Sunday, August 23, 2015

Post #4:
Week of August 15 to 21

GOP: Remember that thing that was going to kill Donald Trump's popularity? There's been about one a week for a while now. None of them have worked. Numbers wobble around, but his general trend is on the upswing. I thought conservative media going against him would put a dent in things, but a lot of talk radio is behind him.

Then there's JeBush Bush. The subtext of a lot of his coverage right now is that he's just not good at campaigning. The Very Serious People said that the Republicans were going to have a real chance with Hispanic voters if they nominated Bush or Rubio, but unless they have found the warehouse where all those Men In Black amnesia sticks are being stored, the party nationally is going to learn the same lesson the California party learned with Pete Wilson.

Here are the categories by popularity.

The Leader: Trump, obvs.

Tier #2: Right now, JeBush Bush and Ben Carson - King of the Jews - are actually above None of the Above. Scott Walker was genuinely in the race for second spot, but he has slipped and is now tied with None of the Above.

Tier #3: Here are the people around 5% to 6%: Rubio, Huckabee, Paul, Cruz and Fiorina. Two weeks ago, Fiorina was getting a lot of buzz, but this week was all buzzkill for her as reporters noticed she was hated by employees, stockholders and the board of Hewlitt-Packard, which is known as The Fiorina Hat Trick.

Tier #4: Three governors, Christie, Kasich and Perry, are around 3%. Kasich could be there because of lack of name recognition. Christie and Perry are there due to too much name recognition. You can stick forks in both of them. If you stick it in the fleshy parts, Christie won't notice. As for Perry, I'm not certain his central nervous system works at all.

The Bargain Basement:  Why in God's name are Santorum, Jindal, Graham, Pataki and Gilmore sticking around? A big explanation is Santorum 2012. He was a no hope candidate, but after Perry and Cain and Gingrich all flamed out, he was the last anti-Mitt Romney.

DEM: The Democratic race is simpler. Hillary has a big lead and Sanders is in second place. I wouldn't put that much stock in her seeming decline and his seeming rise, because we have very few polls compared to the Republican race, only 8 when the GOP has had 24. What we are seeing might just be drift due to a small data set.

The reason the Average of Others is as high as 2.8 is Joe Biden, who might wander over the None of the Above number soon. My position is that he will not be part of the graph until he declares or he passes Sanders. I don't expect either of those events, but time will tell.

We also have The Bargain Basement Democrats. I think Webb, O'Malley and Chafee are hoping some scandal brings Hillary low, but we've seen this story for over twenty years now and it's amazing people thing that e-mail will be her Waterloo.

I'll be back next week. I don't expect much in terms of drama, but you never no. The big tension in my mind is how long the Republican party can be this gleeful about committing suicide.

1 comment:

  1. Walker can get lower, I guarantee it. Missus Z and I were discussing the level of his dumbitude this weekend; example used was the Talgo train debacle in which the Turd canceled a light rail project (which was to receive federal FREE MONEY!! and in fact had already received some, which had been spent; triggering a payback clause which immediately put Wisconsin 2 million dollars backwards). A train manufacturer, Talgo, had set up in Milwaukee to manufacture train cars in contract to the state, and with the rail line canceled, they found their order canceled; so they closed their factory (sending Walker's jobs pledge in the negative direction). A subsequent lawsuit found in Talgo's favor, and Wisconsin is on the hook for the full $10 million dollar value of the contract. And finally, Talgo gets to keep the train cars they've built, and other states have expressed a willingness to buy them.

    Republican governance, ladies and gentlemen...