Tuesday, December 22, 2015

The Iowa Polls: Third week of December

 The GOP: Starting with the Republicans in Iowa, so far the most interesting contest. Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump in the polling, but Iowa is a tricky place to poll because likely caucus attendees are very hard to find. With this low turnout, the polls even in the last week before the contest can be way off. That said, Iowa is about energizing your supporters and have a good organization on the ground. Trump had no trouble with the first part, but reporters are saying it is really hard to find Trump organizers. Maybe he's trying some Just In Time hiring practices, or maybe this is just another of his many flaws as a businessman.

Here are the changes in the numbers from the previous December averages.

Cruz: up 1.4 percentage points
Trump: up 1.1 percentage points
Rubio: up 0.1 percentage points
Carson: down 1.1 percentage points
None of the Above: down 1.4 percentage points

As you can see, the sum of these five categories have changed only a little, so there hasn't been much movement in the numbers of the folks not mentioned here. The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson is in serious free fall, but so is None of the Above. Jeb:( is now above None of the Above, but only slightly. If he has another good week and NotA stays low, he might get on the graph as his Festivus present.

The Dems: All the candidates went up from last week, taking their votes from the None of the Above voters.

Hillary: up 0.6 percentage points
Bernie: up 0.3 percentage points
None of the Above: down 1.1 percentage points
O'Malley: up 0.2 percentage points

The gap isn't closing for Sanders, but once again, I have to say Iowa is a caucus state and by their nature, they are tough to predict. I have no idea how well organized the two main candidates are in Iowa, but they are pros and I expect they have boots on the ground in sufficient numbers. The big question will be supporter enthusiasm and that means Bernie has a chance to surprise.

More numbers next week.

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