Sunday, January 31, 2016

The Iowa polls:
Final post before tomorrow's caucuses

 The Dems: Bernie Sanders has made a race of Iowa, according to the opinion polls, but both the monthly average numbers and the median polls says it's still advantage Clinton. The average lead is higher than the median lead, largely due to one crazy outlier that gave Hillary a 29 point lead, but the median lead has been steadily consistent:

Entire month's median lead: 2 points for Clinton
Last two weeks' median lead: 2 points for Clinton
Last week's median lead: 2.5 points for Clinton

Of course, tomorrow is the proof of the pudding.

The GOP: The point the media has been drumming home this month is Nobody Likes Ted Cruz. By Washington standards, he is just as much of an outsider as Trump, Carson or Fiorina. That said, he did a great job in Iowa making it a two-man race once the numbers of The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson tanked back in November. But the average poll in January gives Trump about a 3 point edge.

The median lead for the Republicans has not been as consistent.

Entire month's median lead: 2 points for Trump
Last two weeks' median lead: 5 points for Trump
Last week's median lead: 3 points for Trump

Both races are proportional, so all four candidates should get delegates. The big question is about organization, especially Trump's. News stories agreed in December he had no organization to speak of, but in January, he clearly paid for some boots on the ground, though stories disagree on how good that organization is.

Tomorrow, it's a report on the New Hampshire numbers, Tuesday a re-cap of Iowa and Wednesday, the national polls.

I've been keep tabs for quite a while. Now the shit gets real.

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