The Senate Races 22 October 2016

Let's start with the basics. The Republicans currently have 54 Senators, the Democrats 44 and two independent Senators are part of the Democratic caucus.

34 seats are being contested. 24 of those seats are held by Republicans and 10 held by Democrats.

For the Democrats on defense, only Nevada looks close, the race to fill the seat being vacated by Harry Reid. More on that in the explanation of the close races.

For the Republicans on defense, they look to be losing three seats: Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana. Of the remaining 21 races, only four are close, one slightly favoring the GOP in North Carolina and three races that are flat-flooted toss-ups using the current data. Here is the graph for the current odds based on the number of Republican seats held.

Here are the trends in October. The last two weeks show momentum for the Democrats. In the very likely case of a Clinton victory, a 50-50 split in the Senate would mean a Democratic majority, as Vice President Tim Kaine would hold the deciding vote. This means that as of today, there is a 66% chance the Democrats will control the Senate. 

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright:
22 October: 33.9%
15 October: 41.2%
8 October: 53.8%
1 October: 43.8%

Probability of a 50-50 split: 
22 October: 32.0%
15 October: 31.0%
8 October: 29.2%
1 October: 30.7%

Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back outright:
22 October: 34.2%
15 October: 28.8%
8 October:18.0%
1 October: 25.5%

The close races.

Nevada. Using the last 10 polls, Republican Joe Heck has an advantage, his Confidence of Victory at 62%, compared to 38% for Catherine Cortez Masto. If we look at the most recent seven polls, three favor Heck, three favor Cortez Masto and the last says the race is a tie. As older polls are replaced in the forecast, these numbers could trend Democratic.

North Carolina: As in Nevada, the Republican candidate Richard Burr has a slight lead at 66% to 34% over challenger Deborah Ross in a very heavily polled race. Unlike Nevada, recent polls do not show any trend towards the Democrat. The current median puts it at a 1% to 2% lead.

The really close races: current median poll shows a tie

New Hampshire: Seven polls are being used in the New Hampshire race. Three favor the Democrat Hassan, two favor the incumbent Ayotte and two show the race even. Looking at the most recent, the trend looks to go in Hassan's favor.

Pennsylvania: I love the Irish names in this race, Pat Toomey vs. Katie McGinty. It reminds me of The Last Hurrah, but in politics that old school, both candidates would be male. Right now, eleven polls are being used, four that favor Toomey, three that favor McGinty and four that show a tie race. That means the average would be in favor the Republican. Like North Carolina, there is no recent trend towards the Democrat. If forced to choose a winner here, right now I would bet on Toomey.

Missouri: Unlike other tight races, this one has only been polled sparsely. There are three polls this month, Once favoring the incumbent Roy Blount, one favors challenger Jason Kander and one shows a tie at 44-44. If asked to gamble here, I would politely decline, based on the scarcity of real information.

Back tomorrow with Clinton and Trump, a race with some interesting twists and turns, but one extremely likely outcome.

 

Clinton vs. Trump. 16 October 2016, 23 days from the election

Here is the list of states and districts, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.


Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]):ND NE-3 NE-1 WY ID WV NE OK AL MT AR TN LA KY TX NE-2 KS MS SD GA
Total: 141

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): AK MO UT IN SC
Total: 39

Toss-up: AZ
Total: 11
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): ME-2 IA OH NV NC FL NH MN NM CO
Total: 103

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton):PA WI NJ VA ME DE OR MI RI CT ME-1 NY IL MD VT HI MA CA DC
Total: 244

The current count 

CLINTON 347
TRUMP 180
TOSS-UP 11


Not much good news for Trump. Georgia is always hovering around the 95% mark and this week it went above that number. Minnesota looks a little closer this week, but it's still at a comfortable 92% chance to go Clinton.


Trump is about at his basement number now, except maybe in the very rarely polled 2nd District of Nebraska. As of this writing, none of the states he holds are battlegrounds, instead they are very solidly in his camp.


That's the nice way to say that if a state is a legitimate battleground, Clinton is leading, or in the case of Arizona, it currently looks even and Clinton is trending in the right direction. And now the Probability of Victory numbers.

Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 128

The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. FL: 80%, 20%, 29
2. OH: 70%, 30%, 18
3. NC: 73%, 27%, 15
4. AZ: 50%, 50%, 11
5. IA: 64%, 36%, 6
6. NV: 71%, 29%, 6
7. SC: 9%, 91%, 9
8. MN: 92%, 8%, 10

9. IN: 6%, 94%, 11
10. MO: 6%, 94%, 10 
11. CO: 95%, 5%, 9
12. GA: 3%, 97%, 16
13. PA: 98%, 2%, 20
14. NH: 89%, 11%, 4 
15: UT: 6%, 94%, 6



Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 99.93%
Trump    0.07%

Here's where I'm supposed to give the reminder that this is a snapshot and not a prediction.

