Clinton vs Trump. 6 November 2016, 2 days before the election

I usually wait on Sundays for the morning talk shows to be over, since it's common that at least one will roll out some new polls. I'm breaking with that rule today because my next update is the final post late Monday night. This is the dress rehearsal.

I could never have started this hobby without the Internet making it so easy to find polling data. I always wanted information I could rely on, especially because it's been a cliche for generations that there will be reports on the last weekend that state "the race is tightening", even in the big blowouts like Reagan-Mondale and Bush-Dukakis.

This weekend, it appears to be true. I'll save the in-depth stuff for Monday night and just give the snapshot info in this post.

Here is the list of states and districts, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.
 
Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): 
NE-3 WY OK NE-1 AL AR ID KY NE WV LA SD ND MT MS KS TN TX MO IN 
Total: 145

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): SC NE-2 AZ GA UT OH AK
Total: 64

Toss-up: NV IA
Total: 12
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): 
NH ME-2 FL NC PA MI CO NM
Total: 99

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): 
WI VA ME CT MN OR ME-1 NJ RI DE IL MD WA NY MA HI CA DC VT
Total: 215

The Current Count

CLINTON 314
TRUMP 209
TOSS-UP 12


The only red moves that really matter are Ohio back in the Trump column and Nevada and Iowa now rated toss-ups.



We are at a time in the contest when valuable information about early voting is available. My algorithm does not take it into account. The late polls say Nevada got closer and moved in Trump's favor. The lines for early voting in Nevada at a predominantly Hispanic polling place and the numbers from Clark County in general look to favor Clinton and the Democrats. This is interesting and useful data, but I don't factor it in. If the late polls today and tomorrow still rate Nevada and Iowa toss-ups, I will squeeze my algorithm a little harder.

Here are the odds my algorithm produces for victory for each candidate if the election were being held today. In a very real sense, it is being held today, given the number of states with early voting, available in all but ten states, and the increasing popularity of absentee ballots, available everywhere, though some states make people fill out a reason.

Trump's chances are no longer parts per million, but his paths to victory are extremely narrow and time is running out fast. If instead of using my algorithm I used my gut feeling about the states he should not lose and let my algorithm look at the states he needs to steal from Clinton, his odds climb up to about 4.0%.


Even giving Trump advantages I would deny to Clinton, it's not very close.


My last update will be Monday night after 9:00 pm Pacific time, which is midnight on the East Coast. At that time, I'll make my final predictions in the 34 Senate races, The 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska that make those states proportional.


Hold on. The end really is in sight.

Clinton vs Trump. 23 Oct. 2016, 16 days from the election

Here is the list of states and districts, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.
 
Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]):
ND NE-3 NE-1 WY WV NE LA AR AL OK ID TN MT KS NE-2 KY MS SD SC
Total: 96

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): IN MO TX AK GA
Total: 78

Toss-up: OH UT
Total: 24
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton):
IA ME-2 AZ NC NV FL PA
Total: 88

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): NM WI NH MN CO ME CT ME-1 WA NJ OR DE MI VA RI IL NY MD VT HI MA CA DC
Total: 252

The current count 

CLINTON 340
TRUMP 174
TOSS-UP 24

The best news this week gives to Trump is that deal is not sealed in Ohio.

The worst news for Trump is that the deal is also not sealed in Utah and the manner in which it is no longer clear makes the news even worse for the Republican nominee. 

There have been seven polls in the past two weeks in Utah that have checked the numbers for Evan McMullin, a last ditch candidate put up by the Never Trump people, a candidate without even a party affiliation. While McMullin gets less national press than Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, in Utah his poll numbers are rising quickly, the most recent poll from Emerson showing him in the lead. The Confidence of Victory method can deal with races with three or more fairly even competitors, and the current numbers give Trump a 47% chance to win, Clinton a 28% chance and McMullin at 25%. If any candidate gets over 50% in the three-way race, my system will give them the nod.

It's added a little spice to a contest that doesn't look like it has many surprises left.

And now the Probability of Victory numbers.

Trump's chances can still be read off in parts per million, specifically 590 ppm. Nate Silver's idea that he has a 13% chance this late in the game mystifies me. Right now, he has to keep every state where he has a lead - not very hard right now - and then take Utah, Ohio, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida and then one bonus state, like Pennsylvania, New Mexico or Wisconsin. There is no way in hell the odds in all his possible paths adds up to even 1%, let alone 13%.

Here are the 15 states considered this week's by the algorithm.

Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 128

The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. OH: 50%, 50%, 18
2. FL: 85%, 15%, 29
3. NC: 70%, 30%, 15
4. TX: 8%, 92%, 38
5. AZ: 60%, 40%, 11
6. GA: 19%, 81%, 16
7: UT: 53%, 47%, 6 (53% is Clinton + McMullin)
8: PA: 92%, 8%, 20
9. IA: 59%, 41%, 6
10. NV: 77%, 23%, 6
11. MO: 9%, 91%, 10 
12. IN: 6%, 94%, 11
13. AK: 9%, 91%, 3
14. WI: 97%, 3%, 10
15. ME-2: 59%, 41%, 1


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 99.94%
Trump    0.06%
 
 Just 16 days left until this mess is officially over. I have no idea how the House is going and as you can see from yesterday's post, there is still some drama in the Senate. But when it comes to the race that is taking up the vast majority of the discussion, the drama is nearly non-existent.

