Tuesday, January 26, 2016

The National Polls:
Third week of January

The GOP: The national polls aren't showing much drama right now. Trump's lead is yuuge, Cruz and Rubio aren't moving much, Carson is taking forever to disappear and Jeb:( is the only candidate not listed who has even 5%.

The next time I post these numbers, Iowa will be in the books. Conventional wisdom is that outside of Iowa and New Hampshire, only political junkies like me (and since you are reading this, you) are paying attention, though I do not know how anyone who watches the news can avoid hearing about Trump. Maybe when more people take an interest, all those good and sensible conservatives George Will and David Brooks love so much will put their support behind one of the "mainstream" Republicans, but that is a big maybe. When I started this blog, I didn't think Trump would still be leading in late January, and certainly didn't think his lead would be so commanding. I thought he was going to be one of a series of flashes in the pan before a party favorite like Rubio or Jeb:( finally got enough delegates. I'm slowly getting used to the idea that the fever that grips the right wing voters is not going to break soon.

The Dems: Did I write there's not much drama on the Republican side. There is none with the Democrats this week. Both Hillary's and Bernie's numbers stayed completely flat compared to the week before and the only sign the polling companies didn't just phone it in is a tiny uptick in the None of the Above numbers at the expense of Martin O'Malley. I do expect the national numbers to change once Iowa and New Hampshire are in the books.

Next update: the last numbers from Iowa will be posted on Sunday.  See you then.

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