Tuesday, December 15, 2015

The Iowa Polls: Second week of December

The Dems: Hillary Clinton's undeniable lead in the national polls is not enough for her to be leading in New Hampshire, but in Iowa it's another story. That said, I noticed a pattern in 2011-2012 that as primaries got closer to actually happening, the numbers could change dramatically as more of the electorate would be paying attention. Is this good or bad for Hillary? Let's look at the three numbers we have at the moment.

National polls: Clinton +25.1%
New Hampshire polls: Sanders +4%
Iowa polls: Clinton +15.8%

This small sample size says more scrutiny is not a good thing for Hillary and can give the Sanders fans some hope. As for O'Malley supporters, the numbers right now say... m'eh.

The GOP: As anyone paying attention knows, I'm putting up all the data on the declared candidates and None of the Above in the Democratic race, but I am not showing the lesser candidates among the GOP. In Iowa, all the dramatic changes are here, as Trump, Rubio and everyone not mentioned have changed less than a percentage point up or down, while three numbers visible on the chart have made big changes.

Cruz: up 12.2 points
Carson: down 8.4 points
None of the Above: down 2.7 points

The net effect looks like lots of Iowans are changing their minds and their new choice is Ted 'The Snake' Cruz. Of course, Trump is apoplectic about the bad news. I would not put it past Trump to simply buy a few thousand eligible Iowans for some single day payment in the $100 range to boost his numbers, though it will make his true believers feel like saps for showing up for free.

Making people feel like saps is standard operating procedure for Trump, so I don't think he'll lose any sleep over it.

More news next week.

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