Clinton vs. Trump. 16 October 2016, 23 days from the election

Here is the list of states and districts, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.


Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]):ND NE-3 NE-1 WY ID WV NE OK AL MT AR TN LA KY TX NE-2 KS MS SD GA
Total: 141

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): AK MO UT IN SC
Total: 39

Toss-up: AZ
Total: 11
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): ME-2 IA OH NV NC FL NH MN NM CO
Total: 103

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton):PA WI NJ VA ME DE OR MI RI CT ME-1 NY IL MD VT HI MA CA DC
Total: 244

The current count 

CLINTON 347
TRUMP 180
TOSS-UP 11


Not much good news for Trump. Georgia is always hovering around the 95% mark and this week it went above that number. Minnesota looks a little closer this week, but it's still at a comfortable 92% chance to go Clinton.


Trump is about at his basement number now, except maybe in the very rarely polled 2nd District of Nebraska. As of this writing, none of the states he holds are battlegrounds, instead they are very solidly in his camp.


That's the nice way to say that if a state is a legitimate battleground, Clinton is leading, or in the case of Arizona, it currently looks even and Clinton is trending in the right direction. And now the Probability of Victory numbers.

Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 128

The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. FL: 80%, 20%, 29
2. OH: 70%, 30%, 18
3. NC: 73%, 27%, 15
4. AZ: 50%, 50%, 11
5. IA: 64%, 36%, 6
6. NV: 71%, 29%, 6
7. SC: 9%, 91%, 9
8. MN: 92%, 8%, 10

9. IN: 6%, 94%, 11
10. MO: 6%, 94%, 10 
11. CO: 95%, 5%, 9
12. GA: 3%, 97%, 16
13. PA: 98%, 2%, 20
14. NH: 89%, 11%, 4 
15: UT: 6%, 94%, 6



Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 99.93%
Trump    0.07%

Here's where I'm supposed to give the reminder that this is a snapshot and not a prediction.

It's mid-October. In a very real sense, the election is being held today. I have my absentee ballot, I've filled it in and I'm walking it over to the Registrar of Voters today. In a lot of places, people are filling in their ballots, either early voting or absentee. We still have three weeks and change before we know stuff for a fact, but the Trump Slump continues, putting his chances of winning down to 724 parts per million. Obama never had a lead like this over Romney, this looks more like Obama-McCain.

Simply put, it's a major ass-kicking and it's very late in the game. 

Back next week Saturday with the very competitive race for the Senate.

Clinton vs. Trump. 9 October 2016, 30 days from the election

Very good week for Clinton and all with polls taken before the audio tape emerged. Sam Wang at Princeton, who is much better known than I am and has a model very close to mine, thinks Republicans are abandoning Trump not because of the tape, but because they see his ship is sinking and the tape gives them an excuse. It will be interesting to see how the rescinded endorsements effect the Senate races.

Here is the list of states and district, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.


Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND NE-3 WY NE-1 ID WV AL NE AR OK MT MS KS KY UT SD LA TN SC MO TX NE-2 IN
Total: 161

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): GA AK IA AZ ME-2
Total: 37

Toss-up: NV
Total: 6
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): OH CO FL NC PA NM NH WI ME MI
Total: 128

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN VA DE CT NJ WA OR RI ME-1 MA IL NY VT HI MD CA DC
Total:206

 The current count 

CLINTON 334
TRUMP 198
TOSS-UP 6

All the movement from one category to another favored Clinton this week, the biggest move being Ohio switching sides. The best news for Trump is Nevada staying at 50%-50% and Florida and Colorado becoming more competitive for him, though still favoring Clinton.

By next week, the polls will reflect the Access Hollywood tape, the Republican defections and the results of the second debate. As I type this, the debate hasn't happened yet, but this is a Town Hall style format. The conventional wisdom is that going negative in a Town Hall is the quickest way to lose. Hillary doesn't have to get under his skin, she's already done that.

And for Clinton supporters, I now bring out the dessert.

 Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 153


The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. FL: 72%, 38%, 29
2. OH: 64%, 36%, 18
3. PA: 76%, 24%, 20
4. NC: 72%, 28%, 15
5. AZ: 31%, 69%, 11
6. CO: 67%, 33%, 9
7. NV: 50%, 50%, 6
8. WI: 89%, 11%, 10
9. MI: 94%, 6%, 16
10. GA: 5%, 95%, 16
11. IA: 13%, 87%, 6
12. NM: 88%, 12%, 4
13. IN: 4%, 96%, 11 
14. NH: 89%, 11%, 4
15. MN: 96%, 4%, 10


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 97.1%
Trump    2.9%

As I have stated many times, my system gives a snapshot of what would happen if the election were held today. While election day is now a month off, I would say Trump really has about two weeks to do something he has not done once this year. He needs to have an actual lead in states and districts that add up to 269 electoral votes. (My assumption is that if he can do that, the GOP will still hold the House and he would win the tie.) 

