Sunday, August 9, 2015

Post #2:
Week of August 2 to August 8

 The Republicans. Second verse, same as the first.

What will kill Trump?

All these polls are taken before the debate on Thursday night, so next week's numbers will be a solid sign of how much of an effect being rude to Megyn Kelly will have on Trump's numbers.

I can point with some pride to a sentence I wrote last week: "The thing most likely to kill his candidacy would be someone in the conservative media attacking him." Well, Fox News has made him a pariah and Erick Erickson uninvited him from the Redstate get-together this weekend. (Erickson getting upset about a guy having Neanderthal views about women is either ironic, shameless or clueless on his part, possibly some combination of the three.)

I have decided to use dotted lines for candidates whose numbers have sunk below None of the Above. I think there's a good chance Scott Walker will rise again, while Marco Rubio's numbers put him in the middle of the pack wobbling at about 5% trying to break out. Next week's numbers could see a breakthrough for one of them.

The Democrats. Like with the Republicans, None of the Above is rising slowly but steadily. This could be a sign of disaffection with the candidate field or just a sign that some pollsters are lazier than others about getting a choice from the respondents. The big unshown factor is Joe Biden, who is polling just below None of the Above even though he hasn't announced. If he breaks through, the None of the Above vote might slip under 1%.

Back next week with Trump's fall from grace. Or not. It's an easy mistake to underestimate the asshole vote in the GOP nomination process.

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