My schedule for the weekend is Senate today and the Presidential races on Sunday, but I'll also have a final prediction on Monday night. My feeling is that there are only three races where changing a seat from one party to another looks like a lock now, and there are five races that are not completely decided. Here's the chances for how many senators will be in the Republican caucus this January.
Three races where the Republican seat is likely to switch.
Illinois
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: over 99.99%
Polls in the last three weeks: 3
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 3
Even before Mark Kirk went Full Metal Asshole in the debate (first mistake) and then apologized (for a 21st Century Republican, his second mistake), the polls showed him way behind. My system counts this as a lock. Eventually, my system will get one of these wrong, but it hasn't happened yet. Tammy Duckworth will be in the Senate in January if 1+1 = 2 still is true this Tuesday.
Wisconsin
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: 85%
Polls in the last three weeks: 9
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 9
The median poll says this shouldn't be a blowout, but it would be a real shock if this is wrong. Russ Feingold should be back.
Pennsylvania
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: 75%
Polls in the last week: 8
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 7
Pennsylvania has no early voting, so I change the freshness dating to one week. Knowing the universal popularity of absentee ballots, which are allowed in every state though some ask for an excuse ("I'm going to be on one of the moons of Saturn that week"), this is a part of the algorithm I might change. Even if I did, I do limit my data set to the most recent ten polls, and in that set the Democrat leads in eight, with one tie for the GOP and one lead. Katie McGinty should prevail over Pat Toomey in this all-Irish American donnybrook. For me, this is kind of a sweet reminder of old school East Coast politics.
Five races that are still not completely determined.
Indiana
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: 50%
Polls in the last three weeks: 5
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat:2
Polls showing a tie: 1
Polls showing a lead for the Republican:2
Any new poll in the next 60 hours or so could change my current view of the race. Right now, with a tie in three weeks, I'd look at the latest three polls and give the nod to the Republicans. One new poll that doesn't show a tie between now an Monday night will tip the scale, which now favors the GOP.
New Hampshire
Confidence of Victory for Democrat: 50.73%
Polls in the last week: 8
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat:4
Polls showing a lead for the Republican: 4
As the designer of the algorithm in which I put my faith, this race shakes that faith to the core. Maggie Hassan's lead here is one due to her two point lead in one poll looks a little better than Kelly Ayotte's two point lead in another. Any new poll will turn the algorithm around. I'm only use eight polls, all from the last seven days because New Hampshire has no early voting. If I used more, it would be advantage Ayotte.
I really don't know what will happen here and right now, this is the race that decides the control of the Senate.
No pressure.
Missouri
Confidence of Victory for the Republican: 59%
Polls in the last three weeks: 8
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 2
Polls showing a tie: 2
Polls showing a lead for the Republican: 4
It will take several polls to get my algorithm to favor upstart Jason Kander over incumbent Roy Blount. I consider this a hold for the GOP unless new data goes crazy in favor of the challenger in the next few days.
North Carolina
Confidence of Victory for the Republican: 59%
Polls in the last three weeks:11
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat:3
Polls showing a tie: 2
Polls showing a lead for the Republican: 6
My best guess is a held seat for the Republicans. Only a pro-Democratic flurry between now and Monday night will sway me from this opinion.
Nevada
Confidence of Victory for the Democrat: 66%
Polls in the last three weeks: 10
Polls showing a lead for the Democrat: 6
Polls showing a tie: 1
Polls showing a lead for the Republican:3
This is the only seat where the Democrats are playing defense in a serious way, hoping Cathy Cortez Masto can defend Harry Reid's vacant seat. The lines for early voting in Latino precincts are a data point worth noting, but they aren't in my algorithm. I'm assuming this prediction will not change between now and Monday night.
The dress rehearsal for the final prediction.
Democrats hold 10 of 10 seats.
Republicans lose 4 of 24 seats.
Senate numbers in January: 50 Dem and allies, 50 Republican
I don't do any work towards the prediction of the House, but my guess is the closeness of the Senate and the race for the White House is likely not enough for the Democrats to re-take the House from the GOP. Unless the Democrats can convince their base that elections happen every two years instead of every four, this will mean obstructionism will likely continue in Washington for the foreseeable future.
In some ways I hope I'm wrong, and I put no confidence in my guess about the House, but that's what the numbers say right now.
Tomorrow: the dress rehearsal of the final prediction for Clinton-Trump. (Spoiler alert: Clinton.)
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