I do not claim to be psychic. I have no idea what news we will see in the weeks ahead. I have a hard time guessing what stories are going to gain traction. I would have assumed Trump CEO Steve Bannon being outed as an anti-Semitic wife beater was going to be a big deal and Trump's treatment of weight gaining beauty queen twenty years after the fact wouldn't even be important twelve hours later. 

For those of you keeping score at home, that's Reality 2, Hubbard 0.
 
But I will bring up my simile first written on May Day. This election will be like an anaconda swallowing a pig: long, slow, ugly and inevitable. It has been long, slow and ugly every damned day, but it wasn't completely inevitable for a few weeks in September.

September is over. I stand by the simile.

Back next Saturday to check out the Senate. Keep calm and make sure your friends are registered. 

Clinton vs Trump. 2 October 2016, 37 days from the election

In last week's post, things improved for Trump, though he was still behind. This week's polls have reversed the trend, giving Clinton her best news in over a month.

Here are the list of states and districts in five categories, listed from Solid Trump to Solid Clinton. As of this week, both Maine and Nebraska's separate districts are on the list.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.


Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND NE-3 WY NE-1 ID WV NE AR OK TN MT AL LA TX UT SC AK MO MS KY SD KS NE-2 ME-2 IN 
Total: 165

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): IA GA AZ OH
Total: 51

Toss-up: NV
Total: 6
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): NC PA CO FL WI ME NM NH MI RI OR
Total: 121

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN VA NJ CT WA DE IL MD ME-1 NY VT CA HI DC
Total:195

The current count 

CLINTON 316
TRUMP 216
TOSS-UP 6

This week's polling made big changes in several true battleground states, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida, and all those changes were in Clinton's favor. The changes that helped Trump were less vital, moving Nebraska from Leaning Trump to Solid Trump, New Mexico and Oregon from Solid Clinton to Leaning Clinton. This brings Clinton's lead in the electoral college to a nice round 100 electors ahead.

If Clinton supporters feel like taking a sigh of relief, I will not stop you. More good news is coming.

 Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 165

The battleground states ranked by pqn: 
(Clinton%, Trump%, electors)

1. FL: 78%, 22%, 29
2. PA: 68%, 32%, 20
3. NC: 59%, 41%, 15
4. OH: 28%, 72%, 18
5. AZ: 26%, 74%, 11
6. CO: 77%, 23%, 9
7. NV: 50%, 50%, 6
8. GA: 10%, 90%, 16
9. MI: 90%, 10%, 16
10. WI: 83%, 17%, 10
11. IA: 18%, 82%, 6
12. NM: 89%, 11%, 4
13. MN: 96%, 4%, 10
14. VA: 97%, 3%, 13
15. NH: 89%, 11%, 4


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 92.6%
Trump    7.4% 



I never loved that Texas was considered a battleground by my algorithm and because it's back in Trump's strong category, his baseline is at 165 electoral votes. That means he still has to capture 104 more, and that won't be easy. I have Clinton's chances at 92.6% to 7.4%. As I have said in the past, as a former gambler I hate to celebrate early, but it is nice to see a good week for Clinton with time slowly running out.


Many people ask me about Nate Silver. Let us start with what we have in common. We both think Hillary is in the lead and she had a very good week. Where we disagree is the how comfortable her lead is. Silver's polls only numbers are now at 66.8% to 33.2%.


People ask if I worry about how much Silver and I disagree. The answer is no. If I trusted his work, I wouldn't do this stuff week after week. He's well known but I think his product is weak. I'm an old school programmer from the 1980s. When I think of successful and not very good, I think of Microsoft.

Scratch that, I now think of Microsoft and Nate Silver.


If I have any concerns in this week's numbers, it's that Pennsylvania got closer. Right now, Trump's easiest paths to victory entail holding on to Ohio and winning Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Colorado and one other state of his choice. It these combinations of states to win that make his odds so long.


Of course, these are just the numbers, which are often not well reported. On the campaign trail, Trump is in a quagmire re-litigating the 1990s. From battles with beauty queens to bringing up Bill Clinton's infidelities to Trump's 1995 New Jersey tax return claiming a loss of $900 million, stuff from twenty years ago that should be ancient history politically is being kept daisy fresh and none of it to Trump's advantage.

I also want to apologize for all the negative things I said about the reporting in The New York Times this campaign. The tax stuff amounts to a nuclear sized bombshell. Susanne Craig, the woman at the Times who was sent these documents anonymously, has been asked if she has other stuff. Her answer was "no comment".


Yikes.


By next week, we should see the effect of the tax story on the polls and next Sunday, we get the second debate, a town hall style show.


I'll be back next Saturday with the latest numbers on the Senate.

