dem debate, and as a political zombie-junkie, even I have little tolerance for them. But Bernie and Hillary have both been very good about sticking to the issues, both of them are moving the right (I mean LEFT) way on their positions, and while Ander-Coop won't be as good a moderator as Kindly Doc Maddow or Jon Stewart would be, he promises to be better at being issue-oriented than on the ones on the Insane side of our political parties.

    1. I am looking forward to it as well, though I'll be teaching until just before 7:00. I'll have to watch it after the fact.

  2. I didn't watch, but read all the reviews and saw all the clips. I am hoping you spend some time commenting on it Prof, interested to see what you thought.

    Myself, I am happy that the two frontrunners acquitted themselves so well. I am also happy that the whole thing looked so competent and focused on real issues for the most part.

    Anderson Cooper was decent, although he was a Village Pundit in that he kept trying to bait the candidates; to their credit, they refused to engage, which (like in WarGames) is the only way to win.

    So the viewership was less than the Republican debate. Like an orderly traffic jam attracts less rubbernecking than a twisted metal accident.

    But Bernie's response on the emails was not only perfect, but made Hillary his buddy. When she is elected, he will find he has a WAY higher level of influence, which will be good for all of us...