Sunday, October 16, 2016

Clinton vs. Trump.
16 October 2016,
23 days from the election

Here is the list of states and districts, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]):ND NE-3 NE-1 WY ID WV NE OK AL MT AR TN LA KY TX NE-2 KS MS SD GA
Total: 141

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): AK MO UT IN SC
Total: 39

Toss-up: AZ
Total: 11
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): ME-2 IA OH NV NC FL NH MN NM CO
Total: 103

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton):PA WI NJ VA ME DE OR MI RI CT ME-1 NY IL MD VT HI MA CA DC
Total: 244

The current count 



Not much good news for Trump. Georgia is always hovering around the 95% mark and this week it went above that number. Minnesota looks a little closer this week, but it's still at a comfortable 92% chance to go Clinton.

Trump is about at his basement number now, except maybe in the very rarely polled 2nd District of Nebraska. As of this writing, none of the states he holds are battlegrounds, instead they are very solidly in his camp.

That's the nice way to say that if a state is a legitimate battleground, Clinton is leading, or in the case of Arizona, it currently looks even and Clinton is trending in the right direction. And now the Probability of Victory numbers.

Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 128

The battleground states ranked by pqn:

(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. FL: 80%, 20%, 29
2. OH: 70%, 30%, 18
3. NC: 73%, 27%, 15
4. AZ: 50%, 50%, 11
5. IA: 64%, 36%, 6
6. NV: 71%, 29%, 6
7. SC: 9%, 91%, 9
8. MN: 92%, 8%, 10

9. IN: 6%, 94%, 11
10. MO: 6%, 94%, 10 
11. CO: 95%, 5%, 9

12. GA: 3%, 97%, 16
13. PA: 98%, 2%, 20
14. NH: 89%, 11%, 4 

15: UT: 6%, 94%, 6

Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 99.93%
Trump    0.07%

Here's where I'm supposed to give the reminder that this is a snapshot and not a prediction.

It's mid-October. In a very real sense, the election is being held today. I have my absentee ballot, I've filled it in and I'm walking it over to the Registrar of Voters today. In a lot of places, people are filling in their ballots, either early voting or absentee. We still have three weeks and change before we know stuff for a fact, but the Trump Slump continues, putting his chances of winning down to 724 parts per million. Obama never had a lead like this over Romney, this looks more like Obama-McCain.

Simply put, it's a major ass-kicking and it's very late in the game. 

Back next week Saturday with the very competitive race for the Senate.


  1. I voted early in 2008. But I kind of like going n Voting Day, because A) we get to vote in this lovely place: And B) my conservative neighbor is a poll worker and I like to remind him that I get a vote that counts as much as his (we actually get along pretty well)....

    1. I worked the polls a few times, a long day's work for very little pay. Every poll worker I asked told me they vote absentee.

  2. Great news, thanks Prof.Hubbard for all your hard work.

    1. You're welcome, Luis. Always nice to know people are reading this stuff.

  3. But what about all the rigged elections and stuff?

    Just kidding. Thanks for this. We have "absentee voting in person" at the local library, so I voted about ten days ago, just so I could tune out the noise, but it hasn't helped much. It seemed to me that the 70% disapproval rating among women from last April was enough, but the reporters need to sell news, I suppose.

    1. A crazy negative race on both sides, but as always, if you are bad at something, Trump is worse.

      Except maybe golf. And grabbing pussy.

  4. Seems the most accurate poll in Alaska has the race there a statistical tie.
    The other thing, the undecided poll is under 5%. That leaves Donny pretty much capped.

    1. I use the median polls, so Alaska is still relatively safe for Trump. Huge data entry night tonight, I'll give a Twitter/Facebook update.

      Twitter: @ConfidenceofVic