Monday, December 21, 2015

The New Hampshire polls:
Third Week of December

The GOP: The slope graph shows the change in polling averages from November to December, but I am also going to list the change in the December average from week to week.

Trump +1.2
Cruz +1.0
Rubio +0.3
Carson -0.8
Christie +0.4
None of the Above:-1.8

Since I am supposed to be tracking the candidates above the None of the Above threshold, it's time to say goodbye to The Completely Sane and Honest Ben Carson. This chart shows him in fifth, but as of the latest polls, he is now in seventh, trailing Jeb:( and John Kasich. Barring a miracle, his numbers will not be part of the picture next week in New Hampshire, though he does remain in fourth place in Iowa and well ahead of the guys jockeying for fifth.

The Dems: Bernie Sanders had a good week, extending his lead over Hillary.

Sanders +3.0
Clinton +1.0
None of the Above -2.5
O'Malley -1.5

Of course, Iowa comes before New Hampshire and a good showing in the caucuses will effect the campaign coverage at the very least. A view of both races in The Hawkeye State tomorrow.


  1. Nice work. I've been checking this every Monday for the last several weeks, since you got a link from Mock Paper Scissors, through the rise and fall of Carson. The GoP is shooting itself in the foot, cutting its nose off to spite its face, I don't know if there's a metaphor for how royally they are offing themselves. Maybe 'head so far up its own ass, its doing summersaults, rolling right over a cliff.'

    1. I hope they are digging their grave, but the Democrats have issues about showing up on Election Day.

      Still, I think if Trump is their nominee, the press will eventually grow weary of him. I think he has a real chance to lose Texas and if that happens, it will be a rout on the scale of LBJ-Goldwater or Reagan-Mondale.

      Thanks for stopping by.