Clinton vs. Trump. 18 September 2016, 51 days from the election

The long and short of it was that Hillary Clinton fell down, both literally and figuratively. Trump had his best week ever and is now in striking distance. The big question for the last seven weeks is if this is a trend or if Hillary can get back on track. Here are the numbers.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY AL ID TN UT MT SD OK KY WV MS LA MO AR AK SC KS IN TX  
Total: 159

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): ME-2 IA NE GA OH AZ FL

Total:86

Toss-up: NC
Total:15
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): NV CO MI WI RI NJ NH

Total:63

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): ME PA VA MN DE NM OR WA IL ME-1 CT DC MD MA NY VT HI CA
Total: 215

The current count 

CLINTON 278
TRUMP 245
TOSS-UP 15

Almost all the movement this week was in Trump's favor, gaining the median lead in both Ohio and Florida and bringing North Carolina into a 50-50 tie. Unlike 2004, where winning Ohio and Florida was just enough for George W. Bush to beat Kerry, the demographics have changed and Trump will need to get other wins in state that currently do not favor him. 

Here are the odds of victory using the 15 battleground states according to my algorithm.

 Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 122

The battleground states ranked by pqn: 
(Clinton%, Trump%, electors)

1. FL: 39%, 61%, 29
2. NC: 50%, 50%, 15
3. OH: 23%, 77%, 18
4. AZ: 36%, 64%, 11
5. MI: 85%, 15%, 16
6. CO: 71%, 29%, 9
7. GA: 10%, 90%, 16
8. NV: 66%, 34%, 6
9. TX: 3%, 97%, 38 
10. WI: 87%, 13%, 10
11. PA: 96%, 4%, 20
12. NJ: 94%, 6%, 14
13. VA: 96%, 4%, 13
14. IA: 9%, 91%, 6
15. NE: 10%, 90%, 5


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 89.7%
Trump 10.3% 


Instead of using the algorithm and looking at paths to 269 electoral votes, my choice of 11 states for battlegrounds going from most likely Trump to least likely would OH, AZ, FL, NC, NV, CO, MI, WI, NJ, PA and MN. This only brings his numbers up to 12.1%, not much of a difference and this is as generous a list as I can create in good conscience.

How can his odds be so bad when he only needs to get North Carolina in his leaning category and pull away one of several states from Clinton? The reason for this seeming contradiction is that he could lose his new won advantages and he has so many states in the leaning column he still has to defend.

Why would I think his gains of this week aren't certain? I looked at the numbers I compiled in 2012. After a disastrously low energy first debate, Obama's numbers against Romney sank in a similar way. After about a week and a half, they returned to their previous levels. A bad debate difference is not the same as a health scare, but if they are both temporary, I expect the effects will be temporary as well.

Earlier in the campaign, I wrote the race looks like an anaconda swallowing a pig: long, slow, ugly and inevitable. Right now it's doesn't look as inevitable, but I will wait a week to see if his current trend continues. With Hillary back on the trail, Trump defending his retreat from birtherism and his return to Twitter attacks, I have am not willing to call this race close yet.

Back next Saturday with information on the Senate.

Indiana

Trump's yuge win last Tuesday makes it much harder to stop him and a win this Tuesday in Indiana would make it nearly impossible. For the Republicans, Indiana is winner take all, the last such primary this month for the GOP. (The Democrats are proportional all the way down the line.) Ted 'The Snake" Cruz is in second according to most polls, though there was one strange outlier that had him ahead by 16. The most likely result according to the polls is a Trump win by single digits, say about 7 or 8. I would not be surprised if Kasich throws in the towel later this week.

Hillary's lead over Sanders is more modest, probably in the 4 to 5 point range. It would certainly count as an upset if either of the front runners lost, a much bigger and more stinging loss if Trump gets beat. The rest of May is mostly Western states and not very large prizes, so barring some dramatic development, I'll probably wait until the big June 7th set of primaries, which is mainly a Western test (California, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota) with New Jersey just to keep things strange.

Pundits are assuming it's Trump vs. Hillary, and I have no reason to say they are wrong, which is rare for me. Once that happens, it's a question of which party can close ranks the best and get out the vote, or in the case of the Republicans most effectively suppress the vote. This is not to say it looks like a toss-up, because Trump will be hard pressed to win any state Obama carried in 2012. It hardly counts as a prediction to say Trump will continue to be ill-informed and ill-mannered. If I am to go ever so slightly out on a limb without numbers to back me up, only history. People waiting for a bombshell that destroys Hillary, either Benghazi or the e-mail server, are very likely to be disappointed.

This presidential race looks something like an anaconda digesting a pig, long, ugly and inevitable. The more interesting contest will be in the Senate, where the Republicans have to defend 24 seats out of 34 being held. Predicting the House is much harder to do, though the Republicans losing the lower chamber currently looks unlikely. It all depends on how much of a drag Trump is on the ticket.