Sunday, November 6, 2016
Clinton vs Trump.
6 November 2016,
2 days before the election
I usually wait on Sundays for the morning talk shows to be over, since it's common that at least one will roll out some new polls. I'm breaking with that rule today because my next update is the final post late Monday night. This is the dress rehearsal.
I could never have started this hobby without the Internet making it so easy to find polling data. I always wanted information I could rely on, especially because it's been a cliche for generations that there will be reports on the last weekend that state "the race is tightening", even in the big blowouts like Reagan-Mondale and Bush-Dukakis.
This weekend, it appears to be true. I'll save the in-depth stuff for Monday night and just give the snapshot info in this post.
Here is the list of states and districts, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton. RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.
Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]):
NE-3 WY OK NE-1 AL AR ID KY NE WV LA SD ND MT MS KS TN TX MO IN
Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): SC NE-2 AZ GA UT OH AK
Toss-up: NV IA
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton):
NH ME-2 FL NC PA MI CO NM
Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton):
WI VA ME CT MN OR ME-1 NJ RI DE IL MD WA NY MA HI CA DC VT
The Current Count
The only red moves that really matter are Ohio back in the Trump column and Nevada and Iowa now rated toss-ups.
We are at a time in the contest when valuable information about early voting is available. My algorithm does not take it into account. The late polls say Nevada got closer and moved in Trump's favor. The lines for early voting in Nevada at a predominantly Hispanic polling place and the numbers from Clark County in general look to favor Clinton and the Democrats. This is interesting and useful data, but I don't factor it in. If the late polls today and tomorrow still rate Nevada and Iowa toss-ups, I will squeeze my algorithm a little harder.
Here are the odds my algorithm produces for victory for each candidate if the election were being held today. In a very real sense, it is being held today, given the number of states with early voting, available in all but ten states, and the increasing popularity of absentee ballots, available everywhere, though some states make people fill out a reason.
Trump's chances are no longer parts per million, but his paths to victory are extremely narrow and time is running out fast. If instead of using my algorithm I used my gut feeling about the states he should not lose and let my algorithm look at the states he needs to steal from Clinton, his odds climb up to about 4.0%.
Even giving Trump advantages I would deny to Clinton, it's not very close.
My last update will be Monday night after 9:00 pm Pacific time, which is midnight on the East Coast. At that time, I'll make my final predictions in the 34 Senate races, The 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska that make those states proportional.
Hold on. The end really is in sight.