It's mid-October. In a very real sense, the election is being held today. I have my absentee ballot, I've filled it in and I'm walking it over to the Registrar of Voters today. In a lot of places, people are filling in their ballots, either early voting or absentee. We still have three weeks and change before we know stuff for a fact, but the Trump Slump continues, putting his chances of winning down to 724 parts per million. Obama never had a lead like this over Romney, this looks more like Obama-McCain.

Simply put, it's a major ass-kicking and it's very late in the game. 

Back next week Saturday with the very competitive race for the Senate.

The Senate Races 15 October 2016

The Senate races are polled much less often than the presidential election and there are fewer states I would consider true battlegrounds. The news was generally good for the Democrats' chances to re-take the Senate, returning the race to about the same shape it was two weeks ago.

Let's begin with the chart showing the odds for the number of GOP seats that will be held.

Instead of a two week look as usual, here's the last three week's numbers by category.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright:
15 October: 41.2%
8 October: 53.8%
1 October: 43.8%

Probability of a 50-50 split: 
15 October: 31.0%
8 October: 29.2%
1 October: 30.7%

Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back outright:
15 October: 28.8%
8 October:18.0%
1 October: 25.5%

Technically, a 50-50 Senate belongs to the party who has the vice president, and right now the presidential race is not much of a contest.

Here is the movement in the closest current races.

Nevada: Joe Heck still leads Catherine Cortez Masto in the race to replace Harry Reid, but this week one poll showed Cortez Masto ahead. This coincided with Heck withdrawing his support for Trump. Trump is likely to want revenge, but his first priority right now is proving all the women who have claimed he groped them are delusional or too ugly to be molested or both. We'll see if Trump can multi-task enough to hurt the GOP brand as much as he has hurt his own.

Current odds: 75%-25% GOP gain

Wisconsin: On the flip side, Wisconsin looked like a cakewalk for former Senator Russ Feingold to unseat Republican Ron Johnson, the race has tightened here and the median poll has a three point lead for the Democratic challenger.

Current odds: 85%-15% Democratic gain

Indiana: Challenger Evan Bayh has held the lead consistently, but the median poll says he only leads by three.

Current odds: 83%-16% Democratic gain

Missouri: My system uses the median poll and freshness dating. Any time a new poll is entered, any poll more than three weeks old is no longer considered. Early on, it looked like Roy Blount was a prohibitive favorite, but a mid month September poll showed challenger Jason Kander ahead. Now a mid-month October poll has Blount back in the lead in a close contest, all the older polls now being ignored. Even though I'm a libtard Commie, I assume the free market of the polling industry will be intrigued by something that looks like a close race and I will get more data to play with. So far in Missouri, the market has been disappointing.

Current odds: 66%-34% Republicans keep the seat

North Carolina: In these last three contests, the polling industry definitely treats these races as interesting. In North Carolina, ten polls have been taken in the last three weeks. Incumbent Republican Richard Burr has the lead in five polls, challenger Deborah Ross leads in three and two have an even split. While it has been going back and forth, Burr looks better in recent polls and my freshness dating factor could help in the weeks ahead as older polls fall out of the data set.

Current odds: 60%-40% Republicans keep the seat

New Hampshire: The race between GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte and Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan has five polls in the past three weeks. Each candidate has two polls showing her as the leader and the median has a flat-footed tie. Freshness dating doesn't favor either candidate.  This really looks like a nail-biter.


Current odds: 50%-50% Republicans on defense

Pennsylvania:In the past ten polls, Democratic challenger Katie McGinty leads in five, two show a tie and GOP incumbent Pat Toomey leads in the other three. Freshness dating moving forward gives Toomey a chance to climb up.

On a personal note, I love this all-Irish contest. It reminds me of old school East Coast politics. 
 
Current odds: 61%-39% Republicans lose the seat

Clinton vs. Trump. 9 October 2016, 30 days from the election

Very good week for Clinton and all with polls taken before the audio tape emerged. Sam Wang at Princeton, who is much better known than I am and has a model very close to mine, thinks Republicans are abandoning Trump not because of the tape, but because they see his ship is sinking and the tape gives them an excuse. It will be interesting to see how the rescinded endorsements effect the Senate races.

Here is the list of states and district, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.


Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND NE-3 WY NE-1 ID WV AL NE AR OK MT MS KS KY UT SD LA TN SC MO TX NE-2 IN
Total: 161

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): GA AK IA AZ ME-2
Total: 37

Toss-up: NV
Total: 6
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): OH CO FL NC PA NM NH WI ME MI
Total: 128

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN VA DE CT NJ WA OR RI ME-1 MA IL NY VT HI MD CA DC
Total:206

 The current count 

CLINTON 334
TRUMP 198
TOSS-UP 6

All the movement from one category to another favored Clinton this week, the biggest move being Ohio switching sides. The best news for Trump is Nevada staying at 50%-50% and Florida and Colorado becoming more competitive for him, though still favoring Clinton.

By next week, the polls will reflect the Access Hollywood tape, the Republican defections and the results of the second debate. As I type this, the debate hasn't happened yet, but this is a Town Hall style format. The conventional wisdom is that going negative in a Town Hall is the quickest way to lose. Hillary doesn't have to get under his skin, she's already done that.

And for Clinton supporters, I now bring out the dessert.

 Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 153


The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. FL: 72%, 38%, 29
2. OH: 64%, 36%, 18
3. PA: 76%, 24%, 20
4. NC: 72%, 28%, 15
5. AZ: 31%, 69%, 11
6. CO: 67%, 33%, 9
7. NV: 50%, 50%, 6
8. WI: 89%, 11%, 10
9. MI: 94%, 6%, 16
10. GA: 5%, 95%, 16
11. IA: 13%, 87%, 6
12. NM: 88%, 12%, 4
13. IN: 4%, 96%, 11 
14. NH: 89%, 11%, 4
15. MN: 96%, 4%, 10


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 97.1%
Trump    2.9%

As I have stated many times, my system gives a snapshot of what would happen if the election were held today. While election day is now a month off, I would say Trump really has about two weeks to do something he has not done once this year. He needs to have an actual lead in states and districts that add up to 269 electoral votes. (My assumption is that if he can do that, the GOP will still hold the House and he would win the tie.) 

I do not claim to be psychic. I have no idea what news we will see in the weeks ahead. I have a hard time guessing what stories are going to gain traction. I would have assumed Trump CEO Steve Bannon being outed as an anti-Semitic wife beater was going to be a big deal and Trump's treatment of weight gaining beauty queen twenty years after the fact wouldn't even be important twelve hours later. 

For those of you keeping score at home, that's Reality 2, Hubbard 0.
 
But I will bring up my simile first written on May Day. This election will be like an anaconda swallowing a pig: long, slow, ugly and inevitable. It has been long, slow and ugly every damned day, but it wasn't completely inevitable for a few weeks in September.

September is over. I stand by the simile.

Back next Saturday to check out the Senate. Keep calm and make sure your friends are registered. 

The Senate Races 8 October 2016

The news for the GOP in the presidential race has been bad, but this week brought them good news in the battle to retain control of the Senate. One good poll for the Democratic challenger in Missouri has been outweighed by several good polls for the incumbent, and Evan Bayh's advantage in Indiana is slipping. The most likely single outcome is now 51 seats for the GOP. For four weeks, my system had a 50-50 split as the most likely result.

Here are the changes from last week.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 53.8%, up from 43.8%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 29.2%, down from 30.7% 
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 18.0%, down from 25.5%


My algorithm currently is set up to follow ten close races. As of this week, there are only four I consider truly close and the Republicans are playing defense in all of them.

Probable Republican pick-up: Harry Reid is retiring and Republican Joe Heck has held a consistent slim lead in the polls for months now in the race to replace Reid.

Very likely Republican losses: Russ Feingold in Wisconsin and Tammy Duckworth in Illinois are strong favorites to gain two seats for the Democrats. This would mean a net gain of one for the Democrats and the GOP would still have 53 senators.

Very likely holds for both parties: There's currently very little drama in Missouri or Florida for the Republican incumbents and even less drama in Colorado for the Democratic incumbent.

The four close races:
Indiana: Very little polling here and the most recent poll has Evan Bayh with a very slender one point lead, down from four in September and seven in August. My system now puts him as a 61% to 39% favorite, down from 85% to 15% just last month.

Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina: Many senate races have been polled only sporadically, but that is not true in these three states. In all three cases, there have been recent polls in favor of the Republican incumbents and others in favor of the Democratic challengers. Both Pennsylvania and North Carolina are flat-footed ties in my system and Kelly Ayotte's advantage in New Hampshire is about 51% to 49%. All three of these states are now in the Leaning Clinton camp. So far, the coattails on Hillary's pantsuits have been literally and figuratively very short.

Back tomorrow with news on the presidential race. Spoiler alert: all the competent aggregators agree on the general trend, though there is disagreement on the current odds.

Clinton vs Trump. 2 October 2016, 37 days from the election

In last week's post, things improved for Trump, though he was still behind. This week's polls have reversed the trend, giving Clinton her best news in over a month.

