Thoughts on March 15

I call my system Confidence of Victory. I say the Pollster website from Huffington Post use Confidence of Lead, and I wish I had thought of that first. The thing is I am not at all confident of predictions made off of polls in primaries, so I can't attach numbers to anything tomorrow, but I get still give a basic sketch of each situation, starting with the big winner-take-all contest on the GOP side.

Florida: If the polls can be trusted, and it would take a Michigan level upset for them to be wrong, Trump has smacked down Rubio just as hard as he smacked down Jeb:( earlier this year. Nearly all the polls say Trump will get over 40% of the votes while Rubio will end up with less than 30%. If you have seen Rubio on the stump this last week, it looks like he talked to his numbers guys and he believed them.

Rubio the Savior is going down in the books with Lieberman's Joe-mentum, a truly sad showing.

Ohio: The polls say Kasich is a much better favorite son than Rubio, and the race for first in Ohio could go either way, Kasich or Trump. Sam Wang, the poll aggregator I trust most, says losing Ohio helps Trump because it could keep Kasich in the game longer, diluting the anti-Trump vote. if Kasich wins then drops out immediately, then Trump's path to the first ballot gets much murkier.

Illinois: The polling is very spotty, but Trump appears to have an advantage over Cruz. What the reaction from Trump voters to all the craziness there this month is anybody's guess, but I agree with the folks that say all publicity is good publicity for Trump, at least in the primaries.


The Democrats:  No winner take all contests tomorrow on the Democratic side, so wins and losses will not be as dramatic. I would not be surprised by a Sanders victory in either Illinois or Missouri. Florida looks like a lock for Clinton and if Sanders wins Ohio, that would be considered an upset.

Back on Wednesday with post mortem.

Early March: The national polls

I took a week off after Super Tuesday, mainly because I scheduled four midterms for a single week. I also got the feeling there wasn't much left to either race, but Sanders' win in Michigan and the escalating violence at Trump rallies makes me think I wrote off the nominations too soon.

The GOP: Where did Carson's support go? Right now, it looks like it went to Cruz and maybe Kasich, who finally polls above the None of the Above nationally.  As we will see tomorrow, the polls say he is in contention to win the all or nothing primary in Ohio.

As for Rubio, the national polls make him look stronger than he actually is. While Kasich could be a favorite son in Ohio, all the polls show Trump lapping the field in winner take all Florida.

I'm pretty sure we will have no more than three candidates before the next time I report, possibly only two. I really can't say who will be favored when it gets down to Trump vs. Cruz, even though now the ratio of support for Trump is an impressive 3:2. That would mean he would lead 60% to 40% if all the folks who supported other candidates split evenly, but I don't think that's the situation. For political junkies like me, we've already made up our minds, but a lot of the general public know how they feel about Trump and maybe Clinton, but the rest of the candidates are a blur. I will now go on the record saying Trump's support is not going to get to 50% in the average of national polls on the GOP side. He might lead Cruz, but I don't think he will lead Cruz + None of the Above combined.
  

The Dems: And then there is the Democratic race. A lot of smart people said Sanders' early victories were not big enough to move forward to actually passing Clinton, but then Michigan happened. No smart person said Sanders could win Michigan or even make it close, because smart people rely on data they can trust, and no data said it was close.

Let me be clear. The complete systemic failure of all polling in Michigan does not mean all polls are complete crap. Primary contests can be very changeable, unlike the general election, where the bombardment of data for months tend to ossify people's positions. But right now, I'm not assuming much when polls put Clinton in the lead, especially if the lead is less than 5 points.

Tomorrow, the reports on the biggest races in both parties on Tuesday, especially the winner take all races in Ohio, Florida and Missouri.

Polls for today's contests: The Republicans in South Carolina, The Democrats in Nevada

The GOP: Polling companies have been working hard getting numbers for today's primary in South Carolina, the first big test after New Hampshire for the Republicans. There have been eighteen polls in the past ten days and while there have definitely been outliers, the general trend agrees on this rough picture.

