Sunday, December 27, 2015

The National Polls:
Fourth Week of December

 Non-politicians vs politicians: This week, I start with graph of the sum of Trump/Carson/Fiorina vs. Everybody Else, ignoring the None of the Above. You don't have to be a fan of the original Ghostbusters to see that The Streams Have Crossed. Technically, the non-politicians have the slenderest of leads at 50.1% to 49.9%, but you get the idea. As of now, Donald Trump is THE non-politician. Ben Carson is in fourth place nationally, but he is re-defining the term "campaign in disarray", while Carly Fiorina's numbers are in the Old Dead Animal category.

 The GOP: Here is how I look at this graph.

1. Donald Trump is obviously leading, but I don't know what the ceiling of his upward trend is, or even if the trend is truly still upward.

2. Ted 'The Snake' Cruz has a true upward trend. I can't say that with certainty about anybody else whose numbers are above the None of the Above threshold.

3. The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson is still falling, though the rate of change this week was less than worst tumbles this month.

Here's what I know about the stuff I don't show.

1. Chris Christie and Jeb:( are in a flat-footed tie for fifth/sixth place. The Christie camp should spin this as good news. The Jeb:( camp... I have no idea how bad things are there, and I worked at failed start-ups in Silicon Valley back in the day.

The Dems: No real change from last week worth mentioning. I get the feeling Iowa is going to be much more important to the Democratic nomination that it will be to the Republicans, unless Trump takes an absolute pounding.

Tomorrow, the New Hampshire numbers.

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