Sunday, January 10, 2016

The National Polls: End of December and First Week of January

 The GOP: Welcome to January, only three weeks from the shit getting real. While I am keeping the basic schedule for the time being - national polls Sunday, New Hampshire pools Monday, Iowa polls Tuesday - once we get close to votes being cast, the schedule will change. One thing that is changing is we are losing the Non-Politicians vs. Politicians graph. We all know the non-politician that matters is Trump. No point in lumping him in with also-rans like Carson and Fiorina.

I didn't report last week because there was a polling drought during Christmas week, and the first week in January is only slightly better. I absolutely do not consider any change from the grid point before this one a trend. The only thing that looks clear is Trump is in first nationally and Ted 'The Snake' Cruz is in second. The top four here are the top four in Iowa, except that Cruz is ahead of Trump. In New Hampshire, Carson is not in the picture, but Jeb:(, Kasich and Christie are above None of the Above. More details in the next few days.

The Dems: Is this a trend for Bernie Sanders? I would say it's too soon to tell until net week. The polling drought affected both parties, so I don't completely trust the most recent numbers.

On the other hand, I will give a teaser that Sanders does look like he has some good news in the early states. To find out more, come back tomorrow and Tuesday for New Hampshire and Iowa, respectively.

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