The national polls:Third Week of December

 The GOP: Hanukkah has come and gone and so has the drought of polling data. There were only three polls each in the last week of November and the first week of December, but the last two weeks have had plenty of data and the message is simple.

Tropical Depression Trump is reaching hurricane force and only Ted 'The Snake' Cruz is making any headway.

Politicians vs Non-politicians: This particular graph is meaning less and less as time goes on, as Fiorina is still on a slow slide after her spectacular crash and Carson is still mid-spectacular crash. I think it might make more sense to start tracking Trump vs. The Next Three, because this week for the first time he is out-polling Cruz, Rubio and Carson combined.

(Note: for anyone terrified that sanity cannot prevail, the state level polls in Hew Hampshire and Iowa tell a different story.)

The Dems:  Not nearly as much drama in the national polls for the Democratic nomination, though like the GOP, there is some drama in the polls for the early state races.  As you might guess, all these polls are prior to the debate last night.

Tomorrow: the polls from New Hampshire.

The Iowa Polls: Second week of December

The Dems: Hillary Clinton's undeniable lead in the national polls is not enough for her to be leading in New Hampshire, but in Iowa it's another story. That said, I noticed a pattern in 2011-2012 that as primaries got closer to actually happening, the numbers could change dramatically as more of the electorate would be paying attention. Is this good or bad for Hillary? Let's look at the three numbers we have at the moment.

National polls: Clinton +25.1%
New Hampshire polls: Sanders +4%
Iowa polls: Clinton +15.8%

This small sample size says more scrutiny is not a good thing for Hillary and can give the Sanders fans some hope. As for O'Malley supporters, the numbers right now say... m'eh.

  

The GOP: As anyone paying attention knows, I'm putting up all the data on the declared candidates and None of the Above in the Democratic race, but I am not showing the lesser candidates among the GOP. In Iowa, all the dramatic changes are here, as Trump, Rubio and everyone not mentioned have changed less than a percentage point up or down, while three numbers visible on the chart have made big changes.

Cruz: up 12.2 points
Carson: down 8.4 points
None of the Above: down 2.7 points

The net effect looks like lots of Iowans are changing their minds and their new choice is Ted 'The Snake' Cruz. Of course, Trump is apoplectic about the bad news. I would not put it past Trump to simply buy a few thousand eligible Iowans for some single day payment in the $100 range to boost his numbers, though it will make his true believers feel like saps for showing up for free.

Making people feel like saps is standard operating procedure for Trump, so I don't think he'll lose any sleep over it.

More news next week.

The New Hampshire polls: Second week of December

Welcome to the first installment of state poll watching, in particular New Hampshire. Sometimes, dominance in the national polls does not translate into dominance in every state poll, as we will see today and tomorrow, when we look at the Iowa numbers.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump does have a lead in the Granite State, though not quite as dominant as his lead nationwide, and it's Marco Rubio in second. Ben Carson's fall from grace in New Hampshire is much steeper than his national slippage and he is currently hovering below the None of the Above numbers.

Chris Christie is currently in fourth in New Hampshire and just barely behind Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, much better than his anemic national numbers putting him in sixth place, barely in the lead of the group hovering around 3%.

Not shown on the chart are Jeb:(, tied with Carson at 7.3%, and Kasich, polling at 7%. They aren't part of the picture because they haven't been above None of the Above either in November or December. If they improve, they could be included in the overall picture.

And then we have the Democrats, where we see our first inversion. Bernie Sanders is in the lead this month, though that only means two polls so far. (The paucity of polls is the reason I'm going with the monthly picture. This might change in January.) I can't predict if the press will give Sanders more coverage if he wins and makes it a horse race - the press loves horse races- or if they will accept the conventional wisdom that winning in New Hampshire is not a surprise because he's from Vermont. I think it will be the former, and if he pulls off a win in Iowa as well, then the press will run with the "Hillary's in trouble" meme for sure.

What's Bernie's situation in Iowa? Stop by tomorrow to find out.

National polls: Second week of December

 Politicians vs. non-politicians: The two weeks prior to this had only three polls each. This week has nine polls. Given that much data, I think we can spot some trends.

