The Iowa polls:Second week of January

The Dems: Last week, the data set used to discuss the situation in January was only two polls, which for me is the absolute bare minimum. It is now up to five polls, a more robust sampling, and the story has changed very little. Hillary leads in three of the five polls, Bernie leads in the other two. Every poll has both candidates getting 40% or more, none has anyone getting 50% yet. For O'Malley, one outlier poll has him at 8%, the rest have him between 3% to 5%.

So the average of the five polls now has Hillary with a 0.6 point lead. Since this is effectively a two candidate race, I can use my Confidence of Victory method and give Hillary about a 70% chance to come out ahead using the median poll, where her lead is 42% to 40% in a poll of 504 likely voters. As more polls come in, these numbers are very likely to change, but in what direction I cannot say.

The GOP: We could say Iowa effectively looks like a two person race, but I am reluctant to use the Confidence of Victory method when the top two candidates account for barely over half the responses, unlike the Democratic side where the top two candidates get about 90%. The January numbers are now based on six polls, and the respective positions of the four top candidates have not changed in any appreciable way, with Ted 'The Snake' Cruz still holding a slim half a point lead over Donald Trump. A story on the fivethirtyeight.com website rates the Cruz ground game as much better than Trump's, but for a news organization that prides itself on using math well, the method used for this story is slipshod.

A number that looks unimportant that I still find interesting is the slowing rate of decline for The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson in Iowa. In New Hampshire, his numbers are down among the no-hopers, but in Iowa he is still dominating establishment guys like Christie, Kasich and Jeb:(, all of whom are in the race for second in the Granite State. Once again, the ground game can make a big difference in Iowa, where turnout is tiny compared to New Hampshire, so I would actually be surprised if the polls are a perfect predictor of the candidate's relative positions when The Voters of the Corn actually come out on February 1st.

Tomorrow, the numbers from New Hampshire.

The Iowa polls:First week of January

 The Dems: Let's start with the most dramatic news. It's only the average of two polls, but Hillary's 16 point lead in the Iowa polls has slipped down to zero. I always have to add the warning that polls don't do a great job of predicting caucuses, but if I'm asked to pontificate, it now looks like it's all about organization and enthusiasm. It's my assumption Hillary has an organizational advantage and Bernie's folks have the enthusiasm.

I'm confident there will be more polling data by next week, but right now this is the most dramatic polling news of the new year.

The GOP: The dramatic story last month was the remarkable rise of Ted 'The Snake' Cruz in Iowa. News reports in December said Trump had no organization in Iowa, but more recent reports say that problem has been fixed. The numbers are a little hard to read on this graph without clicking on it to expand it, but Cruz does have a slim lead of 28.3% to 27.8% based on the average of four polls. Ben Carson continues to slide, but his numbers are still twice as high as his nearest trailing competitors Chris Christie and Jeb:(. It's only three weeks out, and it looks like it would take a miracle for anyone other than Trump or Cruz to win this thing.

More polls next weekend.

The New Hampshire Polls:First week of January

 The Dems: It is the prejudice of an old man for me to think New Hampshire is more important than Iowa, but if I may defend my position, Iowa will be a test of the most committed campaign's ability to get out their loyalists, while New Hampshire is about getting out a substantial percentage of the voting age population.

There were only five New Hampshire polls in December and so far, there are only three in January. The story hasn't changed much since the change from November. Bernie Sanders holds a small but steady lead over Hillary.

The GOP: Just as the press is giving more coverage to the Republican race, and of course Donald Trump in particular, there were more polls of their contest in December and in January than there were polls of the Democratic race.

The race for first place has no drama at all, but there is a fierce competition for second through sixth. Right now, Marco Rubio is alone in second at 13.3% in an average of four polls, while four candidates - Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, Jeb:(, Chris Christie and John Kasich - are all within spitting distance of one another at around 10%. I am breaking the rules I set for myself to mention everyone above None of the Above, but the crowd between 3% and 5% - Rand Paul, The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina - don't show any signs of gaining any traction.

Tomorrow: The earliest polls from Iowa.

The National Polls: End of December and First Week of January

 The GOP: Welcome to January, only three weeks from the shit getting real. While I am keeping the basic schedule for the time being - national polls Sunday, New Hampshire pools Monday, Iowa polls Tuesday - once we get close to votes being cast, the schedule will change. One thing that is changing is we are losing the Non-Politicians vs. Politicians graph. We all know the non-politician that matters is Trump. No point in lumping him in with also-rans like Carson and Fiorina.

