Saturday, September 10, 2016

The Senate Races
10 September 2016

The polls this week mainly favored the Republicans. The race I would like to see most is Arizona, where McCain faces a stronger than usual challenger.

Here are the changes from last week:

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 45.5%, up from 26.1%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 34.2%, slightly down from from 34.3%
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 20.1%, down from 36.8%

Races that look close.
1. In Pennsylvania, GOP incumbent Pat Toomey was trailing challenger Katie McGinty, but is now in a flat-footed tie at 50% to 50%.
2. Nevada is next closest and it favors the Republican Joe Heck over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, vying for the seat being vacated by Harry Reid. This would be a gain for the GOP. The probabilities of victory in an election held today are 56% for Heck and 44% for Cortez Masto.
3. New Hampshire is the third closest and Kelly Ayotte is trailing her Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan. This would be a loss for the GOP. The odds here are 33% to 67%, respectively.
4. In Indiana, incumbent Todd Young leads trails challenger Evan Bayh. This would be a loss of a seat for the GOP. The current odds are 14% to 86%, respectively.
5. In North Carolina, incumbent Richard Burr leads challenger Deborah Ross. This would be a hold of a seat for the GOP, so no net gain. The current odds are 87% to 13%.
6. In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold is a solid favorite to beat Ron Johnson, but the current Confidence of Victory number is slightly under the arbitrary 90% mark at 89% to 11%. This would be a gain for the Democrats.

These six races would say the Republicans are most likely to lose three or maybe four seats, which would put them at either 51 or 50 seats, these are the two most likely results, as shown by the line graph above.

Back tomorrow with the numbers in the presidential race.

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