The advantage the non-politicians (Trump, Carson, Fiorina) have over the rest of the GOP field shrunk a little. Given Carson's extended slump and Fiorina's hovering around 3%, I think these numbers could tighten up even more. Of course, Trump is still getting good news in the polls, but so are Cruz, Rubio and occasionally some of the folks in the back of the pack, notably Chris Christie in New Hampshire.

I would also like to say I predicted in mid-November that the advantage for non-politicians would continue a downward turn by Chanukah, and now that it's Chanukah, I can a small victory in a very mild prediction.

The GOP: There is some jockeying for second place, but Donald Trump is still the national leader. For the first time, Ted 'The Snake' Cruz is in second all by himself, Marco Rubio in third and Ben Carson is in fourth. I would not be surprised to see Carson slip under the None of the Above threshold by the middle of next month, if not sooner. (Count this as a prediction made.) To give a sneak preview of the features starting this week, his numbers in Iowa are bad and his trend in New Hampshire actually sucks.

The Dems: If we ignore the last two weeks due to small sample size, right now the national trends are minimal, Hillary and Bernie down slightly, None of the Above and O'Malley up, but also just slightly.

New features this week: It is my experience from 2011-12 that the national polls give a rough idea, but the state polls are where the real action is.  Accordingly, I will be publishing three times a week starting tomorrow.

Sundays: Still the same stuff I've been doing since August, national poll averages for the week for the GOP and Dems, as well as tracking the Non-politicians vs. politicians on the Republican side.

Mondays: Monthly averages for the top candidates in New Hampshire in both parties.

Tuesdays: Monthly averages for the top candidates in Iowa in both parties.

As a teaser, I can say that each state has bad news for at least one front runner.

Tune in tomorrow!

Post #19: The beginning of December

The post last week was based on only three polls and the same is true this week, though obviously three different polls. Nearly every big jump or big drop has had a course correction. We start with the Non-politicians advantage over the politicians, which appears to have stopped its slide for the time being. I think the trend will continue to slip over the next few weeks because both Carson's and Fiorina's numbers have been deflating over time. How long the love affair with Donald Trump lasts is anybody's guess, but he may very soon be doing all the heavy lifting.

The GOP: Donald Trump had a big jump last week, but came back down. His general trend is still positive.

Ben Carson plummeted last week, but he came back up. His general trend is still negative, but he is back in second place, with Ted "The Snake" Cruz in third and Marco Rubio in fourth. Jeb:( is still in fifth at around 6%. No one in the lower tier is above 3% this week. I speculated Mike Huckabee might make a run if Carson's numbers slipped, but his numbers just sit there like an old dead animal. I don't know how anyone now polling less than Jeb:( is going to make their mark in the next two months, and anyone who stinks the place out in both Iowa and New Hampshire is pretty much toast.

The one thing that makes me trust this week's three polls over last week's three polls is that None of the Above also bounced back. The big drop was due to a poll that said the undecided vote was at -2%. This is the perfect example of why I like more polls on which to base a weekly average, mainly to give the outliers less power. That said, Trump's alleged slump is based on a single outlier as well. We may not have seen Peak Trump yet.

The Dems: Once again, big changes that were shown in the graph last Sunday leveled out some this week. Hillary's peak performance came back down, but she still is well above 50% in the national average. Bernie had a good week and Martin O'Malley is back to polling under None of the Above. I cannot say with any confidence what the actual percentages for each candidate are, but I am convinced the relative positions - Hillary leading, Sanders second, O'Malley under None of the Above - are accurate.

Another update next week.

Post #18: The last week of November

I think what I am about to do is taught in Marketing 101 as Big Mistake #1, but I'm about to slam my product this week. There were only three polls released, largely because of the holiday, and because the data set is so small, we see some big swings that I can't recognize as real just yet. There may be more polls released on Monday and Tuesday that change the numbers, but if that's the case, we won't see them until next Sunday.

The GOP chart has the three huge changes, with Trump going up 6.3 points to his highest level ever, while Ben Carson drops 7.3 points into a tie for third and fourth place with Ted Cruz. (I think more polls will come in and Dr. Carson drop won't be as severe, but I do think the general downward trend will continue.) We also have a 3.3 point drop in None of the Above, the one result I can clearly explain.

