Monday, September 7, 2015

Post #6:
August 29 to September 4

 The GOP: This week is just more of the same. The top three candidates - the runaway leader Trump, the surging insurgent Ben Carson and the establishment favorite JeBush Bush, all saw gains, as did None of the Above. As you might guess, with all those percentage points being added to the leaders, there wasn't much chance for the people below None of the Above to show improvement. The only candidate down in the bottom tier to show any increase at all is Bobby Jindal going for 0.7% to 0.8%, and that's more like a hiccup than a trend.

It would be interesting to see how the Democrats would treat a celebrity candidate, but that will have to remain a thought experiment for the time being. As it stands this week, the numbers in the GOP are:

Non-politicians 50.1%
Politicians 41.9%
None of the above 8%

The conventional wisdom is still that Trump will fall, but so far every death knell has been nothing of the sort. I'm stunned that people don't just get tired of him, but I am pleased and proud to say I am clearly not his target market. Many other candidates are also throwing red meat to their angry constituency, but if we accept that there's a talent to being an asshole, the strong evidence is that Trump is a natural and the rest of these sphincters just don't have his skill level.

The Democrats: The news hasn't changed that much here, with Hillary still leading Bernie Sanders about two to one. The information I am "hiding" accord to my above None of the Above criterion is that Joe Biden is now well above that line at 15%. Back in August a lot of pollsters didn't include Biden as an option, but the last six polls have, and that is one of the reasons his numbers are improving. He hasn't caught Sanders once and on average trails Bernie by about 8 points. If I see a real improvement in his numbers, I'll show them, but I'd really rather look at the declared candidates.

I'll be back next week with more.

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