1. Trump should win. If anyone gets within ten percentage points, it should be counted as a moral victory.

2. Rubio and Cruz are in a tough battle for second. The only way this race can be considered an upset is if one of them is ten percentage points higher than the other.

3. Kasich and Jeb:( are in the hunt for the fourth and fifth spots.

4. The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson should be a non-factor in sixth.

Here are the numbers Nate Silver tweeted last night.

Trump 31
Rubio 20
Cruz 20
Jeb:( 11
Kasich 9
Carson 8

Here's my best guess.

Trump 36
Rubio 19
Cruz 19
Jeb:( 10
Kasich 10
Carson 7

 Basically, I'm bullish on Trump in comparison to Silver's numbers and ever so slightly bearish on everybody else. If I have a slight advantage here, my numbers add up to 100 and his add up to 99.

The Dems: No chart for the Democratic caucus because there were a total of three polls this month, which is a pathetic number. Worse than that, one of the three polls is from Gravis Marketing, a company in which I have no faith whatsoever.

Here's what the three polls say: It's a dead heat, Hillary leads by a point, Hillary leads by six points. The last numbers are from Gravis.

My best guess is it will be close and it can't be considered a real upset in either direction unless the gap is more than five points. If it's Hillary by five or more, I will publicly apologize to Gravis Marketing and I will still continue to mistrust them.

Back with the post-mortem tomorrow.

The national polls:Second week of February

 The GOP: We are in the midst of a polling drought after the New Hampshire results. The Republican race was polled only four times this past week and the Democrats only three.

Can these numbers be trusted? I would say the numbers at the top are currently correct. Trump has a big lead, Cruz is in second and Rubio has been damaged by his debate performance from before New Hampshire.

On the other hand, the number below None of the Above are a mess. Ben Carson has been ahead of Bush and Kasich for months, and that was his result in Iowa, but he was a complete non-factor in New Hampshire and is not above None of the Above in South Carolina. He says South Carolina will be a decision point. Right now, I'd say we won't have The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson to kick around anymore after Saturday.
  

The Dems: The average of three polls is not something I'm willing to call a trend. Sanders is now as close nationally as he has ever been, but if you see that sudden peak for Hillary at the end of November, that was a three poll week as well.

With any luck, there will be more numbers to work with next weekend. I'll be back next Saturday, certainly with an update on South Carolina for the Republicans, hopefully with some reliable numbers on the Nevada caucuses for the Democrats.

South Carolina GOP polling

Usually, my posts have information from both primary races, but for the rest of February, we have the situation that the two parties will not be holding their contests on the same day in either South Carolina or Nevada. The GOP has their South Carolina primary next Saturday and the Democrats caucus in Nevada that same day. There has only been one poll this month in Nevada - a Republican poll that shows Sanders and Clinton tied - so I will wait until there are at least two polls that can be averaged.

There has been a lot more polling of the Republican race in South Carolina, and right now the news looks good for Trump. He doesn't look to be in a tough race until Super Tuesday, and in a five-way race, he's going to be tough to beat. Carson is technically the sixth guy in the race and he's still in fourth place in national polls, but in states that are soon to make up their minds, the voters show that they know he's on a book tour, not a presidential campaign. He won't quit until Armstrong Williams thinks there is no profit in the continued book tour, but he does not look like a factor anywhere.

As I said, Carson is still in fourth place in national polls, but Bush and Kasich have overtaken him in South Carolina, much the same way they were in the race for second in New Hampshire. The four also-rans are taking more shots at each other than they take at Trump, and with the Supreme Court now front and center, it would be a great time for other GOP candidates to take a few shots at Trump's favorite judge, his older sister Maryanne Trump Berry, who sits on the Third Circuit Court of Appeals and has a strong pro-choice record in her decisions. This sounds like a perfect question for push polling, the kind of rat-fucking at which Karl Rove excels. The thing is, this story is 100% true, so it doesn't have to be a whisper campaign. The opposition research teams for his opponents really screwed the pooch in last night's debate.