Clinton vs Trump. 25 September 2016, 44 days from the election

Another good week for Trump, but important states are moving both towards his column and away from them. More on that after the numbers. RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY AL ID TN UT MT SD KY LA WV OK MS MO AK SC ME-2 KS AR IN TX  
Total: 160

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): IA NE GA OH NV AZ NC

Total: 77

Toss-up: FL
Total: 29
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): CO MI PA WI ME  RI NH NJ

Total: 79

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): VA WA MN DE NM OR IL ME-1 CT DC NY VT MA HI CA MD
Total:193

 The current count 

CLINTON 272
TRUMP 237
TOSS-UP 29

The big changes this week were Nevada and North Carolina moving into the Leaning Trump camp and Florida leaving the Trump total and going back to toss-up.  With Clinton at 272, she cannot afford to lose a single state that now supports her, a daunting proposition. My model is a snapshot and it gives Clinton much better odds than many others do, but right now these are very small slivers of hope. I will explain below why those slivers are a little larger than you might think.

Here are the odds of victory if the election was held today, using the 15 battleground states according to my algorithm.

Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 122

The battleground states ranked by pqn: 
(Clinton%, Trump%, electors)

1. FL: 50%, 50%, 29
2. NC: 45%, 55%, 15
3. PA: 82%, 18%, 20
4. OH: 18%, 82%, 18
5. MI: 79%, 21%, 16
6. AZ: 37%, 63%, 11
7. CO: 71%, 29%, 9
8. GA: 10%, 90%, 16
9. NV: 34%, 67%, 6
10. TX: 3%, 97%, 38 
11. WI: 87%, 13%, 10
12. NJ: 94%, 6%, 14
13. NE: 10%, 90%, 5
14. IA: 7%, 93%, 6
15. RI 91%, 9%, 4


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 84.8%
Trump 15.2% 

It should be expected that Clinton is still favored, but it might seem counter-intuitive that my model still has her as a solid favorite. It's all about playing defense. Yes, Trump only has to steal a state and has several to choose from. Colorado is easiest right now, but Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are in the realm of possibility. His odds are made longer because he also has to play defense, most especially in North Carolina and Florida, and to a lesser extent in Nevada. At the moment, Ohio doesn't look much like a battleground, Trump having the lead in eight of ten polls conducted in September. That said, Clinton has those kinds of advantages in the four states where she must play defense.

State: # of polls with Clinton leading in September of total # of September polls
CO: 6 of 8
MI: 5 of 5
PA: 6 of 7
WI: 5 of 5

There are two analogies I can point to right now, and they do not point in the same direction. Obama in 2012 had a bad first debate and his numbers fell for awhile, but after about a week and a half the numbers climbed back to their previous levels. The other is 2004, where it really came down to Ohio and Florida, and Bush only won re-election because he swept them. 2012 is an analogy in Clinton's favor if her numbers bounce back and it should be noted Obama's worst day had him still winning 278 to 260, then slowly climbed back over 300 electoral votes. The 2004 analogy should favor Trump, but Ohio and Florida in 2004 were both closely contested while none of the states he needs to steal currently are close.

Though my numbers are more confident than Nate Silver's, I'm still anxious seeing how close the Electoral College numbers are right now.  I'll be back next week after the first debate, which has every chance to be the strangest presidential debate in living memory.

It will also be October when next I write. There were times this year I thought it would never come.
  
  

Clinton vs. Trump. 4 September 2016, 65 days from the election

A lot of polls this week, some favoring Trump and some favoring Clinton. The one big switch from last week is Iowa moving from Leaning Clinton to Leaning Trump. Several states that became Leaning Trump with the first flood of polls from Ipsos have moved back to where they belong in the Solid Trump camp, but some others move form Solid Trump to Leaning Trump, and there's a good chance that's where they belong. The states that I think are currently misplaced are Kentucky and Montana, that are only in the Leaning Camp because of single polls with small sample sizes. On the Clinton side of the ledger, Oregon, Michigan and Connecticut move to under 95% Confidence of Victory, but all of them could easily move back up over that threshold in the next few weeks.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY MS TN SD ID LA AL AK KS IN WV TX MO OK 
Total: 127

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): GA AR AZ NE KY UT MT SC IA   
Total: 70

Toss-up: None
Total: 0
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): NC ME NV OH NM WI FL OR MI CT
Total: 117

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): PA CO NH MN WA IL DE NJ MA VA MD NY RI VT DC CA HI
Total: 224

The current count 

CLINTON 341
TRUMP 197

My system has very specific rules for toss-ups and those rules make them rare. During the week Iowa went from Leaning Clinton to Toss-up to Leaning Trump. I have no idea who will be favored to win that state two months from now, but if I was forced to put up a wager, I'd put a small amount on Clinton.


And now we get to the odds of winning. My system takes the current numbers and chooses the 15 states most likely to sway the outcome, so the list changes from week to week.

The fifteen states that have the most sway:

NC FL OH SC IA AZ WI KY GA UT NV ME MI NE OR
 
Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 99.95%
Trump 0.05%   

I am rounding the probabilities to the nearest hundredth of a percent because if I rounded to the nearest tenth, Trump's chances would have rounded to zero three times in the past five weeks, including today, when he barely rounded up to 0.05%.

