Monday, February 15, 2016

The national polls:
Second week of February

 The GOP: We are in the midst of a polling drought after the New Hampshire results. The Republican race was polled only four times this past week and the Democrats only three.

Can these numbers be trusted? I would say the numbers at the top are currently correct. Trump has a big lead, Cruz is in second and Rubio has been damaged by his debate performance from before New Hampshire.

On the other hand, the number below None of the Above are a mess. Ben Carson has been ahead of Bush and Kasich for months, and that was his result in Iowa, but he was a complete non-factor in New Hampshire and is not above None of the Above in South Carolina. He says South Carolina will be a decision point. Right now, I'd say we won't have The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson to kick around anymore after Saturday.
The Dems: The average of three polls is not something I'm willing to call a trend. Sanders is now as close nationally as he has ever been, but if you see that sudden peak for Hillary at the end of November, that was a three poll week as well.

With any luck, there will be more numbers to work with next weekend. I'll be back next Saturday, certainly with an update on South Carolina for the Republicans, hopefully with some reliable numbers on the Nevada caucuses for the Democrats.

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