Solid Trump (more than 95% Confidence of Victory [CoV]):
ND NE-3 NE-1 WY WV NE LA AR AL OK ID TN MT KS NE-2 KY MS SD SC
Leaning Trump (between 50% and 95% CoV for Trump): IN MO TX AK GA
Toss-up: OH UT
Leaning Clinton (between 50% and 95% for Clinton):
IA ME-2 AZ NC NV FL PA
Solid Clinton (more than 95% CoV for Clinton): NM WI NH MN CO ME CT ME-1 WA NJ OR DE MI VA RI IL NY MD VT HI MA CA DC
The current count
The best news this week gives to Trump is that deal is not sealed in Ohio.
The worst news for Trump is that the deal is also not sealed in Utah and the manner in which it is no longer clear makes the news even worse for the Republican nominee.
There have been seven polls in the past two weeks in Utah that have checked the numbers for Evan McMullin, a last ditch candidate put up by the Never Trump people, a candidate without even a party affiliation. While McMullin gets less national press than Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, in Utah his poll numbers are rising quickly, the most recent poll from Emerson showing him in the lead. The Confidence of Victory method can deal with races with three or more fairly even competitors, and the current numbers give Trump a 47% chance to win, Clinton a 28% chance and McMullin at 25%. If any candidate gets over 50% in the three-way race, my system will give them the nod.
It's added a little spice to a contest that doesn't look like it has many surprises left.
And now the Probability of Victory numbers.
Here are the 15 states considered this week's by the algorithm.
Trump's non-battleground count of electors: 128
The battleground states ranked by pqn:
(Clinton %, Trump %, electors)
1. OH: 50%, 50%, 18
2. FL: 85%, 15%, 29
3. NC: 70%, 30%, 15
4. TX: 8%, 92%, 38
5. AZ: 60%, 40%, 11
6. GA: 19%, 81%, 16
7: UT: 53%, 47%, 6 (53% is Clinton + McMullin)
8: PA: 92%, 8%, 20
9. IA: 59%, 41%, 6
10. NV: 77%, 23%, 6
11. MO: 9%, 91%, 10
12. IN: 6%, 94%, 11
13. AK: 9%, 91%, 3
14. WI: 97%, 3%, 10
15. ME-2: 59%, 41%, 1
Current probability of victory if the election were held today:
Just 16 days left until this mess is officially over. I have no idea how the House is going and as you can see from yesterday's post, there is still some drama in the Senate. But when it comes to the race that is taking up the vast majority of the discussion, the drama is nearly non-existent.