How can Trump gain a state and get much worse odds than last week? In the words of The Mighty Monarch "Let him take all the pawns he needs!" Right now, the straightest path for Trump to victory would be to hold on to every state where he has a current lead - which is not a sure thing - and then to win North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and one of three smaller states, either Maine, Nevada or New Mexico. Iowa has six electoral votes, so as the race stands right now, it's not a vital component. If Wisconsin changes and becomes more difficult to win than Florida is, even the pawns will be important, but that is not the case right now.

Short rant: Nate Silver's website is making this race seem much closer than it is and it seriously pisses me off. The Senate is close, Clinton-Trump isn't. I understand the need for clicks, but I'd rather the political journalists spent more time explaining how vital the Senate is to both parties and focusing on those contests, because that really is an exciting horse race that could go either way two months from now.

Clinton-Trump is exactly what it looks like. A professionally run campaign against a gang of corrupt goofballs who have no idea how to expand their voting pool. In other words, a major ass-kicking. Maybe something will change in the next two months, but it is extremely unlikely to change because Trump becomes a better campaigner. He loves ranting in front of adoring crowds, with not even the slightest clue he's not helping his cause. Sanders loved the crowds as well and he had actual professionals working for him. He didn't beat Clinton and Trump doesn't look likely to beat her, either.

Back next Saturday with another look at the very tight race for control of the Senate.
 
 
 

Clinton vs Trump. 28 August 2016, 72 days from the election

The big news in polling this week was from Ipsos. The company released two huge flurries of polls, 43 on Wednesday night and 40 on Friday. Some of those polls disagree with the conventional wisdom and some in the first batch disagree with some in the second batch. Most of the movement of states from one category to another is because of these polls being included. The general trend is in Trump's favor, but not massively so.

Any state that is underlined and italicized has moved from one category to another. If it is red, the change is in Trump's favor and if it is blue, the change is in Clinton's favor.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY UT SD TX TN AK ID IN MS LA OK 
Total: 103

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): AL KS AR WV MO MT AZ SC NE KY GA  
Total: 88

Toss-up: None
Total: 0
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): WI NC NV IA ME OH NM FL
Total: 93

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): OR MI MN PA CT CO MA DE NH WA VA NJ MD IL RI NY VT CA HI DC
Total: 254

The current count 

CLINTON 347
TRUMP 191


Ten of the twelve moves this week were from Solid to Leaning, both in the states favoring Trump and the states favoring Clinton. This is The Ipsos Effect, brought on by small samples sizes Ipsos uses in low population states. In the Confidence of Victory system, small sample sizes tend to move the Confidence of Victory numbers closer to 50%. The two moves that are not related to The Ipsos Effect  are Georgia flipping from Toss-up to Leaning Trump and Oregon moving from Leaning Clinton to Solid Clinton. Because Georgia has 16 electoral votes and Oregon only 7, these changes improved Trump's overall Probability of Victory number, though it is still less than 1%, making it four weeks in a row Trump's chances have not climbed above that ignominious threshold.

The fifteen states that have the most sway:

GA NC WI OH FL KY AZ SC NV MO IA NE ME NH WV
 
Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 99.80%
Trump 0.20%  

The Ipsos Effect has put some states in the top fifteen battleground positions that really aren't battlegrounds at all. This is a problem caused by an influx that will be solved by an influx of data, sort of a "lime in the coconut" situation. It changes the numbers in small ways but in no way changes the narrative. Trump is getting badly beaten. It is also true because I decided to use an algorithm that allowed fifteen entries and I'm always using all fifteen slots in my calculations. My best guess right now is the real battlegrounds are Georgia, Arizona and South Carolina, states where Trump now holds a lead, and on the Democratic side North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Iowa. The big problem Trump faces is that if that is correct and he runs the table with those listed stated, he still loses the presidency with just 265 electoral votes. If I'm right about this list and the noise is removed from the signal over the next few weeks, his chances will once again be best measured in parts per million.

Some Democrats worry about complacency in the voters, but I think the more likely problem is the Republican base falling into despair. Let me repeat my message from yesterday. If you are interested in donating money on the national level, it is currently a better investment to put your donations into the Senate races, and that is true for Democrats and Republicans alike. The numbers say what they have said for six weeks now. Clinton is delivering a major ass-kicking to Trump and even the media who dearly want a close contest are coming around to understanding this.

Back next Saturday with more numbers on the Senate.

Clinton vs. Trump21 August 201679 days from the election

Numbers first, me yapping about the numbers second. A state that has moved from one category to another will be underlined, italicized and written in blue if the change was towards Clinton and in Red if the move favored Trump.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY ID WV OK KY AL NE MS KS UT LA TN SD AR AK MT IN TX
Total: 145

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): MO SC AZ  
Total: 30

Toss-up: GA
Total: 16
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): NV NC IA OH OR FL
Total: 81

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN ME CT NM PA MI CO DE NH NJ VA WI WA MD CA IL RI NY VT HI DC MA
Total: 266

The current count 

CLINTON 347
TRUMP 175
TOSS-UP 16

The big change from last week was a poll that moved Georgia from Leaning Trump to Toss-up. In this election, Georgia is actually a battleground state and Pennsylvania is not.

Let that sink in for a bit.



