Tuesday, January 12, 2016

The Iowa polls:
First week of January

 The Dems: Let's start with the most dramatic news. It's only the average of two polls, but Hillary's 16 point lead in the Iowa polls has slipped down to zero. I always have to add the warning that polls don't do a great job of predicting caucuses, but if I'm asked to pontificate, it now looks like it's all about organization and enthusiasm. It's my assumption Hillary has an organizational advantage and Bernie's folks have the enthusiasm.

I'm confident there will be more polling data by next week, but right now this is the most dramatic polling news of the new year.

The GOP: The dramatic story last month was the remarkable rise of Ted 'The Snake' Cruz in Iowa. News reports in December said Trump had no organization in Iowa, but more recent reports say that problem has been fixed. The numbers are a little hard to read on this graph without clicking on it to expand it, but Cruz does have a slim lead of 28.3% to 27.8% based on the average of four polls. Ben Carson continues to slide, but his numbers are still twice as high as his nearest trailing competitors Chris Christie and Jeb:(. It's only three weeks out, and it looks like it would take a miracle for anyone other than Trump or Cruz to win this thing.

More polls next weekend.

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