Monday, February 29, 2016

The Democrats: End of February and Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday is tomorrow and the polls in both parties are making then nominations look inevitable. Tracking the national popularity polls is not the most accurate barometer and it just a single week's result, but it looks like we might be looking at Peak Sanders as Hillary edges over the 50% mark once again.

More to the point, the Super Tuesday numbers that are available show Sanders looking good only in the northeast, at least in the contests that have enough data to make any kind of informed judgment. Here's the list for tomorrow's races.

No data at all from February
The two caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota did not get any polling, and in caucus states this may be just as well. There are also two overseas contests, American Samoa and Democrats Living Abroad, though in the second, March first is just the first day in a week long polling period.

I would not stake not be surprised by strong showings by Sanders in either Colorado or Minnesota, but that's just guesswork on my part.

Minimal polling in February
Alabama was polled only once this month and Clinton has a substantial lead there.

As for the contests that have been polled twice, Sanders will smash Clinton in his home state of Vermont, Hillary looks very good in Arkansas and Tennessee, and Oklahoma shows an advantage for Clinton, though one of the two polls has it fairly close and the undecided vote is very high.

States with several polls in February
Massachusetts looks too close to call, which is not good news for Sanders. The other three contest look like cakewalks for Hillary, leading by 20 in Virginia, 25 in Texas and a whopping 37 in Georgia.

I may be too old to be a Bernie Bro, but I will admit I have sent him money in the past. His long odds will get a little longer after tomorrow night if the polls are anywhere near accurate. For me, it feels a little like when I worked for Eugene McCarthy in 1968, which means it hurts and it sucks seeing him come up short. I had no enthusiasm for Humphrey and he lost in the general election to Nixon.

Well, I'm a grown-up now and I will support Hillary if she gets the nomination. As bad as Nixon was, the Republican standard bearer in 2016 will be worse, and if it's Trump, much much worse.

The Republican situation tomorrow.


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