And then we have the 15 states this week that have the most influence on the race, which is calculated by the number of electoral votes times the chance of victory for the underdog. They are listed in order from most vital to least.

The fifteen states that have the most sway:


GA NC OH FL AZ IA SC NV MO OR TX MN CT PA ME
 
Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 99.99%
Trump 0.01%  

Yes, that's right, Donald Trump's chances of victory in an election held today are 1 in 10,000. They are so low, I will start measuring his chances in parts per million. Currently, he's at 108.5 parts per million away from being a 100% pure loser. 

I just wrote that Pennsylvania is not a battleground state, but it's on the list of states used in the calculation. Notice that Texas is on the list now, too. I don't think either of those states are really in doubt, but further evidence could change my mind. I also have a hard time believing just yet that Missouri and South Carolina are in play, but Trump really is that bad a candidate.

More than that, there are two states I expect to move when more polling comes in. Oregon is in the battleground group because of a single poll produced by a Republican pollster. Utah is in the Solid Trump camp because of a similar polling anomaly. My assumption is that by this time next month, Utah will be a battleground and Oregon will be Solid Clinton.

And now instead of yapping about numbers, let me finish by yapping about other people yapping.

People want to compare this election to others in the past, but no major party have ever had a presidential campaign run by talentless amateurs before. Trump is already talking about rigged polls, which is a great way to make your base feel hopeless and decrease voter turnout among your supporters. 

People in the pundit class on the right are expecting to lose in a landslide and aren't holding their tongues. Dana Perino, who worked as a spokesperson for G.W. Bush, just wrote an article telling conservatives that the polls are very likely correct. She believed the hype in 2012 that Romney would win. Bob Beckel, one of Fox News' lapdog liberals, convinced her that the unskewing of polls was a lie and of course, he was right. She learned a lesson, we will see how many follow her.

I didn't do the Senate numbers today, waiting for next Saturday to make that a weekly event. Right now, it looks like the GOP could keep 50 senators, which will make progress very difficult. This assumes Trump can keep on course to lose by about 200 electoral votes. The thing is, he's a bad spot and has ways it could get worse.

A report on the Senate next Saturday.

Clinton vs. Trump. 14 August 2016, 86 days from the election

I will leave my commentary for the explanations of the numbers this week. Let's jump straight to the digits. States that have changed position are in italics and underlined. If they are red, they moved towards Trump and if blue, they moved towards Clinton.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY ID WV OK AL NE KY KS UT LA TN SD AR TX AK MT MS IN 
Total: 145
Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): SC MO GA AZ  
Total:46
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): IA NV NC OH OR FL 
Total: 85
Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN ME CT NM PA MI VA DE WA NH NJ WI CO NY MD CA IL RI VT HI DC MA
Total: 262

The current count: 
Clinton 347 
Trump 191
 

The changes that look temporary: Utah went to solid Trump on the strength of a single poll from the only company putting Trump in the lead. Even Trump on the stump knows Utah is going to be tough. Trump is the stereotype of what Mormons think non-Mormons are like.

Missouri had a couple polls with Trump up by 10 in July, now his lead is 1 or 2. South Carolina is polled for the first time and Trump is up by 2. Prior history says these are comfortable wins for the Republicans. If Trump is truly struggling in those states, Clinton's electoral count could climb past 400, a number I still consider beyond reasonable expectations until serious evidence proves otherwise.

Iowa and Ohio are battleground states that made moves towards Clinton. North Carolina went from solid Clinton to leaning Clinton. They all deserve to be battleground right now. Again, evidence might prove otherwise over time. It should be noted that right now, Pennsylvania is NOT a battleground, but instead a regularly polled state where Hillary Clinton has had a comfortable lead for about a month.

The changes that looks permanent: Wisconsin is solid Clinton now and it will likely stay there. I know I have at least one reader who will be happy about this. New Hampshire is now solidly Clinton based on all the three polls taken in August. I'm starting to believe it's really in the Clinton camp, which is a little odd. Vermont and Hew Hampshire are neighbors and are usually worlds apart. Vermont is the hippie state, while New Hampshire is the "Get off my lawn!" state.

And now the odds if the election were held today, based on 32,768 possible outcomes in the fifteen closest states in terms of expected value. (Note: a lot of these fifteen states are not truly battleground, they are just the closest to being competitive.)

The fifteen states that have the most sway:

GA NC OH FL AZ IA NV MO SC OR MN IN CT PA ME

Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 99.97%
Trump 0.03%


In the words of the comic books, this is not a hoax, this is not an imaginary story. Trump's odds in an election held today are 3 chances in 10,000 or 3,332 to 1. I knew that moving Wisconsin out of the leaning Clinton column could make a difference and sure enough, it did. My best guess is that Oregon belongs in the Solid Clinton column as well.

In closing, don't let anyone tell you this is close, even if his name is Nate Silver. Right now, this is an ass-kicking and Hillary Clinton has room to improve.

Another report next Sunday.

Clinton vs Trump. 7 August 2016, 93 days from the election

It was a bad week for Donald Trump. I fully expect that to be the lede on this blog many times between now and November. The numbers, nuts and bolts are at the end of the post, so if that's all you want, feel free to skip ahead. The beginning of this post is me playing Q&A with myself.

