Clinton vs Trump. 23 Oct. 2016, 16 days from the election

Here is the list of states and districts, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.
 
Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]):
ND NE-3 NE-1 WY WV NE LA AR AL OK ID TN MT KS NE-2 KY MS SD SC
Total: 96

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): IN MO TX AK GA
Total: 78

Toss-up: OH UT
Total: 24
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton):
IA ME-2 AZ NC NV FL PA
Total: 88

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): NM WI NH MN CO ME CT ME-1 WA NJ OR DE MI VA RI IL NY MD VT HI MA CA DC
Total: 252

The current count 

CLINTON 340
TRUMP 174
TOSS-UP 24

The best news this week gives to Trump is that deal is not sealed in Ohio.

The worst news for Trump is that the deal is also not sealed in Utah and the manner in which it is no longer clear makes the news even worse for the Republican nominee. 

There have been seven polls in the past two weeks in Utah that have checked the numbers for Evan McMullin, a last ditch candidate put up by the Never Trump people, a candidate without even a party affiliation. While McMullin gets less national press than Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, in Utah his poll numbers are rising quickly, the most recent poll from Emerson showing him in the lead. The Confidence of Victory method can deal with races with three or more fairly even competitors, and the current numbers give Trump a 47% chance to win, Clinton a 28% chance and McMullin at 25%. If any candidate gets over 50% in the three-way race, my system will give them the nod.

It's added a little spice to a contest that doesn't look like it has many surprises left.

And now the Probability of Victory numbers.

Trump's chances can still be read off in parts per million, specifically 590 ppm. Nate Silver's idea that he has a 13% chance this late in the game mystifies me. Right now, he has to keep every state where he has a lead - not very hard right now - and then take Utah, Ohio, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida and then one bonus state, like Pennsylvania, New Mexico or Wisconsin. There is no way in hell the odds in all his possible paths adds up to even 1%, let alone 13%.

Here are the 15 states considered this week's by the algorithm.

Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 128

The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. OH: 50%, 50%, 18
2. FL: 85%, 15%, 29
3. NC: 70%, 30%, 15
4. TX: 8%, 92%, 38
5. AZ: 60%, 40%, 11
6. GA: 19%, 81%, 16
7: UT: 53%, 47%, 6 (53% is Clinton + McMullin)
8: PA: 92%, 8%, 20
9. IA: 59%, 41%, 6
10. NV: 77%, 23%, 6
11. MO: 9%, 91%, 10 
12. IN: 6%, 94%, 11
13. AK: 9%, 91%, 3
14. WI: 97%, 3%, 10
15. ME-2: 59%, 41%, 1


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 99.94%
Trump    0.06%
 
 Just 16 days left until this mess is officially over. I have no idea how the House is going and as you can see from yesterday's post, there is still some drama in the Senate. But when it comes to the race that is taking up the vast majority of the discussion, the drama is nearly non-existent.

Clinton vs. Trump. 16 October 2016, 23 days from the election

Here is the list of states and districts, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.


Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]):ND NE-3 NE-1 WY ID WV NE OK AL MT AR TN LA KY TX NE-2 KS MS SD GA
Total: 141

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): AK MO UT IN SC
Total: 39

Toss-up: AZ
Total: 11
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): ME-2 IA OH NV NC FL NH MN NM CO
Total: 103

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton):PA WI NJ VA ME DE OR MI RI CT ME-1 NY IL MD VT HI MA CA DC
Total: 244

The current count 

CLINTON 347
TRUMP 180
TOSS-UP 11


Not much good news for Trump. Georgia is always hovering around the 95% mark and this week it went above that number. Minnesota looks a little closer this week, but it's still at a comfortable 92% chance to go Clinton.


Trump is about at his basement number now, except maybe in the very rarely polled 2nd District of Nebraska. As of this writing, none of the states he holds are battlegrounds, instead they are very solidly in his camp.


That's the nice way to say that if a state is a legitimate battleground, Clinton is leading, or in the case of Arizona, it currently looks even and Clinton is trending in the right direction. And now the Probability of Victory numbers.

Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 128

The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. FL: 80%, 20%, 29
2. OH: 70%, 30%, 18
3. NC: 73%, 27%, 15
4. AZ: 50%, 50%, 11
5. IA: 64%, 36%, 6
6. NV: 71%, 29%, 6
7. SC: 9%, 91%, 9
8. MN: 92%, 8%, 10

9. IN: 6%, 94%, 11
10. MO: 6%, 94%, 10 
11. CO: 95%, 5%, 9
12. GA: 3%, 97%, 16
13. PA: 98%, 2%, 20
14. NH: 89%, 11%, 4 
15: UT: 6%, 94%, 6



Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 99.93%
Trump    0.07%

Here's where I'm supposed to give the reminder that this is a snapshot and not a prediction.

It's mid-October. In a very real sense, the election is being held today. I have my absentee ballot, I've filled it in and I'm walking it over to the Registrar of Voters today. In a lot of places, people are filling in their ballots, either early voting or absentee. We still have three weeks and change before we know stuff for a fact, but the Trump Slump continues, putting his chances of winning down to 724 parts per million. Obama never had a lead like this over Romney, this looks more like Obama-McCain.

Simply put, it's a major ass-kicking and it's very late in the game. 

Back next week Saturday with the very competitive race for the Senate.

Clinton vs. Trump21 August 201679 days from the election

Numbers first, me yapping about the numbers second. A state that has moved from one category to another will be underlined, italicized and written in blue if the change was towards Clinton and in Red if the move favored Trump.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY ID WV OK KY AL NE MS KS UT LA TN SD AR AK MT IN TX
Total: 145

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): MO SC AZ  
Total: 30

Toss-up: GA
Total: 16
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): NV NC IA OH OR FL
Total: 81

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN ME CT NM PA MI CO DE NH NJ VA WI WA MD CA IL RI NY VT HI DC MA
Total: 266

The current count 

CLINTON 347
TRUMP 175
TOSS-UP 16

The big change from last week was a poll that moved Georgia from Leaning Trump to Toss-up. In this election, Georgia is actually a battleground state and Pennsylvania is not.

Let that sink in for a bit.



And then we have the 15 states this week that have the most influence on the race, which is calculated by the number of electoral votes times the chance of victory for the underdog. They are listed in order from most vital to least.

The fifteen states that have the most sway:


GA NC OH FL AZ IA SC NV MO OR TX MN CT PA ME
 
Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 99.99%
Trump 0.01%  

Yes, that's right, Donald Trump's chances of victory in an election held today are 1 in 10,000. They are so low, I will start measuring his chances in parts per million. Currently, he's at 108.5 parts per million away from being a 100% pure loser. 

I just wrote that Pennsylvania is not a battleground state, but it's on the list of states used in the calculation. Notice that Texas is on the list now, too. I don't think either of those states are really in doubt, but further evidence could change my mind. I also have a hard time believing just yet that Missouri and South Carolina are in play, but Trump really is that bad a candidate.

More than that, there are two states I expect to move when more polling comes in. Oregon is in the battleground group because of a single poll produced by a Republican pollster. Utah is in the Solid Trump camp because of a similar polling anomaly. My assumption is that by this time next month, Utah will be a battleground and Oregon will be Solid Clinton.

And now instead of yapping about numbers, let me finish by yapping about other people yapping.

People want to compare this election to others in the past, but no major party have ever had a presidential campaign run by talentless amateurs before. Trump is already talking about rigged polls, which is a great way to make your base feel hopeless and decrease voter turnout among your supporters. 

People in the pundit class on the right are expecting to lose in a landslide and aren't holding their tongues. Dana Perino, who worked as a spokesperson for G.W. Bush, just wrote an article telling conservatives that the polls are very likely correct. She believed the hype in 2012 that Romney would win. Bob Beckel, one of Fox News' lapdog liberals, convinced her that the unskewing of polls was a lie and of course, he was right. She learned a lesson, we will see how many follow her.

I didn't do the Senate numbers today, waiting for next Saturday to make that a weekly event. Right now, it looks like the GOP could keep 50 senators, which will make progress very difficult. This assumes Trump can keep on course to lose by about 200 electoral votes. The thing is, he's a bad spot and has ways it could get worse.

A report on the Senate next Saturday.