Monday, December 14, 2015

The New Hampshire polls: Second week of December

Welcome to the first installment of state poll watching, in particular New Hampshire. Sometimes, dominance in the national polls does not translate into dominance in every state poll, as we will see today and tomorrow, when we look at the Iowa numbers.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump does have a lead in the Granite State, though not quite as dominant as his lead nationwide, and it's Marco Rubio in second. Ben Carson's fall from grace in New Hampshire is much steeper than his national slippage and he is currently hovering below the None of the Above numbers.

Chris Christie is currently in fourth in New Hampshire and just barely behind Ted 'The Snake' Cruz, much better than his anemic national numbers putting him in sixth place, barely in the lead of the group hovering around 3%.

Not shown on the chart are Jeb:(, tied with Carson at 7.3%, and Kasich, polling at 7%. They aren't part of the picture because they haven't been above None of the Above either in November or December. If they improve, they could be included in the overall picture.

And then we have the Democrats, where we see our first inversion. Bernie Sanders is in the lead this month, though that only means two polls so far. (The paucity of polls is the reason I'm going with the monthly picture. This might change in January.) I can't predict if the press will give Sanders more coverage if he wins and makes it a horse race - the press loves horse races- or if they will accept the conventional wisdom that winning in New Hampshire is not a surprise because he's from Vermont. I think it will be the former, and if he pulls off a win in Iowa as well, then the press will run with the "Hillary's in trouble" meme for sure.

What's Bernie's situation in Iowa? Stop by tomorrow to find out.

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