What were the big changes this week? The states that moved from one category to another are New Hampshire (Solid Trump to Leaning Clinton) and Nevada (Leaning Trump to Leaning Clinton).

How was New Hampshire in Solid Trump? A Republican polling company called Inside Sources has Trump winning big. I had never heard of them before, but that's because they re-branded after a disastrous 2012. There were only two polls in July, so they counted as half the median computation and swamped the other poll. A new poll made three polls and the Inside Sources numbers became just a poll to the right of the median. This is the way big swings happen in the median. It gets rarer as more polls get taken every week.

Is there any information that you need to make a better snapshot? The most glaring is the two week hiatus polling companies have taken in Ohio. There is no question that it is still a battleground state until evidence says it isn't, one way or another. 

You said you expect more bad weeks for Trump. Why? Bad things happen when he talks, and he's always talking.

I will admit I am obsessed with the election. I wish I wasn't, because it is not great for my mental health or blood pressure. I report the data I have accurately. A good week for Trump is going to mess me up if it is a major shift, but I don't know if that will happen and I'll be surprised if it is enough to swing the tide now.

Why are you skeptical he can swing the election his direction? Good question, multiple part answer.

1. His personality. Much like with Goldwater, people are pestering psychologists and psychiatrists for diagnoses. It's not that fancy. He's dishonest because lying and scamming have worked for him in the past. He is an egomaniac because he is the CEO of a company with no strong board of directors to reign him in and it is his nature.

I am more of a mathematician than a historian, but I can keep a lot of information in my brain. CEOs without restraining Boards of Directors are like absolute monarchs. Some were timid, some thoughtful, some egomaniacs and assholes. Trump is in the last category. Others of his ilk are Henry VIII, George III, Kaiser Bill and several of the Roman emperors. Trump is orders of magnitude more ignorant than the other people on this list.

2. His opponents understand his weaknesses very well and good information is spreading. He loves to talk in front of big crowds, but he must answer any slight that gets under his skin, which is nearly everything. The Clinton campaign and the media looking into his past are finding stuff that he has to respond to. Some might compare him to Pavlov's dog; I think he's more like a single celled organism.

And then there are the more clever insights. Of everything I have read this week, I give highest grades to Wil Wheaton, whose 21st Century claims to fame are equally as an actor and a board game enthusiast. He is the first person I read who came to the conclusion that Trump's constant plead "Believe me!" is actually a tell, a nervous tic that gives away information. He says it when he's lying. I give Wheaton full marks here because I hadn't seen anyone else say it before, and I'm fuming a little that I didn't see it myself. My sad excuse is that it's been so long since I played poker, my reading skills have gone to crap.

Let me repeat. My excuse is sad.

3. Trump is not running a campaign. It was obvious very early on that Ben Carson was really on a book tour and not a campaign to be President of the United States. Trump is also running a scam, but not a book tour scam.  This week, we found out clear recurring donations to his campaign were nearly impossible to turn off. (As a note of full disclosure, some left wing causes have the same bug/feature in their design, including Equality California, who wouldn't let me out of a monthly payment until the card was discarded for other reasons.) More than money, talking in front of big cheering crowds is a massive turn-on for him. He is making no effort to build his base; he doesn't want votes, he wants strokes, and cheering crowds give him big league strokes. (Aside: some people think he used the non-existent word "bigly" once. I am sure he said "big league". Let's not lie about him, the truth is bad enough.) 

4. Clinton can stumble, but to steal the spotlight from Trump's mouth, she has to fall off the side of a mountain. Bad things can still happen to Hillary's campaign, but to get the spotlight off the egomaniac Trump, it has to be a stumble that is a multiple week story with lasting consequences, somewhere along the lines of Romney's 47% comments, and even that may not be enough to turn the tide.

Enough yammering, now the numbers.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY ID WV OK AL NE KY KS LA TN SD MO AR TX AK MT MS SC IN 
Total: 158
Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): AZ IA GA UT
Total: 39
Toss-up (exactly 50% CoV): OH 
Total: 18
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): NH NV OR FL WI
Total: 56
Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): NC VA ME CT PA NM MI CO DE WA NJ NY MD CA RI IL VT HI DC MA
Total: 267

The current count: 
Clinton 323  
Trump 197
Toss-up 18 

The change from last week is that one Solid Trump and one Leaning Trump moved to Leaning Clinton. That is the direction the wind is currently blowing. More than that, if prior data, both in terms of previous years and the change from July to August can be trusted, Ohio will likely move to leaning Clinton and Oregon and Wisconsin will both move to Solid Clinton. While Ohio would be nice to know, if Oregon or Wisconsin makes the move and everything else remains static, Clinton has enough electoral votes in the Solid range to win.

To repeat: If Oregon or Wisconsin polling looks better for Clinton in the next few weeks, Solid Clinton makes her president, as in "Game over, man!" Trump's odds will shrink to less than a tenth of a percent.

