Sunday, January 24, 2016

The Iowa polls:
Third week of January

 The GOP: Donald Trump has a lead over Ted 'The Snake' Cruz in the average of polls in January. His lead is 1.3 points in the average and of the ten polls taken in January, Trump has the lead in six. His lead in the median polls is 1.5 points. I consider it a good sign when average and median are close to agreeing.

A lot of GOP races are winner take all, but Iowa is proportional. Unless there is a huge upset, both Trump and Cruz together should get the lion's share of the delegates and the difference in number between them will be minimal.

The Dems: Clinton is drawing away from Sanders in recent polling. Her lead in the average is 4.6 points, but only 3 in the median. This is due in large part to one big outlier that says she's ahead 59 to 30. The best poll for her other than this one gives her a nine point lead. It's very rare that an outlier like this is accurate.

The Democratic party process in Iowa is more convoluted than the Republican, the Feb. 1 caucus being just the first of a three step process.

Tomorrow, a report on the New Hampshire numbers.

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