Clinton vs. Trump. 9 October 2016, 30 days from the election

Very good week for Clinton and all with polls taken before the audio tape emerged. Sam Wang at Princeton, who is much better known than I am and has a model very close to mine, thinks Republicans are abandoning Trump not because of the tape, but because they see his ship is sinking and the tape gives them an excuse. It will be interesting to see how the rescinded endorsements effect the Senate races.

Here is the list of states and district, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.


Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND NE-3 WY NE-1 ID WV AL NE AR OK MT MS KS KY UT SD LA TN SC MO TX NE-2 IN
Total: 161

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): GA AK IA AZ ME-2
Total: 37

Toss-up: NV
Total: 6
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): OH CO FL NC PA NM NH WI ME MI
Total: 128

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN VA DE CT NJ WA OR RI ME-1 MA IL NY VT HI MD CA DC
Total:206

 The current count 

CLINTON 334
TRUMP 198
TOSS-UP 6

All the movement from one category to another favored Clinton this week, the biggest move being Ohio switching sides. The best news for Trump is Nevada staying at 50%-50% and Florida and Colorado becoming more competitive for him, though still favoring Clinton.

By next week, the polls will reflect the Access Hollywood tape, the Republican defections and the results of the second debate. As I type this, the debate hasn't happened yet, but this is a Town Hall style format. The conventional wisdom is that going negative in a Town Hall is the quickest way to lose. Hillary doesn't have to get under his skin, she's already done that.

And for Clinton supporters, I now bring out the dessert.

 Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 153


The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. FL: 72%, 38%, 29
2. OH: 64%, 36%, 18
3. PA: 76%, 24%, 20
4. NC: 72%, 28%, 15
5. AZ: 31%, 69%, 11
6. CO: 67%, 33%, 9
7. NV: 50%, 50%, 6
8. WI: 89%, 11%, 10
9. MI: 94%, 6%, 16
10. GA: 5%, 95%, 16
11. IA: 13%, 87%, 6
12. NM: 88%, 12%, 4
13. IN: 4%, 96%, 11 
14. NH: 89%, 11%, 4
15. MN: 96%, 4%, 10


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 97.1%
Trump    2.9%

As I have stated many times, my system gives a snapshot of what would happen if the election were held today. While election day is now a month off, I would say Trump really has about two weeks to do something he has not done once this year. He needs to have an actual lead in states and districts that add up to 269 electoral votes. (My assumption is that if he can do that, the GOP will still hold the House and he would win the tie.) 

I do not claim to be psychic. I have no idea what news we will see in the weeks ahead. I have a hard time guessing what stories are going to gain traction. I would have assumed Trump CEO Steve Bannon being outed as an anti-Semitic wife beater was going to be a big deal and Trump's treatment of weight gaining beauty queen twenty years after the fact wouldn't even be important twelve hours later. 

For those of you keeping score at home, that's Reality 2, Hubbard 0.
 
But I will bring up my simile first written on May Day. This election will be like an anaconda swallowing a pig: long, slow, ugly and inevitable. It has been long, slow and ugly every damned day, but it wasn't completely inevitable for a few weeks in September.

September is over. I stand by the simile.

Back next Saturday to check out the Senate. Keep calm and make sure your friends are registered. 

The Senate Races 8 October 2016

The news for the GOP in the presidential race has been bad, but this week brought them good news in the battle to retain control of the Senate. One good poll for the Democratic challenger in Missouri has been outweighed by several good polls for the incumbent, and Evan Bayh's advantage in Indiana is slipping. The most likely single outcome is now 51 seats for the GOP. For four weeks, my system had a 50-50 split as the most likely result.

Here are the changes from last week.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 53.8%, up from 43.8%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 29.2%, down from 30.7% 
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 18.0%, down from 25.5%


My algorithm currently is set up to follow ten close races. As of this week, there are only four I consider truly close and the Republicans are playing defense in all of them.

Probable Republican pick-up: Harry Reid is retiring and Republican Joe Heck has held a consistent slim lead in the polls for months now in the race to replace Reid.

Very likely Republican losses: Russ Feingold in Wisconsin and Tammy Duckworth in Illinois are strong favorites to gain two seats for the Democrats. This would mean a net gain of one for the Democrats and the GOP would still have 53 senators.

