Sunday, August 16, 2015

Week #3:
August 9 to August 15

The GOP: No polls were taken this week of the Democratic nomination at the national level, while I found links through Pollster and Real Clear Politics to five national polls for the GOP nomination. All of these polls were taken after the debate on Fox News, where the main story was how Donald Trump was a pig and his popularity would have to plummet.

The Big Losers: I only show the marks for the candidates who have been above the level of None of the Above for at least a week, which as of this writing means Trump, Bush, Walker and Rubio. In terms of points lost, Bush is the worst with three points lost, Walker is next worst with 2.8 points lost and Trump gets the bronze, losing 1.4 points. In terms of how much what percentage of their support went away this week, only Walker's loss of 29.4% of his support can match the dreadful showing of some of the no hope also-rans listed here.

Pataki -46.7%
Santorum -41.8%
Perry -37.8%
Jindal -31.4%

All of these candidates are currently below 2% support, so they might see an uptick, but they are miles away from mattering right now and heading in the wrong direction.

The Big Winners: I am loath to write it, but numbers are numbers. Carly Fiorina jumped into the top half of the candidate list, going from 1.3 to 6.4, which puts her in seventh place overall. As the dotted purple line shows, Marco Rubio finally has a week with positive momentum, getting back to 8.0. The guy who is currently in third and looks like the next candidate to break out over the None of the Above mark is Ben Carson, currently at 8.8, up from 5.4 the week before and his best showing yet.

With Trump still cruising along and Carson and Fiorina getting a boost, the percentage of GOP voters in love with a non-politician has jumped from 28.7 points at the end of last month to 38.6 points as of this Sunday. With Fiorina got some press saying Hillary has no accomplishments - a lot of chutzpah for a businesswoman who tanked a Fortune 500 company - Ben Carson calling Obama an anti-Semite and Trump just being Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if their share of the vote goes up again next week.

Can Ben Carson get above None of the Above? Can JeBush Bush stay above None of the Above by defending what his brother did in Iraq? Can Jim Gilmore, the only declared candidate not invited by Nancy Reagan (?!) to the CNN battle royale next month, take a hint?

The answers to these questions and more next Sunday.


  1. Be fair. Tanking HP is a kind of accomplishment...

  2. Also, I may be a bad person for saying this, but I am hoping to see walker drop Below None Of The Above in the next few months....

    1. He's already there. If he stays there for four weeks straight, I'll erase him from the shown candidates.