I will leave my commentary for the explanations of the numbers this week. Let's jump straight to the digits. States that have changed position are in italics and underlined. If they are red, they moved towards Trump and if blue, they moved towards Clinton.
Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY ID WV OK AL NE KY KS UT LA TN SD AR TX AK MT MS IN
Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): SC MO GA AZ
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): IA NV NC OH OR FL
Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN ME CT NM PA MI VA DE WA NH NJ WI CO NY MD CA IL RI VT HI DC MA
The current count:
The changes that look temporary: Utah went to solid Trump on the strength of a single poll from the only company putting Trump in the lead. Even Trump on the stump knows Utah is going to be tough. Trump is the stereotype of what Mormons think non-Mormons are like.
Missouri had a couple polls with Trump up by 10 in July, now his lead is 1 or 2. South Carolina is polled for the first time and Trump is up by 2. Prior history says these are comfortable wins for the Republicans. If Trump is truly struggling in those states, Clinton's electoral count could climb past 400, a number I still consider beyond reasonable expectations until serious evidence proves otherwise.
Iowa and Ohio are battleground states that made moves towards Clinton. North Carolina went from solid Clinton to leaning Clinton. They all deserve to be battleground right now. Again, evidence might prove otherwise over time. It should be noted that right now, Pennsylvania is NOT a battleground, but instead a regularly polled state where Hillary Clinton has had a comfortable lead for about a month.
The changes that looks permanent: Wisconsin is solid Clinton now and it will likely stay there. I know I have at least one reader who will be happy about this. New Hampshire is now solidly Clinton based on all the three polls taken in August. I'm starting to believe it's really in the Clinton camp, which is a little odd. Vermont and Hew Hampshire are neighbors and are usually worlds apart. Vermont is the hippie state, while New Hampshire is the "Get off my lawn!" state.
And now the odds if the election were held today, based on 32,768 possible outcomes in the fifteen closest states in terms of expected value. (Note: a lot of these fifteen states are not truly battleground, they are just the closest to being competitive.)
The fifteen states that have the most sway:
GA NC OH FL AZ IA NV MO SC OR MN IN CT PA ME
Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
In the words of the comic books, this is not a hoax, this is not an imaginary story. Trump's odds in an election held today are 3 chances in 10,000 or 3,332 to 1. I knew that moving Wisconsin out of the leaning Clinton column could make a difference and sure enough, it did. My best guess is that Oregon belongs in the Solid Clinton column as well.
In closing, don't let anyone tell you this is close, even if his name is Nate Silver. Right now, this is an ass-kicking and Hillary Clinton has room to improve.
Another report next Sunday.