Very likely holds for both parties: There's currently very little drama in Missouri or Florida for the Republican incumbents and even less drama in Colorado for the Democratic incumbent.

The four close races:
Indiana: Very little polling here and the most recent poll has Evan Bayh with a very slender one point lead, down from four in September and seven in August. My system now puts him as a 61% to 39% favorite, down from 85% to 15% just last month.

Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina: Many senate races have been polled only sporadically, but that is not true in these three states. In all three cases, there have been recent polls in favor of the Republican incumbents and others in favor of the Democratic challengers. Both Pennsylvania and North Carolina are flat-footed ties in my system and Kelly Ayotte's advantage in New Hampshire is about 51% to 49%. All three of these states are now in the Leaning Clinton camp. So far, the coattails on Hillary's pantsuits have been literally and figuratively very short.

Back tomorrow with news on the presidential race. Spoiler alert: all the competent aggregators agree on the general trend, though there is disagreement on the current odds.

Clinton vs Trump. 25 September 2016, 44 days from the election

Another good week for Trump, but important states are moving both towards his column and away from them. More on that after the numbers. RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND WY AL ID TN UT MT SD KY LA WV OK MS MO AK SC ME-2 KS AR IN TX  
Total: 160

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): IA NE GA OH NV AZ NC

Total: 77

Toss-up: FL
Total: 29
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): CO MI PA WI ME  RI NH NJ

Total: 79

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): VA WA MN DE NM OR IL ME-1 CT DC NY VT MA HI CA MD
Total:193

 The current count 

CLINTON 272
TRUMP 237
TOSS-UP 29

The big changes this week were Nevada and North Carolina moving into the Leaning Trump camp and Florida leaving the Trump total and going back to toss-up.  With Clinton at 272, she cannot afford to lose a single state that now supports her, a daunting proposition. My model is a snapshot and it gives Clinton much better odds than many others do, but right now these are very small slivers of hope. I will explain below why those slivers are a little larger than you might think.

Here are the odds of victory if the election was held today, using the 15 battleground states according to my algorithm.

Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 122

The battleground states ranked by pqn: 
(Clinton%, Trump%, electors)

1. FL: 50%, 50%, 29
2. NC: 45%, 55%, 15
3. PA: 82%, 18%, 20
4. OH: 18%, 82%, 18
5. MI: 79%, 21%, 16
6. AZ: 37%, 63%, 11
7. CO: 71%, 29%, 9
8. GA: 10%, 90%, 16
9. NV: 34%, 67%, 6
10. TX: 3%, 97%, 38 
11. WI: 87%, 13%, 10
12. NJ: 94%, 6%, 14
13. NE: 10%, 90%, 5
14. IA: 7%, 93%, 6
15. RI 91%, 9%, 4


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:

Clinton 84.8%
Trump 15.2% 

It should be expected that Clinton is still favored, but it might seem counter-intuitive that my model still has her as a solid favorite. It's all about playing defense. Yes, Trump only has to steal a state and has several to choose from. Colorado is easiest right now, but Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are in the realm of possibility. His odds are made longer because he also has to play defense, most especially in North Carolina and Florida, and to a lesser extent in Nevada. At the moment, Ohio doesn't look much like a battleground, Trump having the lead in eight of ten polls conducted in September. That said, Clinton has those kinds of advantages in the four states where she must play defense.

State: # of polls with Clinton leading in September of total # of September polls
CO: 6 of 8
MI: 5 of 5
PA: 6 of 7
WI: 5 of 5

There are two analogies I can point to right now, and they do not point in the same direction. Obama in 2012 had a bad first debate and his numbers fell for awhile, but after about a week and a half the numbers climbed back to their previous levels. The other is 2004, where it really came down to Ohio and Florida, and Bush only won re-election because he swept them. 2012 is an analogy in Clinton's favor if her numbers bounce back and it should be noted Obama's worst day had him still winning 278 to 260, then slowly climbed back over 300 electoral votes. The 2004 analogy should favor Trump, but Ohio and Florida in 2004 were both closely contested while none of the states he needs to steal currently are close.

Though my numbers are more confident than Nate Silver's, I'm still anxious seeing how close the Electoral College numbers are right now.  I'll be back next week after the first debate, which has every chance to be the strangest presidential debate in living memory.

It will also be October when next I write. There were times this year I thought it would never come.