Sunday, August 9, 2015
Week of August 2 to August 8
What will kill Trump?
All these polls are taken before the debate on Thursday night, so next week's numbers will be a solid sign of how much of an effect being rude to Megyn Kelly will have on Trump's numbers.
I can point with some pride to a sentence I wrote last week: "The thing most likely to kill his candidacy would be someone in the conservative media attacking him." Well, Fox News has made him a pariah and Erick Erickson uninvited him from the Redstate get-together this weekend. (Erickson getting upset about a guy having Neanderthal views about women is either ironic, shameless or clueless on his part, possibly some combination of the three.)
I have decided to use dotted lines for candidates whose numbers have sunk below None of the Above. I think there's a good chance Scott Walker will rise again, while Marco Rubio's numbers put him in the middle of the pack wobbling at about 5% trying to break out. Next week's numbers could see a breakthrough for one of them.
Back next week with Trump's fall from grace. Or not. It's an easy mistake to underestimate the asshole vote in the GOP nomination process.