I never name individual polling companies unless I plan to speak ill of their product, and that is the case this week with Gravis Marketing, a name I remember from 2011-12 with no fondness. While some companies are lazy about the undecided, Gravis is either dogged in their persistence or they make numbers up. I find the second explanation more likely. In any case, their poll results added up this week to show that -2% of the the GOP electorate is undecided at this juncture. It could be rounding error and it could be a bullshit poll. I think I have already said which I think is the more likely scenario.
 

Non-politicians vs politicians: Given that Carson dropped more than Trump rose, and add to that a small loss by Carly Fiorina, The gap between the totals for the politicians and non-politicians showed a rise for the politicians for the second consecutive week. Yet again, I don't trust these numbers completely.

The Dems: The explanation for the drop in None of the Above is the same as above, crazy low levels of N.O.T.A./Undecided from Gravis Marketing. It also shows big gains for Hillary and O'Malley and a small tick down for Sanders. I would not be surprised to see a course correction next week for all those numbers.

And as I just said, more numbers next week.

Post #17: The third week of November

 The Dems: This week, we will go from the easiest things to explain to the most difficult.

The graph is obvious. Hillary has a commanding lead, Sanders is clearly in second and O'Malley is gaining ground slowly. None of the Above is slowly descending from the peak value when the pollsters stopped asking about Biden and the actual candidates Chaffee and Webb dropped out.

O'Malley is actually on a Sunday talk show this week (ABC's This Week), so he might get a boost. His average percentage in the polls this week is an anemic 3.1%, but that is more than Christie, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Gilmore (snicker), Santorum, Jindal, Graham or Pataki. The first three guys on that list of losers are also on the Sunday shows, as are Ben Carson and Marco Rubio.

More of the obvious liberal bias of the media.

Non-politicians vs. Politicians: Here's the next simplest thing to explain. This was a bad week for non-politicians and a relatively good week for several people who have held elected office. As we will see in the next graph, None of the Above took a fairly big hit, though not big enough for Jeb:( to rise above it.
 

The GOP: Front runner Donald Trump had a small slip last week, but it could very likely just be a statistical wobble. His nearest contender Ben Carson is on a three week slide that seems real. From pyramid grain storage to belt buckles to a crazy re-alignment of all of New England in a map his campaign is using, Carson just keeps stepping in it. These aren't the results of gotcha questions, this is just reporting the stuff that comes out of his mouth and from his official campaign. I wish I could say he's clearly toast, but saying demonstrably wrong things is not enough to sink a campaign in 2015.

At least so far.

I do not count as the media, but I will admit bias. I have always thought that as Carson and/or Trump started slipping, the angriest politician would pick up the slack, and I predicted it would be Ted "The Snake" Cruz. I have given his graph a bright orange color, a dotted line and big triangular markings in honor of my nickname for him. This week, it looks like a dead heat for third between him and Marco Rubio, but in reality, Rubio leads 11.3% to 11.1%. The trends aren't crystal clear and a lot of crazy shit can happen in this race, but I expect Cruz will be no lower than second by the end of December.

There were some gains among the also-rans this week, as should be expected when Trump, Carson and None of the Above all decline. Christie had a bad week the week before this and slipped to 1.6%, but bounced back to 2.9% over the most recent seven day average. This keeps the New Jersey governor in the race for sixth place, hoping to pass Carly Fiorina, still at about half the support of Jeb:(, which is about half the level of Cruz and Rubio.

Have I said there are too many people in this race? Did I mention Jindal dropped out?

Okay, I said it and I mentioned it. There's nothing interesting to say about either of those facts, so let me repeat my modest predictions for the coming weeks.

1. Ben Carson will likely continue to slip.
2. Ted Cruz is most likely to gain as Carson and/or Trump lose ground.
3. I don't see any particular trend for Trump or Rubio at the moment.

I wish I could say Trump's closing of the mosques idea and his desire for a Muslim database will finally be the crazy shit wake-up call to his sleepwalking followers that his presidency would be a truly awful idea, but I honestly have no idea what will get people off the crazy train.

More next week.