And now the odds of victory. Here are the 15 states with the highest expected value, which makes them most likely to sway the tide. Of those 15, the 11 that really can be seen as battleground currently are written in order of most likely Trump first to most likely Clinton last. Ohio is a toss-up right now, so you can see the cut-off point.

AZ IA GA UT OH NH NV OR FL WI NC

Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 99.6%
Trump 0.4%
 
Yes, that's right. Trump was at 1.1% in last week's snapshot and things got worse. Looking back at my data, Romney was as 0.4% when his worst gaffe completely sunk in, but he got something like a second wind after Obama had a bad performance in the first debate. The way things are going, I'm not sure there are going to be any debates.

I'll be back next weekend, both Saturday and Sunday. The Saturday posts will be about the Senate races.

Clinton vs. Trump. 31 July 2016, 100 days from the election

Hello, friends, family and strangers. Welcome to the first of the weekly reports on the 2016 presidential electoral college race between Hillary R. Clinton and Donald J. Trump. I include strangers because I am making an effort on social media - notably Twitter and Facebook - to get this blog out to as many people as possible because the most respected name in poll aggregation, Nate Silver, is producing something called a "now-cast" that says the race for the presidency is close.

My numbers say it isn't. My numbers do not claim to be predictor of the election, only a snapshot of what the polls say today. Even so, what is being reported by Nate Silver amounts to mathematical malpractice and people need to know not all aggregators agree with him.

If you are a stranger, your first question should be: Who the hell is this guy?

I'm the guy who beat Nate Silver in 2008 and beat him again in 2012. 

If I had some small disagreement with Silver's numbers, I might send him snide messages on Twitter, which he would likely ignore. The thing is, my numbers don't say a small difference. He said Trump was leading early this week and after the convention he now says it's 51%-49% for Clinton.

To repeat, I don't call my numbers a prediction, just a snapshot of what polls say now.

The snapshot says 99% to 1% for Clinton.

Let me quote Glengarry Glen Ross.

"You think I am fucking with you? I am not fucking with you."

We are 100 days away from the election and it feels like 100 years in purgatory. Having someone you trust telling you to worry makes it worse.

I'm here to say I'm as good as Nate Silver is (okay, just a little better) and right now he is peddling crap just as stinky as Ron Fournier, Howard Kurtz or Mark Halperin.

Let's go to the numbers, shall we?

The current count: 
Clinton 313
Trump 207
Toss-up 18 

In my system, only 50%-50% counts as a toss-up.

You might notice that Trump's red line is trending upward and Clinton's blue line is trending downward.

It is worrying, but not distressing.

Here is how we get to this state of affairs. These numbers will explain my lack of distress.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY OK ID WV KY AL NE KS TN LA SD MO AR NH TX AK MT MS SC IN 
Total: 162
Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): AZ GA IA NV UT
Total: 45
Toss-up (exactly 50% CoV): OH 
Total: 18
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): FL OR WI
Total: 46
Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MA DC HI CA VT IL RI MD NY NJ WA DE CO NM PA CT VA NC MN ME MI
Total: 267

The number that explains my current relative lack of distress: 267 Solid Clinton electoral votes. Yes, that's 267 out of a necessary 270. If she holds onto the stuff where she looks very good right now and wins Oregon or Wisconsin, she's the next president. Obama won both those states comfortably, and there are many other possible paths with nice noticeable odds, paths with over a 1% chance of happening. Trump's best single path to victory is currently at 0.05%.

For people who like to gamble, that path is now at 1 chance in 2,000.


The numbers that still give me distress: I wish this was a blow-out that would repudiate Trumpism for several elections to come. I don't think Clinton can get to 400 electoral votes, but over 350 is in the realm of possibility and that would be good. Under 300 would be a bad thing.

A blowout may not be needed to show all the cracks in the GOP coalition. We could see some very messed up stuff for them even before November.

 

And now the numbers that might make anyone to the left of Mitch McConnell sleep better this week.

Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 98.9%
Trump 1.1%

Feel any better, my left leaning friends? If so I'm glad. I live to serve.

To get an idea historically, Trump is in much worse shape right now than McCain or Romney were after the conventions were over. One advantage both the last two Republican nominees had was when it came to battleground states, they weren't playing defense. States didn't lean Republican, they were almost all Solid Republican, even the most contentious having a 95% Confidence of Victory for the GOP or better, most well over 99% CoV. They just had to steal several states from Obama, much easier said than done. Trump not only has to steal, he has to worry about states that were solidly Republican in the last few electoral contests. Playing defense in Utah and Georgia really surprises me, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go back to Solidly Trump, but right now the deal has not been closed. 

Once again, this is a snapshot and not a prediction. If you look around and think Trump is running a fucked-up campaign, here's some confirmation. The polls are saying most Americans agree with you.

To reiterate, if I pretty much agreed with Nate Silver's numbers, I wouldn't be trying to get this out to a larger audience. But we don't agree and I'm better than he is, based on the evidence from 2008 and 2012.

I'm a nerd and I'm a geezer, so let me quote The Guns of Will Sonnett.

"No brag, just fact."

     
(Note: Thanks to Ellis Weiner for his unpaid copy editing.)