Saturday, October 1, 2016

The Senate Races
1 October 2016

It's October! There were times this summer when it felt like we'd never get here.

This week there were 13 Senate polls overall, a relatively low number. Only two states showed any major movement, one getting closer but not actually close in Florida, the other a very tight race leaning to the Republican side.
Here are the changes from last week.

Probability of Republicans holding the Senate outright: 43.8%, up from 37.5%
Probability of a 50-50 split: 30.7%, down from 32.1% 
Probability of the Democrats taking the Senate back: 25.5%, down from 28.6%

Races that changed.
1. In Pennsylvania, GOP incumbent Pat Toomey is now a slight favorite to beat challenger Katie McGinty at 54% to 46%. Last week, she was favored 63% to 37% and the week before, it was a 50% to 50% call. Right now, this is the most volatile race.

2. Florida isn't close, but it's getting closer. Marco Rubio was a 92% to 8% favorite last week, but that slipped to 86% to 14%.

For the fourth consecutive week, the two most likely outcomes are the Republicans with either 50 or 51 seats. The Democrats taking the Senate back is the third most likely outcome.

Back tomorrow with the numbers in the presidential race.

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