Saturday, February 20, 2016

Polls for today's contests: The Republicans in South Carolina, The Democrats in Nevada

The GOP: Polling companies have been working hard getting numbers for today's primary in South Carolina, the first big test after New Hampshire for the Republicans. There have been eighteen polls in the past ten days and while there have definitely been outliers, the general trend agrees on this rough picture.

1. Trump should win. If anyone gets within ten percentage points, it should be counted as a moral victory.

2. Rubio and Cruz are in a tough battle for second. The only way this race can be considered an upset is if one of them is ten percentage points higher than the other.

3. Kasich and Jeb:( are in the hunt for the fourth and fifth spots.

4. The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson should be a non-factor in sixth.

Here are the numbers Nate Silver tweeted last night.

Trump 31
Rubio 20
Cruz 20
Jeb:( 11
Kasich 9
Carson 8

Here's my best guess.

Trump 36
Rubio 19
Cruz 19
Jeb:( 10
Kasich 10
Carson 7

 Basically, I'm bullish on Trump in comparison to Silver's numbers and ever so slightly bearish on everybody else. If I have a slight advantage here, my numbers add up to 100 and his add up to 99.

The Dems: No chart for the Democratic caucus because there were a total of three polls this month, which is a pathetic number. Worse than that, one of the three polls is from Gravis Marketing, a company in which I have no faith whatsoever.

Here's what the three polls say: It's a dead heat, Hillary leads by a point, Hillary leads by six points. The last numbers are from Gravis.

My best guess is it will be close and it can't be considered a real upset in either direction unless the gap is more than five points. If it's Hillary by five or more, I will publicly apologize to Gravis Marketing and I will still continue to mistrust them.

Back with the post-mortem tomorrow.

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