Sunday, December 13, 2015
National polls: Second week of December
The advantage the non-politicians (Trump, Carson, Fiorina) have over the rest of the GOP field shrunk a little. Given Carson's extended slump and Fiorina's hovering around 3%, I think these numbers could tighten up even more. Of course, Trump is still getting good news in the polls, but so are Cruz, Rubio and occasionally some of the folks in the back of the pack, notably Chris Christie in New Hampshire.
I would also like to say I predicted in mid-November that the advantage for non-politicians would continue a downward turn by Chanukah, and now that it's Chanukah, I can a small victory in a very mild prediction.
New features this week: It is my experience from 2011-12 that the national polls give a rough idea, but the state polls are where the real action is. Accordingly, I will be publishing three times a week starting tomorrow.
Sundays: Still the same stuff I've been doing since August, national poll averages for the week for the GOP and Dems, as well as tracking the Non-politicians vs. politicians on the Republican side.
Mondays: Monthly averages for the top candidates in New Hampshire in both parties.
Tuesdays: Monthly averages for the top candidates in Iowa in both parties.
As a teaser, I can say that each state has bad news for at least one front runner.
Tune in tomorrow!