I didn't report last week because there was a polling drought during Christmas week, and the first week in January is only slightly better. I absolutely do not consider any change from the grid point before this one a trend. The only thing that looks clear is Trump is in first nationally and Ted 'The Snake' Cruz is in second. The top four here are the top four in Iowa, except that Cruz is ahead of Trump. In New Hampshire, Carson is not in the picture, but Jeb:(, Kasich and Christie are above None of the Above. More details in the next few days.

The Dems: Is this a trend for Bernie Sanders? I would say it's too soon to tell until net week. The polling drought affected both parties, so I don't completely trust the most recent numbers.

On the other hand, I will give a teaser that Sanders does look like he has some good news in the early states. To find out more, come back tomorrow and Tuesday for New Hampshire and Iowa, respectively.

The Iowa Polls:Fourth Week of December

 The Dems: Only one poll tracking Iowa has been registered since last week, and it gave good news to O'Malley and Clinton, both taking a few points from Sanders. Overall, the relative positions remain steady, with Clinton holding on to a double digit lead over Sanders, while O'Malley trails far behind, still hoping to get ahead of None of the Above.

The GOP: My standard operating procedure is to track the candidates who are doing better than the None of the Above average, and I will admit to fudging those rules in two cases. I should ignore O'Malley on the Democratic side and should give some credit to Jeb:(, who is now at 5%, slightly above the 4.6% number for None of the Above number for December. Here are my reasons for the inconsistencies.

1. On the Democratic side, there is so little data to track, adding O'Malley to the mix doesn't make the graph any harder to read.

2. Jeb:( is not making a surge, the NotA has taken a plunge. Jeb:( has actually gone down, from 5.5% in November to 5.0% in December, not even half the very weak numbers of The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson.

As for the leaders, the news gets better and better for the two de facto front runners, Donald Trump and Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, while Rubio and Carson are slipping slightly.

This will be the last report on the blog in 2015 and on Sunday the 3 of January the weekly reports will begin again. I wish all my readers a Happy New Year and the polling starts to get serious, especially in the first two states to report.

The New Hampshire polls:Fourth Week of December

 The GOP: As December winds down, the big change in this graph is the disappearance of The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson and the appearance for the first time of John Kasich, marked in light green. As you can see, he hasn't made a big advance, but is now in fifth place and above None of the Above for the time being. Jeb:( is in sixth and might make an appearance next month if his numbers get a little better. Carson is in seventh now and his only good news is that nobody below him looks primed for a run.

The Dems: Only one new polls since the last time the info was posted and it showed Hillary with a small lead. Sanders still has the lead in the polling average for the month.

Tomorrow: the monthly averages from Iowa polling.

The National Polls:Fourth Week of December

 Non-politicians vs politicians: This week, I start with graph of the sum of Trump/Carson/Fiorina vs. Everybody Else, ignoring the None of the Above. You don't have to be a fan of the original Ghostbusters to see that The Streams Have Crossed. Technically, the non-politicians have the slenderest of leads at 50.1% to 49.9%, but you get the idea. As of now, Donald Trump is THE non-politician. Ben Carson is in fourth place nationally, but he is re-defining the term "campaign in disarray", while Carly Fiorina's numbers are in the Old Dead Animal category.

 The GOP: Here is how I look at this graph.

1. Donald Trump is obviously leading, but I don't know what the ceiling of his upward trend is, or even if the trend is truly still upward.

2. Ted 'The Snake' Cruz has a true upward trend. I can't say that with certainty about anybody else whose numbers are above the None of the Above threshold.

3. The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson is still falling, though the rate of change this week was less than worst tumbles this month.

Here's what I know about the stuff I don't show.

1. Chris Christie and Jeb:( are in a flat-footed tie for fifth/sixth place. The Christie camp should spin this as good news. The Jeb:( camp... I have no idea how bad things are there, and I worked at failed start-ups in Silicon Valley back in the day.

The Dems: No real change from last week worth mentioning. I get the feeling Iowa is going to be much more important to the Democratic nomination that it will be to the Republicans, unless Trump takes an absolute pounding.

Tomorrow, the New Hampshire numbers.