Saturday, August 27, 2016

The Senates Races
27 August 2016

We start with the basic numbers. The Republicans have 54 Senators as of today. A total of 34 seats are up for grabs, 24 of them currently held by Republicans and 10 held by Democrats.

Republican seat overview: 12 of the 24 races have polling data. Of those 12, the Democratic challengers are favored to win 5 and the Republicans to hold the position in the remaining 7.

Democratic seat overview: 4 of the 10 races have polling data, Of those, 3 look good for the Democrats and Nevada looks close, currently favoring the Republican candidate.

The overall odds looking at the ten closest races. The most likely results right now show a tight race for control. My model looks at the 10 closest races are calculates odds for 1,024 possible outcomes checked as of this morning. There is a 35.99% chance of the Republicans having 49 Senators and a 34.27% chance of having both parties caucuses at 50. The next most like outcome is the Republicans having with 48 seats, which has a 14.71% outcome.

The races where the current leader has less than a 90% Confidence of Victory. There are only three races I would consider close, given the history of how often the Confidence of Victory method has predicted the correct winner.

Nevada: Harry Reid is retiring and the race to replace him is close. As of the most recent polls, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto trails Republican Joe Heck, the Confidence of Victory numbers at 44.1% to 55.9%.

North Carolina: The Republican incumbent Richard Burr has a slight lead over the Democratic challenger Deborah Ross. The Confidence of Victory numbers right now put the race at 66.5% chance for Burr and a 33.5% chance for Ross.

Pennsylvania: Here, the Republican incumbent Pat Toomey is trailing the Democratic challenger Katie McGinty. McGinty's CoV is currently at 77.3%, compared to Toomey's 22.7%.

Slight spoiler alert for tomorrow's numbers. Clinton is still a prohibitive favorite using my model, though not quite as dominant as she was last week, barring polling changes tomorrow. If anyone is considering sending money to candidates on either the Democratic or Republican side, giving to specific Senate races or to the Republican National Senate Committee or the Democratic National Senate Committee is a way to get more bang for your buck. Control of the Senate really is a horse race right now, while control of the White House is more like the beating of a dead horse.

New post on Sunday looking at the race between Clinton and Trump.


No comments:

Post a Comment