Sunday, December 13, 2015

National polls: Second week of December

 Politicians vs. non-politicians: The two weeks prior to this had only three polls each. This week has nine polls. Given that much data, I think we can spot some trends.

The advantage the non-politicians (Trump, Carson, Fiorina) have over the rest of the GOP field shrunk a little. Given Carson's extended slump and Fiorina's hovering around 3%, I think these numbers could tighten up even more. Of course, Trump is still getting good news in the polls, but so are Cruz, Rubio and occasionally some of the folks in the back of the pack, notably Chris Christie in New Hampshire.

I would also like to say I predicted in mid-November that the advantage for non-politicians would continue a downward turn by Chanukah, and now that it's Chanukah, I can a small victory in a very mild prediction.

The GOP: There is some jockeying for second place, but Donald Trump is still the national leader. For the first time, Ted 'The Snake' Cruz is in second all by himself, Marco Rubio in third and Ben Carson is in fourth. I would not be surprised to see Carson slip under the None of the Above threshold by the middle of next month, if not sooner. (Count this as a prediction made.) To give a sneak preview of the features starting this week, his numbers in Iowa are bad and his trend in New Hampshire actually sucks.

The Dems: If we ignore the last two weeks due to small sample size, right now the national trends are minimal, Hillary and Bernie down slightly, None of the Above and O'Malley up, but also just slightly.

New features this week: It is my experience from 2011-12 that the national polls give a rough idea, but the state polls are where the real action is.  Accordingly, I will be publishing three times a week starting tomorrow.

Sundays: Still the same stuff I've been doing since August, national poll averages for the week for the GOP and Dems, as well as tracking the Non-politicians vs. politicians on the Republican side.

Mondays: Monthly averages for the top candidates in New Hampshire in both parties.

Tuesdays: Monthly averages for the top candidates in Iowa in both parties.

As a teaser, I can say that each state has bad news for at least one front runner.

Tune in tomorrow!

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