Monday, January 11, 2016

The New Hampshire Polls:
First week of January

 The Dems: It is the prejudice of an old man for me to think New Hampshire is more important than Iowa, but if I may defend my position, Iowa will be a test of the most committed campaign's ability to get out their loyalists, while New Hampshire is about getting out a substantial percentage of the voting age population.

There were only five New Hampshire polls in December and so far, there are only three in January. The story hasn't changed much since the change from November. Bernie Sanders holds a small but steady lead over Hillary.

The GOP: Just as the press is giving more coverage to the Republican race, and of course Donald Trump in particular, there were more polls of their contest in December and in January than there were polls of the Democratic race.

The race for first place has no drama at all, but there is a fierce competition for second through sixth. Right now, Marco Rubio is alone in second at 13.3% in an average of four polls, while four candidates - Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, Jeb:(, Chris Christie and John Kasich - are all within spitting distance of one another at around 10%. I am breaking the rules I set for myself to mention everyone above None of the Above, but the crowd between 3% and 5% - Rand Paul, The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina - don't show any signs of gaining any traction.

Tomorrow: The earliest polls from Iowa.

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