Monday, November 7, 2016

Final predictions,
7 November 2016


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Here is the map I am expecting for Clinton vs. Trump. Iowa and Nevada were both 50-50 toss-ups this morning, but new polls have split the difference, with Iowa leaning Trump and Nevada leading Clinton. Here's the numbers I am hanging my hat on.

Electoral college count
Clinton 323
Trump 215

This does not take into account two electors from the Clinton delegation in Washington saying they won't vote for her. Who knows, they might get kicked out of the club, we'll wait and see.  Here is the graph of my weekly snapshots. The odds right now are about 99% to 1% in Clinton's favor.

   I've read accounts that if Trump can't win, he'd like to out-perform Romney's 206. He's got a good chance to do that, but he isn't facing Obama, who is a much more popular figure in his eighth year than either Clinton or Trump.

The Senate prediction

This prediction is split into good news and bad news. The order depends on your political persuasion.


The GOP currently holds 54 seats to the Democratic/Independent coalitions' 46.  My algorithm considers the Democrats will hold all ten seats they are defending, including the close race in Nevada for the seat Harry Reid is vacating. The algorithm predicts three losses for the GOP in Illinois, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. There are four very close races still in the mix, but the forecast from my algorithm says the GOP will hold New Hampshire, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. This will mean the GOP will have 51 seats and retain control of the Senate. I do not have the resources to predict the House, but this doesn't look like the kind of landslide that can make that chamber switch sides.

My competitive side would love to see my algorithm go 90-0 in predictions, but if I miss any, I hope some of my errors give control of the Senate to the Democrats. It's hard to pay attention to anything but Trump this year, but I'll take this moment to remind people that the Republican Party has very few places where they part company with Trump on policy and they have decided they would rather take hostages than enact legislation through the democratic process. Hillary is not going to have an easy gig, but a Democratic Senate would make it a little easier.

Go out and vote and if you are on the left side of the political spectrum, vote down ticket (!) and hope for the best in the Senate. It will take a evil miracle for Trump to come back from his current position.
     

12 comments:

  1. Just saw Plouffe has HRC at 348 EVs. gives her Ohio, among others. That would be big

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    1. That would certainly not match what the public polls have said. I've input ten polls taken since Halloween and Trump has the lead in seven. Hope he's right, but I don't trust operatives slinging numbers, not even Democratic operatives.

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  2. Thanks Prof. Hubbard for all the great work you did during this election. I've referred several friends and colleagues here as an antidote to the "538 Freakout Syndrome" that many folks have experienced.

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    1. I know, right? I had a Facebook friend send a message saying "What happens when Silver is right and you are wrong?" The possibility that it would go the other way around did not occur to her.

      For me, Nate's numbers are like 1980s vintage Microsoft products. Both are "industry leaders", but I'm not sold on the quality.

      Thanks for stopping by and getting the word out.

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  3. I've been a silent follower all election cycle but I wanted to thank you for all the work you've done. Reading your numbers has helped keep me sane throughout this election cycle.

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    1. Always happy to find out it's not just my immediate family reading this stuff.

      Thanks for letting me know. I appreciate it.

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  4. Done! in addition to the top of the ticket, I had the distinct pleasure of being able to vote for Russ Feingold and Gwen Moore for Congress...

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    1. I got porn, weed, the death penalty and banning plastic bags. Some of these are interconnected, but I can't tell you which ones.

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  5. Interesting. The GOP runs the worst candidate in history and takes it's usual states. As a test in 2020 they should run a stuffed animal and see if it can duplicate 2016. I am betting it would.

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    1. As a bonus, a stuffed animal would have made a better president than Trump would.

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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