Tomorrow: the national polls for both parties.

The New Hampshire polls:Final post before tomorrow's election

 The GOP: If the polls are anywhere near accurate, both the Republican and Democratic races for first place will have no drama and the media will have to invent any drama out of whole cloth. On the other hand, the race for second and the allocation of delegates in the Republican primary could have some drama.

Political junkies such as myself are still flapping our gums about Rubio's bad showing at the weekend's debate, but so far the tracking polls are not showing any significant downward movement on his part. While this average of polls puts him in second, it wouldn't really be an upset if either Kasich or Cruz catches Rubio. As long the spread between second and fourth is no more than five points and if all of them are over 10%, no one can claim victory. That said, if Kasich wins second, the press will pay him much more attention than they have so far.

While Jeb:( averages less than 10% this month, the size of the None of the Above gives him a good chance to be over the threshold if those people stay home or their votes break just about evenly, which means he'll get some delegates. It will definitely be an interesting story if he is not fifth, either by passing one of the people above him or getting caught by Chris Christie, who peaked in December then went right back into the invisible crowd.

As for moral victories, if the second place candidate is within ten points of Trump, that won't be good news for America's Favorite Birther™, whose national poll numbers slipped after his second place showing in Iowa last week.

The Dems: Here it is ALL expectation games. If Bernie wins by 20% or so, any positive spin from the Clinton is just hooey. I would set a 15% loss for Hilary as the Beat Expectations threshold, and a 25% win by Sanders brings us into the ass-whuppin' territory.

Wednesday: back with the post-mortem.

New Hampshire polls: The last week of January

The Dems: The story on this side is simple. It's a two-person race and Sanders appears to be pulling away. His median lead in all January polls is 11 points and that increases to 16 points when looking at the five polls in the last week. I'm sure the press will play down a victory in New Hampshire for Bernie, but it looks like it will be a comfortable win a week out.

The GOP: As I said last week, the drama in New Hampshire is not for first place, but for finishing over 10%, the threshold for delegates. I Apologize for how difficult it is to read the log jam for second place, but right now its Kasich at 11.9% and Cruz and Rubio tied at 11.6%.

Numbers I think are more relevant is how many times in January these five candidates polled above 10%, which tells a slightly different story. Each of the five candidates will be list with two numbers, the percent of the polls in January where their numbers were over 10%, and the same question, but only taking into account the polls in the past week.

Ted 'The Snake' Cruz: 79% for the month, 80% past week
Marco Rubio: 71% for the month, 40% past week
John Kasich: 64% for the month, 60% past week
Jeb:(: 29% for the month, 40% past week
Chris Christie: 29% for the month, 0% past week

These numbers would suggest Ted 'The Snake' Cruz is most likely to stay over the 10% threshold and Chris Christie is in serious trouble. We have one more week of polls before votes are cast on the 9th, so I will have another update next week.

Tomorrow: post-mortem in Iowa!

New Hampshire polls:Third week of January

The Dems: Sanders still has a comfortable lead in New Hampshire. The average for January is a 10.2 point lead, the median poll says 9 points. The Confidence of Victory method would give Bernie a 98% chance to come in first, but historically New Hampshire splits the delegates proportionally in both the Democratic and Republican contests; for the Democrats, the threshold to get delegates is 15%. For the Republicans, it is 10%. On the Democratic side, this means Martin O'Malley is shit out of luck. 15% for him would be a miracle.

The GOP: There is no drama for the first place finish like there is in Iowa, but the second through sixth contest has drama because of the 10% threshold. If the polling data is a fair indication, Rubio, Kasich and Cruz will have enough with Jeb:( and Christie will coming up short. But there is the idea of the confidence interval (or as it is known colloquially, the margin of error) and every one of the five guys in this pack has a measurable chance to succeed or fail.

