A lot of polls this week, some favoring Trump and some favoring Clinton. The one big switch from last week is Iowa moving from Leaning Clinton to Leaning Trump. Several states that became Leaning Trump with the first flood of polls from Ipsos have moved back to where they belong in the Solid Trump camp, but some others move form Solid Trump to Leaning Trump, and there's a good chance that's where they belong. The states that I think are currently misplaced are Kentucky and Montana, that are only in the Leaning Camp because of single polls with small sample sizes. On the Clinton side of the ledger, Oregon, Michigan and Connecticut move to under 95% Confidence of Victory, but all of them could easily move back up over that threshold in the next few weeks.
Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY MS TN SD ID LA AL AK KS IN WV TX MO OK
Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): GA AR AZ NE KY UT MT SC IA
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): NC ME NV OH NM WI FL OR MI CT
Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): PA CO NH MN WA IL DE NJ MA VA MD NY RI VT DC CA HI
The current count
My system has very specific rules for toss-ups and those rules make them rare. During the week Iowa went from Leaning Clinton to Toss-up to Leaning Trump. I have no idea who will be favored to win that state two months from now, but if I was forced to put up a wager, I'd put a small amount on Clinton.
And now we get to the odds of winning. My system takes the current numbers and chooses the 15 states most likely to sway the outcome, so the list changes from week to week.
The fifteen states that have the most sway:
NC FL OH SC IA AZ WI KY GA UT NV ME MI NE OR
Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
I am rounding the probabilities to the nearest hundredth of a percent because if I rounded to the nearest tenth, Trump's chances would have rounded to zero three times in the past five weeks, including today, when he barely rounded up to 0.05%.
How can Trump gain a state and get much worse odds than last week? In the words of The Mighty Monarch "Let him take all the pawns he needs!" Right now, the straightest path for Trump to victory would be to hold on to every state where he has a current lead - which is not a sure thing - and then to win North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and one of three smaller states, either Maine, Nevada or New Mexico. Iowa has six electoral votes, so as the race stands right now, it's not a vital component. If Wisconsin changes and becomes more difficult to win than Florida is, even the pawns will be important, but that is not the case right now.
Short rant: Nate Silver's website is making this race seem much closer than it is and it seriously pisses me off. The Senate is close, Clinton-Trump isn't. I understand the need for clicks, but I'd rather the political journalists spent more time explaining how vital the Senate is to both parties and focusing on those contests, because that really is an exciting horse race that could go either way two months from now.
Clinton-Trump is exactly what it looks like. A professionally run campaign against a gang of corrupt goofballs who have no idea how to expand their voting pool. In other words, a major ass-kicking. Maybe something will change in the next two months, but it is extremely unlikely to change because Trump becomes a better campaigner. He loves ranting in front of adoring crowds, with not even the slightest clue he's not helping his cause. Sanders loved the crowds as well and he had actual professionals working for him. He didn't beat Clinton and Trump doesn't look likely to beat her, either.
Back next Saturday with another look at the very tight race for control of the Senate.