Sunday, October 9, 2016

Clinton vs. Trump.
9 October 2016,
30 days from the election

Very good week for Clinton and all with polls taken before the audio tape emerged. Sam Wang at Princeton, who is much better known than I am and has a model very close to mine, thinks Republicans are abandoning Trump not because of the tape, but because they see his ship is sinking and the tape gives them an excuse. It will be interesting to see how the rescinded endorsements effect the Senate races.

Here is the list of states and district, from most likely to go Trump to most likely to go Clinton.  RED indicates a state moving from one category to another in Trump's direction, while BLUE means the state moved in Clinton's direction.

Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]): ND NE-3 WY NE-1 ID WV AL NE AR OK MT MS KS KY UT SD LA TN SC MO TX NE-2 IN
Total: 161

Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): GA AK IA AZ ME-2
Total: 37

Toss-up: NV
Total: 6
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton): OH CO FL NC PA NM NH WI ME MI
Total: 128

Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): MN VA DE CT NJ WA OR RI ME-1 MA IL NY VT HI MD CA DC

 The current count 



All the movement from one category to another favored Clinton this week, the biggest move being Ohio switching sides. The best news for Trump is Nevada staying at 50%-50% and Florida and Colorado becoming more competitive for him, though still favoring Clinton.

By next week, the polls will reflect the Access Hollywood tape, the Republican defections and the results of the second debate. As I type this, the debate hasn't happened yet, but this is a Town Hall style format. The conventional wisdom is that going negative in a Town Hall is the quickest way to lose. Hillary doesn't have to get under his skin, she's already done that.

And for Clinton supporters, I now bring out the dessert.

 Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 153

The battleground states ranked by pqn:

(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. FL: 72%, 38%, 29
2. OH: 64%, 36%, 18
3. PA: 76%, 24%, 20

. NC: 72%, 28%, 15

5. AZ: 31%, 69%, 11
6. CO: 67%, 33%, 9
7. NV: 50%, 50%, 6
8. WI: 89%, 11%, 10
9. MI: 94%, 6%, 16
10. GA: 5%, 95%, 16

11. IA: 13%, 87%, 6
12. NM: 88%, 12%, 4

13. IN: 4%, 96%, 11 
14. NH: 89%, 11%, 4
15. MN: 96%, 4%, 10

Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Clinton 97.1%
Trump    2.9%

As I have stated many times, my system gives a snapshot of what would happen if the election were held today. While election day is now a month off, I would say Trump really has about two weeks to do something he has not done once this year. He needs to have an actual lead in states and districts that add up to 269 electoral votes. (My assumption is that if he can do that, the GOP will still hold the House and he would win the tie.) 

I do not claim to be psychic. I have no idea what news we will see in the weeks ahead. I have a hard time guessing what stories are going to gain traction. I would have assumed Trump CEO Steve Bannon being outed as an anti-Semitic wife beater was going to be a big deal and Trump's treatment of weight gaining beauty queen twenty years after the fact wouldn't even be important twelve hours later. 

For those of you keeping score at home, that's Reality 2, Hubbard 0.
But I will bring up my simile first written on May Day. This election will be like an anaconda swallowing a pig: long, slow, ugly and inevitable. It has been long, slow and ugly every damned day, but it wasn't completely inevitable for a few weeks in September.

September is over. I stand by the simile.

Back next Saturday to check out the Senate. Keep calm and make sure your friends are registered. 


  1. Thanks, Prof. Hubbard. Big fan, both here and on Twitter. Question: we keep hearing about the parties' and campaigns' internal polls (based, if I'm not mistaken on actual voter rolls) that are showing even greater divide (than the reported polls). Do any of the aggregators & averagers & analysts have access to those numbers? Are any of them available on the 'net for amateurs like me to see? Who in the commentariat tends to signal the results of those proprietary polls?

    Thanks! Keep up the great work.

    1. Hi, Jim, thanks for the kind words. I'm an amateur, so I get what I can find on sites like Real Clear Politics and the 538 updates. Most aggregators are using the numbers the general public can get.

      The short answer is: I don't know if any aggregators are using proprietary data, and I certainly am not. I'm just one guy in front of a keyboard, same as you.

      Again, thanks for stopping by.