Here are the list of states and districts in five categories, listed from Solid Trump to Solid Clinton. As of this week, both Maine and Nebraska's separate districts are on the list.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.


Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND NE-3 WY NE-1 ID WV NE AR OK TN MT AL LA TX UT SC AK MO MS KY SD KS NE-2 ME-2 IN 
Total: 165

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): IA GA AZ OH
Total: 51

Toss-up: NV
Total: 6
 
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): NC PA CO FL WI ME NM NH MI RI OR
Total: 121

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN VA NJ CT WA DE IL MD ME-1 NY VT CA HI DC
Total:195

The current count 

CLINTON 316
TRUMP 216
TOSS-UP 6

This week's polling made big changes in several true battleground states, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida, and all those changes were in Clinton's favor. The changes that helped Trump were less vital, moving Nebraska from Leaning Trump to Solid Trump, New Mexico and Oregon from Solid Clinton to Leaning Clinton. This brings Clinton's lead in the electoral college to a nice round 100 electors ahead.

If Clinton supporters feel like taking a sigh of relief, I will not stop you. More good news is coming.

 Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 165

The battleground states ranked by pqn: 
(Clinton%, Trump%, electors)

1. FL: 78%, 22%, 29
2. PA: 68%, 32%, 20
3. NC: 59%, 41%, 15
4. OH: 28%, 72%, 18
5. AZ: 26%, 74%, 11
6. CO: 77%, 23%, 9
7. NV: 50%, 50%, 6
8. GA: 10%, 90%, 16
9. MI: 90%, 10%, 16
10. WI: 83%, 17%, 10
11. IA: 18%, 82%, 6
12. NM: 89%, 11%, 4
13. MN: 96%, 4%, 10
14. VA: 97%, 3%, 13
15. NH: 89%, 11%, 4


Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 92.6%
Trump    7.4% 



I never loved that Texas was considered a battleground by my algorithm and because it's back in Trump's strong category, his baseline is at 165 electoral votes. That means he still has to capture 104 more, and that won't be easy. I have Clinton's chances at 92.6% to 7.4%. As I have said in the past, as a former gambler I hate to celebrate early, but it is nice to see a good week for Clinton with time slowly running out.


Many people ask me about Nate Silver. Let us start with what we have in common. We both think Hillary is in the lead and she had a very good week. Where we disagree is the how comfortable her lead is. Silver's polls only numbers are now at 66.8% to 33.2%.


People ask if I worry about how much Silver and I disagree. The answer is no. If I trusted his work, I wouldn't do this stuff week after week. He's well known but I think his product is weak. I'm an old school programmer from the 1980s. When I think of successful and not very good, I think of Microsoft.

Scratch that, I now think of Microsoft and Nate Silver.


If I have any concerns in this week's numbers, it's that Pennsylvania got closer. Right now, Trump's easiest paths to victory entail holding on to Ohio and winning Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Colorado and one other state of his choice. It these combinations of states to win that make his odds so long.


Of course, these are just the numbers, which are often not well reported. On the campaign trail, Trump is in a quagmire re-litigating the 1990s. From battles with beauty queens to bringing up Bill Clinton's infidelities to Trump's 1995 New Jersey tax return claiming a loss of $900 million, stuff from twenty years ago that should be ancient history politically is being kept daisy fresh and none of it to Trump's advantage.

I also want to apologize for all the negative things I said about the reporting in The New York Times this campaign. The tax stuff amounts to a nuclear sized bombshell. Susanne Craig, the woman at the Times who was sent these documents anonymously, has been asked if she has other stuff. Her answer was "no comment".


Yikes.


By next week, we should see the effect of the tax story on the polls and next Sunday, we get the second debate, a town hall style show.


I'll be back next Saturday with the latest numbers on the Senate.

The Senate Races 1 October 2016

It's October! There were times this summer when it felt like we'd never get here.

This week there were 13 Senate polls overall, a relatively low number. Only two states showed any major movement, one getting closer but not actually close in Florida, the other a very tight race leaning to the Republican side.

Here are the changes from last week.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 43.8%, up from 37.5%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 30.7%, down from 32.1% 
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 25.5%, down from 28.6%

Races that changed.
1. In Pennsylvania, GOP incumbent Pat Toomey is now a slight favorite to beat challenger Katie McGinty at 54% to 46%. Last week, she was favored 63% to 37% and the week before, it was a 50% to 50% call. Right now, this is the most volatile race.




2. Florida isn't close, but it's getting closer. Marco Rubio was a 92% to 8% favorite last week, but that slipped to 86% to 14%.

For the fourth consecutive week, the two most likely outcomes are the Republicans with either 50 or 51 seats. The Democrats taking the Senate back is the third most likely outcome.



Back tomorrow with the numbers in the presidential race.