Sunday, February 14, 2016

South Carolina GOP polling

Usually, my posts have information from both primary races, but for the rest of February, we have the situation that the two parties will not be holding their contests on the same day in either South Carolina or Nevada. The GOP has their South Carolina primary next Saturday and the Democrats caucus in Nevada that same day. There has only been one poll this month in Nevada - a Republican poll that shows Sanders and Clinton tied - so I will wait until there are at least two polls that can be averaged.

There has been a lot more polling of the Republican race in South Carolina, and right now the news looks good for Trump. He doesn't look to be in a tough race until Super Tuesday, and in a five-way race, he's going to be tough to beat. Carson is technically the sixth guy in the race and he's still in fourth place in national polls, but in states that are soon to make up their minds, the voters show that they know he's on a book tour, not a presidential campaign. He won't quit until Armstrong Williams thinks there is no profit in the continued book tour, but he does not look like a factor anywhere.

As I said, Carson is still in fourth place in national polls, but Bush and Kasich have overtaken him in South Carolina, much the same way they were in the race for second in New Hampshire. The four also-rans are taking more shots at each other than they take at Trump, and with the Supreme Court now front and center, it would be a great time for other GOP candidates to take a few shots at Trump's favorite judge, his older sister Maryanne Trump Berry, who sits on the Third Circuit Court of Appeals and has a strong pro-choice record in her decisions. This sounds like a perfect question for push polling, the kind of rat-fucking at which Karl Rove excels. The thing is, this story is 100% true, so it doesn't have to be a whisper campaign. The opposition research teams for his opponents really screwed the pooch in last night's debate.

Tomorrow: the national polls for both parties.

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