Sunday, December 6, 2015

Post #19: The beginning of December

The post last week was based on only three polls and the same is true this week, though obviously three different polls. Nearly every big jump or big drop has had a course correction. We start with the Non-politicians advantage over the politicians, which appears to have stopped its slide for the time being. I think the trend will continue to slip over the next few weeks because both Carson's and Fiorina's numbers have been deflating over time. How long the love affair with Donald Trump lasts is anybody's guess, but he may very soon be doing all the heavy lifting.

The GOP: Donald Trump had a big jump last week, but came back down. His general trend is still positive.

Ben Carson plummeted last week, but he came back up. His general trend is still negative, but he is back in second place, with Ted "The Snake" Cruz in third and Marco Rubio in fourth. Jeb:( is still in fifth at around 6%. No one in the lower tier is above 3% this week. I speculated Mike Huckabee might make a run if Carson's numbers slipped, but his numbers just sit there like an old dead animal. I don't know how anyone now polling less than Jeb:( is going to make their mark in the next two months, and anyone who stinks the place out in both Iowa and New Hampshire is pretty much toast.

The one thing that makes me trust this week's three polls over last week's three polls is that None of the Above also bounced back. The big drop was due to a poll that said the undecided vote was at -2%. This is the perfect example of why I like more polls on which to base a weekly average, mainly to give the outliers less power. That said, Trump's alleged slump is based on a single outlier as well. We may not have seen Peak Trump yet.

The Dems: Once again, big changes that were shown in the graph last Sunday leveled out some this week. Hillary's peak performance came back down, but she still is well above 50% in the national average. Bernie had a good week and Martin O'Malley is back to polling under None of the Above. I cannot say with any confidence what the actual percentages for each candidate are, but I am convinced the relative positions - Hillary leading, Sanders second, O'Malley under None of the Above - are accurate.

Another update next week.

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