I will admit that I always thought Trump would have faded by now, but he plays the media like a violin and his voters have not been turned off by anything he has said or done so far. Chuck Grassley introduced him to a crowd in Iowa, and though Grassley didn't endorse him, if the old school Republicans will be seen on the same stage with him, it's a sign the establishment is moving forward in its stages of grief. Bob Dole made a statement condemning Ted 'The Snake' Cruz - it looks like the 'nobody likes him' meme isn't an overstatement - and said Trump would be better than Cruz.

Here's a tiny piece of math the establishment could cling to. In this polling data, the two main outsiders add up to 41.9% and the four establishment Republicans add up to 41.8%. (I'm not counting Fiorina and Carson anymore, as their campaigns show no signs of life.) The thing is no one has really mounted an Anyone But Trump campaign effectively, so even when people drop out - and I expect several people to drop out after Iowa and New Hampshire - even voters whose first choice was someone traditional might switch over to Trump or Cruz, the least palatable candidates in the eyes of the establishment.

To quote Nassim Taleb, a writer I intensely dislike, this does look like a Black Swan event.

The New Hampshire polls:Second week of January

The Dems: It was a good week for Bernie Sanders, two new polls both showing him with a lead in New Hampshire. So far there have been five polls of the Democratic race in the Granite State in January and four of them say Sanders is leading. Because it is a two person race, my Confidence of Victory method can be used on the median poll to say Bernie would have an 80% chance of winning if the election were held on the day the poll was taken. Of course, these numbers can change as we get closer to election day.

The GOP: On the Republican side, all the interesting horse race stuff is the battle for second through sixth.  The worst poll numbers for Trump this month give him 25% support, the best numbers for anybody else are two polls that give Rubio 15%. Those two polls give the Florida senator a strong hold on second, but the most recent polls are showing a surge for John Kasich, now in third passing Ted 'The Snake' Cruz. The other notable movement is a slump for Jeb:(, who can't get anything right this campaign. Unless there is a miracle turnaround in the next few weeks, and Jeb:( is just not a miracle kind of guy, I would expect the people who gave serious cash to Jeb:( will want a partial refund by the time the New Hampshire results are tallied.

Tomorrow: the national polls.

The Iowa polls:Second week of January

The Dems: Last week, the data set used to discuss the situation in January was only two polls, which for me is the absolute bare minimum. It is now up to five polls, a more robust sampling, and the story has changed very little. Hillary leads in three of the five polls, Bernie leads in the other two. Every poll has both candidates getting 40% or more, none has anyone getting 50% yet. For O'Malley, one outlier poll has him at 8%, the rest have him between 3% to 5%.

So the average of the five polls now has Hillary with a 0.6 point lead. Since this is effectively a two candidate race, I can use my Confidence of Victory method and give Hillary about a 70% chance to come out ahead using the median poll, where her lead is 42% to 40% in a poll of 504 likely voters. As more polls come in, these numbers are very likely to change, but in what direction I cannot say.

The GOP: We could say Iowa effectively looks like a two person race, but I am reluctant to use the Confidence of Victory method when the top two candidates account for barely over half the responses, unlike the Democratic side where the top two candidates get about 90%. The January numbers are now based on six polls, and the respective positions of the four top candidates have not changed in any appreciable way, with Ted 'The Snake' Cruz still holding a slim half a point lead over Donald Trump. A story on the fivethirtyeight.com website rates the Cruz ground game as much better than Trump's, but for a news organization that prides itself on using math well, the method used for this story is slipshod.

A number that looks unimportant that I still find interesting is the slowing rate of decline for The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson in Iowa. In New Hampshire, his numbers are down among the no-hopers, but in Iowa he is still dominating establishment guys like Christie, Kasich and Jeb:(, all of whom are in the race for second in the Granite State. Once again, the ground game can make a big difference in Iowa, where turnout is tiny compared to New Hampshire, so I would actually be surprised if the polls are a perfect predictor of the candidate's relative positions when The Voters of the Corn actually come out on February 1st.

Tomorrow, the numbers from New Hampshire.

The New Hampshire Polls:First week of January

 The Dems: It is the prejudice of an old man for me to think New Hampshire is more important than Iowa, but if I may defend my position, Iowa will be a test of the most committed campaign's ability to get out their loyalists, while New Hampshire is about getting out a substantial percentage of the voting age population.

There were only five New Hampshire polls in December and so far, there are only three in January. The story hasn't changed much since the change from November. Bernie Sanders holds a small but steady lead over Hillary.

The GOP: Just as the press is giving more coverage to the Republican race, and of course Donald Trump in particular, there were more polls of their contest in December and in January than there were polls of the Democratic race.

The race for first place has no drama at all, but there is a fierce competition for second through sixth. Right now, Marco Rubio is alone in second at 13.3% in an average of four polls, while four candidates - Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, Jeb:(, Chris Christie and John Kasich - are all within spitting distance of one another at around 10%. I am breaking the rules I set for myself to mention everyone above None of the Above, but the crowd between 3% and 5% - Rand Paul, The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina - don't show any signs of gaining any traction.

Tomorrow: The earliest polls from Iowa.

The New Hampshire polls:Fourth Week of December

 The GOP: As December winds down, the big change in this graph is the disappearance of The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson and the appearance for the first time of John Kasich, marked in light green. As you can see, he hasn't made a big advance, but is now in fifth place and above None of the Above for the time being. Jeb:( is in sixth and might make an appearance next month if his numbers get a little better. Carson is in seventh now and his only good news is that nobody below him looks primed for a run.

The Dems: Only one new polls since the last time the info was posted and it showed Hillary with a small lead. Sanders still has the lead in the polling average for the month.

Tomorrow: the monthly averages from Iowa polling.

The New Hampshire polls:Third Week of December

The GOP: The slope graph shows the change in polling averages from November to December, but I am also going to list the change in the December average from week to week.

Trump +1.2
Cruz +1.0
Rubio +0.3
Carson -0.8
Christie +0.4
None of the Above:-1.8

Since I am supposed to be tracking the candidates above the None of the Above threshold, it's time to say goodbye to The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson. This chart shows him in fifth, but as of the latest polls, he is now in seventh, trailing Jeb:( and John Kasich. Barring a miracle, his numbers will not be part of the picture next week in New Hampshire, though he does remain in fourth place in Iowa and well ahead of the guys jockeying for fifth.

The Dems: Bernie Sanders had a good week, extending his lead over Hillary.

Sanders +3.0
Clinton +1.0
None of the Above -2.5
O'Malley -1.5

Of course, Iowa comes before New Hampshire and a good showing in the caucuses will effect the campaign coverage at the very least. A view of both races in The Hawkeye State tomorrow.
 

The New Hampshire polls: Second week of December

Welcome to the first installment of state poll watching, in particular New Hampshire. Sometimes, dominance in the national polls does not translate into dominance in every state poll, as we will see today and tomorrow, when we look at the Iowa numbers.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump does have a lead in the Granite State, though not quite as dominant as his lead nationwide, and it's Marco Rubio in second. Ben Carson's fall from grace in New Hampshire is much steeper than his national slippage and he is currently hovering below the None of the Above numbers.

Chris Christie is currently in fourth in New Hampshire and just barely behind Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, much better than his anemic national numbers putting him in sixth place, barely in the lead of the group hovering around 3%.

Not shown on the chart are Jeb:(, tied with Carson at 7.3%, and Kasich, polling at 7%. They aren't part of the picture because they haven't been above None of the Above either in November or December. If they improve, they could be included in the overall picture.

And then we have the Democrats, where we see our first inversion. Bernie Sanders is in the lead this month, though that only means two polls so far. (The paucity of polls is the reason I'm going with the monthly picture. This might change in January.) I can't predict if the press will give Sanders more coverage if he wins and makes it a horse race - the press loves horse races- or if they will accept the conventional wisdom that winning in New Hampshire is not a surprise because he's from Vermont. I think it will be the former, and if he pulls off a win in Iowa as well, then the press will run with the "Hillary's in trouble" meme for sure.

What's Bernie's situation in Iowa? Stop by tomorrow to find out.